If they have photo/video evidence of a Russian Buk entering Ukraine with four missiles and leaving with three, then while still circumstantial it is highly conjunctive.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Although I think it highly likely that was the launcher involved - it is still circumstantial and doesn't prove who was calling the shots either. There are multiple recordings that show forces in the area were gearing up to interdict Ukraine military aircraft with unclear talk about multiple launchers that might have indicated they were expecting more of them to come from Russia or could be referring to launchers already in separatist control, etc.
I agree - but there were other planes shot down and shot at in attempts to shoot them down over that time period as well - not sure now what the actual timeline was as to whether it narrows down the operation of that Buk in respect to that (a Ukraine cargo aircraft was shot down at 21,000 feet less than 72 hours before).
There's being devils advocate and then there's just not accepting the likely scenario. "Potentially rebel forces" but if we're being truthful "probably not" and "most probably the russian federation".
Careful now, roid rage!
I'm not invested in any particular outcome. If you look at the losses and reports of attempted shooting down of aircraft over that period of 2014 the pro-Russian/Russian forces had been operating a mixture of anti-aircraft capabilities for awhile progressing to higher levels of sophistication and ability to reach higher* and post this incident Buks have been known to be operating in that zone without it being clear who is actually operating them (though most likely Russian forces or with Russia advisors).
* Purely conjecture but earlier failed attempts by unknown systems to shoot down progressively higher flying aircraft might be read as an indication of learning how to use those systems - or they even failed entirely and turned to Russia for the expertise who brought their own.
The problem we have is that what investigators are claiming is not the likely scenario. I would love for them to present proof Russia was behind it all as it would finally bring this mess to a close, but as we stand the most likely scenario is still that it was shot down by separatists using a captured Ukrainian Buk and then Russia helped them smuggle it out of the country. Now if the investigators can prove their case or even supply enough solid evidence to make it seem more plausible then I have no problem switching to that as a working theory, however in the post Iraq world I'm not going to blindly believe a less likely scenario without proof simply because the government tells me to trust them.
Two things
Why would Russia help them smuggle it out of the country?
Also youre accusing the Russian government of aiding mass murder and perverting the course of justice?
Is this somehow more innocent?
There are multiple eye-witness accounts that a Buk was brought into Ukraine from the Russian side shortly before the shooting down with enough information that almost certainly identifies it as the one seen leaving afterwards.
While it makes it quite likely it was the unit involved - if a civilian aircraft was accidentally shot down by such a system and you had such a system in the area you'd want to remove it PDQ from the area as well even if it wasn't the one that shot it down.
I've never claimed Russia was innocent, personally I think they were heavily involved. My argument has simply been one of proof/evidence, until this new announcement the story claimed against Russia by various governments has always been not just based on circumstantial evidence but not even the most likely/plausible explanation. If the investigators can prove their new asertations that will swing things in favour of the "Russia is responsible" narrative IMO.
I agree it would be great if they could just present the proof black and white but perhaps the releasability of that info is restricted.
The government isn't telling you to trust them, an independent group of investigators is, isn't it?
Do you trust the russian government? Does anyone?
Be interesting to see what happens once the world cup is out the way - some sources seem to be claiming Russia is building up equipment in that region but it is unlikely they'd do anything before hand.
EDIT: Though I guess conversely Ukraine might try and use the distraction of the WC to push some offensives so could be in case they need to respond to that.
EDIT: Though I guess conversely Ukraine might try and use the distraction of the WC to push some offensives so could be in case they need to respond to that.
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Bad ruskies
They don't *need* to respond to that at all just as they don't need to be there in the first place (and won't admit to being there anyway). It is, for the moment, officially Ukrainian territory.
Mass murder?
Are British and US Drone operators/pilots considered mass murderers when their missiles kill civilians?
What would the operators actually be charged with? The general view is that a civilian airliner wasn't targeted intentionally, and that it was a terrible accident. In which case why would the operators and their actions not be considered any difference to any other military personal in a combat zone that kills civilians accidentally.
Yet that's not what appears to be happening here.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-for-downing-mh17-dutch-cabinet-idUSKCN1IQ0XO
It looks like they actually want to try the operators of the machine, which if they were actually russian military should set a precedent that western governments should be worried about. Unless of course you follow the usual "we good, they bad" mantra that so many do...
Why?
Still no comment on the topic of discussion, just more pointless bickering. I suspect you're struggling.
I also rest my proverbial case.
So i assume we'll see in July if the Russians push into Ukraine, further sanctions are clearly worthless and the West can't surely be seen to continue it's soft approach, but the situation is lose-lose anyway.
Interestingly it's also the 100th anniversary of the murder of the Russian Royalty and the Russian constitution, it may be significant.
Interestingly it's also the 100th anniversary of the murder of the Russian Royalty and the Russian constitution, it may be significant.
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