Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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What people forget is that Putin wants the failure of Ukraine, to nullify the cashflow from grain and to starve the population into submission or to put more humanitarian aid/food pressure on the west's economies. The man is a ****.

There is a massive amount of foodstuffs that go to China and to Africa. China's livestock is fed by Ukrainian feed, or look elsewhere quickly - Africa can't provide that hence it's South America I suspect or be reliant on Putin.. Goodwill in africa caused by investment by China is not going to go far if their population is starving.
 
I_M_Weasel said:
I'm not sure that it does get better for Russia as time goes on - had they turned off gas on day 1 that would have had an effect but that effect is now being weakened as Europe finds alternative supplies. Time just gives the world the chance to find alternatves.
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Taxes and profit from oil and gas revenue make up like 40-50% of the Russian fiscal budget, if they turn off the tap the economy will experience mother of all shocks. It gives time for both parties to adapt to the new normal. Nothing happening right now is out of goodwill, it is all out of necessity. EU cannot refuse Russian gas and Russia cannot turn off the tap. Both parties want to weaken each other as much as they can. If they could, they would.
 
I_M_Weasel said:
I'm not sure that it does get better for Russia as time goes on - had they turned off gas on day 1 that would have had an effect but that effect is now being weakened as Europe finds alternative supplies. Time just gives the world the chance to find alternatves.
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If Russia banned all exports, day one, they'd just get poor quicker. Evidence from, for example Germany, is that they have willing buyers, and they'd be stupid not to take advantage of that.

As people around the world can't buy food, they will put pressure on to resolve that issue only.

Countries can dip into stockpiles, but that's not a long-term solution.

Russia and Ukraine supply >25% of the world's wheat. That is a big gap to fill.
 
I_M_Weasel said:
I don't know, but I imagine that the grain is moved short distances by road, middle distance by rail freight to the port and then out to sea. Moving the rail freight section to a friendly country sounds plausable, but I have no idea if the infrastructure for grain processing is available at all ports.
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It's not just a few lorry loads. Ukraine exports literally millions of tonnes of agricultural products, every year.

Loading to rail, when railhead are targets, is not straightforward.

With odesa locked tight, it can't get out by sea, anyway.

Food exports is a huge issue, and over time will become more important.
 
potatolord said:
It's not just a few lorry loads. Ukraine exports literally millions of tonnes of agricultural products, every year.

Loading to rail, when railhead are targets, is not straightforward.

With odesa locked tight, it can't get out by sea, anyway.

Food exports is a huge issue, and over time will become more important.
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I don't know what the normal is for them though - as you say, it's not just a few lorry loads, so is it normally rail freighted? - if it is they just need another safe port.
 
NickK said:
However again - a tank isn't an armoured carrier for storming into unknown/unfriendly locations along or single file. (even a internet general can see that)
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Some videos popping up recently where whole convoys of Russian armour are getting hit where I don't know what they could have done differently without air cover (aside from take a different route). Wide open country so the Ukraine soldiers could sit back with Javelins or Stugna, etc. used drones to walk artillery on them and mined the road in front so the ones which tried to charge forward to escape went boom as well.
 
Rroff said:
Some videos popping up recently where whole convoys of Russian armour are getting hit where I don't know what they could have done differently without air cover (aside from take a different route). Wide open country so the Ukraine soldiers could sit back with Javelins or Stugna, etc. used drones to walk artillery on them and mined the road in front so the ones which tried to charge forward to escape went boom as well.
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That’s the problem they have had since the start.
They failed to get air superiority which would protect them. So without air cover they are vulnerable, especially when there are so many drones out there hunting them down.
 
Rroff said:
Some videos popping up recently where whole convoys of Russian armour are getting hit where I don't know what they could have done differently without air cover (aside from take a different route). Wide open country so the Ukraine soldiers could sit back with Javelins or Stugna, etc. used drones to walk artillery on them and mined the road in front so the ones which tried to charge forward to escape went boom as well.
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There's been some good videos on this. American forces would have scouting forces and air cover to detect and strike a hostile artillery battery, Russia just doesn't bother/can't.
 
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Rroff said:
Some videos popping up recently where whole convoys of Russian armour are getting hit where I don't know what they could have done differently without air cover (aside from take a different route).
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I mean... had air cover. That's what they could/should have done. Without it, they shouldn't be attempting this operation, and its lack is why they're getting humiliated.

Fundamentally, it seems they planned for a different war than the one they're fighting and that seems like a massive blunder. Putin has marched his troops up the hill and is too fragile to march them down again.
 
It's not magic, swap russian tanks for western ones in the same scenario and they're still going to get blown up.

Has the west picked a fight in recent history where they were not able to have air dominance?
 
The NATO mission against Belgrade seems pertinent considering Serbia were adept at keeping their anti-air platforms mobile enough, but I think if we were going full-throttle on an invasion where losses were more acceptable then I doubt Serbia could have denied air superiority for very long.

A hypothetical situation with Ukraine would obviously be much harder but it's hard to decouple Russia from that so it simply would never occur in the first place.
 
Rroff said:
Some videos popping up recently where whole convoys of Russian armour are getting hit where I don't know what they could have done differently without air cover (aside from take a different route). Wide open country so the Ukraine soldiers could sit back with Javelins or Stugna, etc. used drones to walk artillery on them and mined the road in front so the ones which tried to charge forward to escape went boom as well.
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Well for a start you don’t just trundle along unsupported!
Where is the overwatch, who is protecting their flanks?
Where is the artillery support? Where are the fire support teams? Russia’s BTGs are famously supposed to have plenty of guns.
 
dowie said:
Well for a start you don’t just trundle along unsupported!
Where is the overwatch, who is protecting their flanks?
Where is the artillery support? Where are the fire support teams? Russia’s BTGs are famously supposed to have plenty of guns.
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Another thing often lacking - I've seen training of Western armies under similar situations where they lay down smoke and manoeuvre, Russians don't seem to do that much - I think I've only seen individual tanks do it in 1-2 videos.
 
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