Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Jokester said:
You know what this is called? An orgy of evidence, so much evidence pointing to a regime act, that in all likelihood it is actually been staged to look like that. Or it could be a double bluff, because what are the Russian's going to say first? That the CIA made it look that way.
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Yes its quite puzzling. I mean

1. it contradicts the initial claims of the car coming from an area on the border with Chechnya
2. its just too obvious as you say
3. it could be used to point to the opposition "doing it themselves as a false flag" (and i wince as i type FF) but it cuts down massively on most of the other "alternative" suggestions presented by putin as well
4. Well they havent exactly been subtle in the ukraine, I mean everyone is essentially acting and talking as if its a fact russia is there, even top officials so deniability has kinda gone out of the window.
5. If the killing was a warning to other dissenters this is the link that makes sure people know it was the government if they had any doubts but leaves enough deniability (not directly from the government, could have been stolen etc)


Very interesting piece in Janes looking at the russian military side of the conflict.

http://www.janes.com/article/49469/update-russia-s-hybrid-war-in-ukraine-is-working
 
Curio said:
This is what the U.S. Army Europe Commander thinks of Russia's intentions:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...o-says-US-commander-in-Europe-Ben-Hodges.html

:eek:
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Worth noting you dont need to militarily destroy NATO. If you prove it to be a worthless agreement or make it politically impossible/neutered its effectively destroyed.

Part of the reason why the Baltics question is so vital. If they were to be invaded if we dont react as per article 5.... that's Nato gone as we know it. Its also why there are questions/discussion of what constitutes an invasion given they new direction Russia has taken things.

You can see this with belerus's recent declaration, which includes "little green men" as a sovereign invasion.
 
Nutella33 said:
Worth noting you dont need to militarily destroy NATO. If you prove it to be a worthless agreement or make it politically impossible/neutered its effectively destroyed.

Part of the reason why the Baltics question is so vital. If they were to be invaded if we dont react as per article 5.... that's Nato gone as we know it. Its also why there are questions/discussion of what constitutes an invasion given they new direction Russia has taken things.

You can see this with belerus's recent declaration, which includes "little green men" as a sovereign invasion.
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What's worse is that Putin is doing a pretty good job of destroying NATO, thanks to Agent Snowden he's driven a wedge between US/UK and France/Germany. Meanwhile Cyprus (who don't do anything without the backing of NATO member Greece) have allowed the Russian Navy to establish a naval base on their island.

I just honestly can't see the appetite for a NATO armed engagement with Russia right now - even if Russia were to do a Crimea in parts of a Baltic nation, I doubt there'd be a response beyond sanctions/words.
 
scorza said:
I just honestly can't see the appetite for a NATO armed engagement with Russia right now - even if Russia were to do a Crimea in parts of a Baltic nation, I doubt there'd be a response beyond sanctions/words.
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Yep there's lots of factors. they are funding several reasonably powerful anti EU political parties as well, where as if you follow the southern pipeline of europe from russia you get their biggest supporters.

Greece itself with the new government is increasingly pro Russian, It was the implied threat when they stated they will find funding elsewhere if germany doesn't cough up. Cyprus is full of russians as well, it was one of the hubs of money laundering in europe recently.


And I agree. I think Poland and the US would act differently though and I hope others would have the courage to do the same. I wouldn't be counting on Germany, Hungary or Italy though, which are either pro russian or generally pacifist.
 
It would appear that this would be the likely outcome if the Baltics were touched. I'm not sure what else could be done?
 
So does anybody think Putin will turn his attention to the Baltics next? Personally, I think this was all just about the Ukraine and more specifically the Crimea.
 
Curio said:
So does anybody think Putin will turn his attention to the Baltics next? Personally, I think this was all just about the Ukraine and more specifically the Crimea.
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Depends what you consider attention. They raided Latvia and captured an Int Officer last year and still haven't given him back and they have dramatically increased media investments in the region to the point where the governments are considering measures to stop further buyouts.

Whilst their moral basis for Crimea and Ukraine essentially exists in the Baltics. history of occupation, considered zone of influence and significant if not actually majority russian populace.
 
Curio said:
So does anybody think Putin will turn his attention to the Baltics next? Personally, I think this was all just about the Ukraine and more specifically the Crimea.
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No, it is all about the warm water fleet headquarters. NATO(America) have pushed too far and reawakened old Russian fears. It should have been so different - the west and Russia were exchanging intelligence on Terrorist groups and NATO and the Russian forces were holding joint exercises. There was a lot of talk of the peace dividend. It seems some folk don't want peace in Europe - at least before there is another reason to spend mega-squillions on armaments.
 
Russian paranoia isn't an excuse for behaving like Adolf Hitler. In case you missed it Western politicians, even American ones are desperate to cut defence spending - that's why the UK has the smallest army for 200 years and won't have an aircraft carrier capability for years yet.
 
@Nutella33: Originally the native inhabitants of a particular region/country were forced to leave their homeland and move wherever told. They were replaced by native Russians which was a crafty plan that as we can see today has paid off well. Crimea is a good example. Some 70 years ago Crimean Tatars were a majority there (they've lived there since the 13th century). In 1944 Stalin forcibly moved them to what is today known as Uzbekistan. After annexation Putin made them to take part in manipulated referendum or whatever that mess was called and further terrorized them by raiding their newspapers, radio etc.

@do_ron_ron: Russia has no right to tell any country which way to go, what pact to join etc. So keep your commie thinking inside your box.
 
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Nutella33 said:
Yep there's lots of factors. they are funding several reasonably powerful anti EU political parties as well, where as if you follow the southern pipeline of europe from russia you get their biggest supporters.

Greece itself with the new government is increasingly pro Russian, It was the implied threat when they stated they will find funding elsewhere if germany doesn't cough up. Cyprus is full of russians as well, it was one of the hubs of money laundering in europe recently.


And I agree. I think Poland and the US would act differently though and I hope others would have the courage to do the same. I wouldn't be counting on Germany, Hungary or Italy though, which are either pro russian or generally pacifist.
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I wouldn't dismiss Germany so easily. Although not hawkish, Merkel has been quite assertive in the negotiaons and statements regarding the conflict. And since Hollade is busy chasing actresses on his scouter, while Cameron distances himself from the EU institutions to please the eurosceptics, Merkel became the go-to person in the context of EU foreign relations decisions.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/02/09/politics/obama-merkel/
 
Its more the voting class. It will be a hard sell on anything other than full declaration of war and German business is more vocal whilst looking for the sanctions to be eased already, at a time when other nations are pushing for more.
Unfortunately instead of being the centre of response they are a maybe, and that's bad considering how much power they have as you say. But yeah you might be right, I'm just personally uncertain.

Part 3
https://news.vice.com/video/russias-ghost-army-in-ukraine-part-3

@malta, yeah I know about russification and the internal juggling of peoples in the soviet era. Maybe I should have said the points are valid if seen from Russian eyes, as they are the ones that consider the Baltic's rightfully within their sphere and the Russian population rooted naturally instead of forced.
 
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Zethor said:
I wouldn't dismiss Germany so easily. Although not hawkish, Merkel has been quite assertive in the negotiaons and statements regarding the conflict. And since Hollade is busy chasing actresses on his scouter, while Cameron distances himself from the EU institutions to please the eurosceptics, Merkel became the go-to person in the context of EU foreign relations decisions.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/02/09/politics/obama-merkel/
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That's part of the problem though now - the EU's foreign policy is Germany's foreign policy because of Merkel. Germany is heavily into Russian gas, to the extent that former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is on the board of Gazprom and a "personal friend" of Putin's.
 
Nutella33 said:
US sending 300 troops for Ukraine training
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I hear they arrived this morning, then left :P

Listen up y'all, mkay, we're here to teach y'all how to use your M16's properly in the desert when y'all are fighting the insurgents who wanna stop you gettin at the oil.

Wait, what'ya mean you use AyKay's? yous sum kinda commies? Well I suppose we can works with this.

What? this ain't no desert? and your fighting trained soldiers? RUSSIA!?!

**** me boys let's get ourselves back on the damn plane pronto before we get Saigon'd again!
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Ha! Well maybe the desert was good for something. Got them used to that ****** mag release and accuracy!

Let's hope they don't spend too much time on the range and more time learning when to duck.

~edit~

Looks like russia will veto any talk of UN peacekeepers tomorrow

and the ex finance minister of ukraine is arrested in spain and Pro-Ukrainian activist Alexei Semenov was brutally beaten with baseball bats last night in Moscow. He's in the hospital.

And rebels attacking Shyrokyne. So the push for mariupol is still on.

And british blogger paid by russia today detained at heathrow
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rnalist-graham-phillips-detained-east-ukraine
 
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