Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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has anyone figured out why this war is happening after all? It doesnt make any sense whatsoever. The real reason behind it, honestly i have read so much and still cant figure out.
I think that basically it was a vanity project for Putin who wanted something as a legacy and "taking back" Ukraine for Mother Russia looked like it would be relatively easy, and result in Russia getting a useful port, and a load of resources.
 
I think that basically it was a vanity project for Putin who wanted something as a legacy and "taking back" Ukraine for Mother Russia looked like it would be relatively easy, and result in Russia getting a useful port, and a load of resources.
Sound way too ambitious, and the preparation for this conquest was very ill, it didnt look like they were up to the task whatsoever! Putin must be having the worlds worst feedback if he really wanted to conquer Ukraine.
 
Cam someone explain what this means ? :o

Something which helped save the UK during WW2, the concept with Ukraine will be the same.

 
Sound way too ambitious, and the preparation for this conquest was very ill, it didnt look like they were up to the task whatsoever! Putin must be having the worlds worst feedback if he really wanted to conquer Ukraine.
There is some suggestion that basically no one wanted to tell him that the Ukranians didn't want to rejoin Russia, or that the people in charge of intelligence gathering etc were telling their superiors (and him) that they'd got loads of Ukranians who wanted back into Russia and had been getting paid to help encourage others, when in reality it seems they either never existed or the money had been going into the pockets of the intelligence officials (always a risk when your system runs on theft and stealing money intended for projects is considered ok).

From memory a number of the first wave vehicles were pretty much MPs and people with dress uniforms, and you really don't take a dress uniform with you when you're the first people in unless you expect to be given a very friendly welcome, if you're expecting to be shot at you tend to take pretty much anything else.
 
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From memory a number of the first wave vehicles were pretty much MPs and people with dress uniforms, and you really don't take a dress uniform with you when you're the first people in unless you expect to be given a very friendly welcome, if you're expecting to be shot at you tend to take pretty much anything else.

I think this is where Zelensky deserves so much credit. Staying in Kyiv I suspect stiffened the resolve of the Ukrainians when the Russians tried their thunder runs. Could have so easily fled the country or into the west of Ukraine which might have caused a collapse and left the troops in the east totally cut off. Instead stayed and systematically won over the leaders of Europe which stiffened their resolve with getting sanctions in place after he told them that he may not ever get to speak to them again.
 
has anyone figured out why this war is happening after all? It doesnt make any sense whatsoever. The real reason behind it, honestly i have read so much and still cant figure out.
The real reason? Only person knows for sure but from Russia's pov this is the last chance they will realistically have of in thier minds of securing thier boarder's by expanding out the Russian federation into places like Transnistria, where there are natural defenses against invasion (rivers, mountain ranges etc). If they don't do it now there won't be enough population coming through in future years to provide adequate boarder security due Russia's low birth rate and declining population.

Where this plan has backfired besides the obvious military balls up in Ukraine is Russia before the war has two neighbors who neutral but are now likely to join NATO meaning Russia will have an additional 800 mile boarder with the very enemy it was trying to shorten it's boarder with. On top of that the extra deaths are just makeing an already bad demographic position much worse.
 
I think that basically it was a vanity project for Putin who wanted something as a legacy and "taking back" Ukraine for Mother Russia looked like it would be relatively easy, and result in Russia getting a useful port, and a load of resources.

Well he's apparently got another vanity project now as it seems his ex gymnast girlfriend is up the tub again...It's said he was furious to learn he was due to become a father once more at 70.
 
Just to come back to this the original claim came from some telegram post AFAIK not any official Ukrainian claim and the Ukrainians have denied claiming they'd sunk it AFAIK.

I think what has happened here is that the rumour started then OSINT types have noticed the activity around that area, reports of helicopters being sent etc.. when in actual fact those were in relation to Snake Island not this claimed hit on a ship - for example, the footage of the TB2 blowing up a helicopter on the island, that was after the air defence system and the boats had been hit so was likely on a rescue mission.


This might be another case of social media posts being conflated, IIRC there were some claims of the troops definitely telling the Russian warship to **** off then all being bombarded and killed but in actual fact, they told it to **** off then were later captured and released, there was footage a few weeks back of one of them meeting Zelensky for example.

Ukraine put out a statement on the 7th, though it only seems to have been picked up on yesterday, officially denying it - claiming it likely started from Russian propaganda sources cloning an official Ukrainian social media page and that any government linked statements about it were a misunderstanding related to the sinking of a landing ship at Snake Island ( https://news.liga.net/politics/news...otoplenii-rossiyskogo-fregata-admiral-makarov ).

For some reason the Makarov vanished from attempts to locate it - but CovertShores seems to have managed to find its position yesterday https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1523723818422120449
 
Ukraine put out a statement on the 7th, though it only seems to have been picked up on yesterday, officially denying it - claiming it likely started from Russian propaganda sources cloning an official Ukrainian social media page and that any government linked statements about it were a misunderstanding related to the sinking of a landing ship at Snake Island ( https://news.liga.net/politics/news...otoplenii-rossiyskogo-fregata-admiral-makarov ).

For some reason the Makarov vanished from attempts to locate it - but CovertShores seems to have managed to find its position yesterday https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1523723818422120449

Yup, that's what I'm referring to. I'm not sure it vanished per se but rather it's not like OSINT types were actively tracking it well to begin with, it's not some civilian aircraft broadcasting its position.

What added to the confusion is the real emergency/need for evacuation that happened as a result of the attacks on snake island.
 
I'm not sure it vanished per se but rather it's not like OSINT types were actively tracking it well to begin with, it's not some civilian aircraft broadcasting its position.

Though they've not been broadcasting through much of this war the Russian navy ships do randomly update via AIS and people have been going through the available satellite imagery frequently - but CovertShores seems to be the only one who is really on the ball with this stuff - there are some others who know what they are doing but seem to be focussing more on China, etc. currently than Ukraine.

On another note few eyes in the sky this morning:

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US must be loving the opportunities to test and improve the ARTEMIS systems and getting their money worth out of those RQ-4s for sure.

Some other stuff up as well, Romanian air-force, Turkish maritime patrol mission, a NATO AWACS that isn't broadcasting, and probably a load of stuff I've no information on.
 
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Well with the Russian presence on snake island obliterated perhaps there should be a NATO operation to provide a safe corridor from Odessa along the coast into Romanian territorial waters.

It doesn’t get in the way of any ongoing Russian operations other than their pointless occasional attacks on Odessa.
 
Regarding Biden's comments worrying that Putin can't find a way out of the Ukraine war - at least as far as retreating goes I don't think Putin is looking for a way out as people keep wanting to believe for some reason. But he does have a point that Putin might prefer to lose a war against NATO (as that would validate his justifications) than a war against Ukraine (which would be a humiliation). But the calculations on that are incredibly fine given the nuclear factor.

Not to say I think Putin's goals ultimately are any different but I do think Putin is starting to realise he has been mislead by those close to him over this situation with Ukraine and hence we are entering a period of recalculation here with potentially unpredictable outcome - I wouldn't be surprised to see some internal drama in the Russian government in the coming weeks.

IMO the only way we see Russia retreating from Ukraine is after they've rendered it essentially a wasteland conventionally or otherwise and as such serving as a buffer zone.
 
I hope they have a contingency plan - because war doesn't care about things "WHICH NEED TO HAPPEN NOW":


Well, there is precedent with oil tankers during the Iran-Iraq war. Perhaps we could see a similar thing here, with bulk carriers full of grain being escorted by coalition warships in the Black Sea, instead of tankers full of oil in the Persian Gulf.
 
with bulk carriers full of grain being escorted by coalition warships in the Black Sea, instead of tankers full of oil in the Persian Gulf.

Small problem with that - due to complications with various treaties and its desire to walk a tight rope with Russia - Turkey has closed the straits access to the Black Sea to all military traffic not just Russian - to allow coalition warships in they'd also have to let Russia reinforce its Black Sea fleet.
 
Small problem with that - due to complications with various treaties and its desire to walk a tight rope with Russia - Turkey has closed the straits access to the Black Sea to all military traffic not just Russian - to allow coalition warships in they'd also have to let Russia reinforce its Black Sea fleet.

Turkey themselves could escort them though.
 
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