Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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martynr said:
By the sound of him I recon he is an ex convict. He refers himself as the person, who lost his ways. Most likely he was taken by PMC "wagner" of yevgeny prigozhyn (a cook of bunker rabbit). They are getting rid of folk that are a waste in their terms.
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I always wondered of Putin is simply sending people to the front to be killed. Reducing the population and being able to blame others for it.
 
I've said before that I think Russia could have negotiated here instead of going full invasion, but you can't get into diplomacy when one party isn't willing to discuss things and stick to agreements.

I reckon Russia could have peacefully annexed Crimea as part of any deal they made, but the time for that has kind of gone now.
 
HungryHippos said:
I've said before that I think Russia could have negotiated here instead of going full invasion, but you can't get into diplomacy when one party isn't willing to discuss things and stick to agreements.

I reckon Russia could have peacefully annexed Crimea as part of any deal they made, but the time for that has kind of gone now.
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I'm not sure what they could have negotiated - they've made several [off-hand] accusations as to why they invaded but made no attempt to exhaust conventional avenues such as the UN for resolving them first and/or made any attempt to explain why they might not be able to resolve them via those avenues.

Putin has clearly several times marked his line in the sand as to negotiations which are basically complete capitulation of Ukraine - all of which simply make it easier for Russia to use force against them to get what they want. There has more than once been attempts by those lower down in the Russia government to come up with a negotiated settlement with Ukraine only to get shot down when they brought it to Putin.

EDIT: As an aside the only time there has been any real negotiation entertained such as the grain deal was due to the impact on Russia - the biggest recipients of Ukrainian grain like Egypt are also significant partners for Russian military sales, etc. and were not happy.

apnews.com said:
Egypt has signed deals to buy billions of dollars’ worth of Russian weapons, including fighter jets and assault helicopters. When Putin visited Cairo in December, officials signed a deal for Russia to build a nuclear power plant in Dabaa.

Putin and el-Sissi discussed the implementation of the nuclear plant contract and talked about setting up a prospective Russian industrial park alongside the Suez Canal. Putin added that Russian companies expect to invest up to $7 billion in building industrial plants in the area.
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I wonder if Egypt is having regrets now :s
 
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HungryHippos said:
I reckon Russia could have peacefully annexed Crimea as part of any deal they made,
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How would that work then? I had a relative, well Godparent's Son, that lived in Crimea with his Ukrainian family and there is no way they'd have 'peacefully' allowed themselves to become Russian citizens.
 
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NickK said:
I always wondered of Putin is simply sending people to the front to be killed. Reducing the population and being able to blame others for it.
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Russia already faced an existential population crisis. Aside from the revisionist nature to the SMO, a big motivation was to boost the Russo population again and close some of the vulnerable borders. Russia is running out of people. The birthrate has been falling and cannot sustain a military that protects such a huge land mass. This, coupled with the brain drain and underinvestment in education since the end of the Cold War means that it is a country bowing to it's knees. Putin knows this and has rolled the dice. It was a huge gamble and now he is trapped, hung by his own petard. The problem is that if he can't conquer Ukraine then he'll make sure it aint worth anyone else having before he's done.

He'll hope to hang it out until the spring when Western resolve might have waivered and the Ukrainians are on their knees and he's mobilised a few more bodies. There is no off ramp, there is no negotiated settlement. All there is his his perverted sense of glory in sending 100s of thousands of Russians to their death just as they have in every major conflict they've fought. The problem this time is the sanctions will bite and send Russia back to the 20th century.
 
Malevolence said:
How would that work then? I had a relative, well Godparent's Son, that lived in Crimea with his Ukrainian family and there is no way they'd have 'peacefully' allowed themselves to become Russian citizens.
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As much as it would have sucked, they were effectively already Russian citizens at the start of the year no?

If not, I've missed something, because Russia unofficially annexed it in 2014.

Even if that's not the case, they could have allowed people to leave back to Ukraine if they wanted to. It's a big whatif anyway because it's far too late to really be negotiating on that basis.
 
HungryHippos said:
If not, I've missed something, because Russia unofficially annexed it in 2014.
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Yes, and that's when he and his family were forcibly removed from their home at gunpoint and kicked out onto the streets with nothing.

Thankfully they got out when the first missiles started to hit their new home.

Malevolence said:
Well, at least there's a some sliver of good news out of Ukraine today. Heard today that my Godparents' Son and his family (he married a Ukrainian woman and moved there around 2008) have made it out of the country and are currently in Slovakia, hopefully on the way to stay with a Cousin of hers in Vienna. He's not having much luck, back in 2014 they had to up sticks from Crimea and moved to Odesa.
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Minusorange said:
So it's really not much different from what the US and other Nato allies are likely doing, we'll definitely have "advisors" on the ground in Kyiv & Lviv and probably elsewhere too
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"Ukraine troops so ineffective that British personnel had to train them... FOR MOTNHS" - LOLArknorNewscorp.



Almost everything about this war is twisted by propaganda to the point it's barely worth following anymore
 
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Malevolence said:
Yes, and that's when he and his family were forcibly removed from their home at gunpoint and kicked out onto the streets with nothing.

Thankfully they got out when the first missiles started to hit their new home.
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Yes I suppose my point was that losing Crimea permanently may have been a small price for lasting peace, and by lasting I mean lasting, not peace for 5 years and then annex Donbas/Kherson next.

Russia didn't really seem interested in negotiating though, so it seems like the invasion was planned and going ahead no matter what, at least as far as I can tell.
 
Unconfirmed reports that the Russian 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade have been told to retreat from Kherson
 
I can't see Ukraine staying on their side of the river for long if Kherson falls. They'd want to, at the very least, ensure the city is outside the range of regular artillery. Don't know if the Russians have extensive defensive lines on the south (if they didn't they'll be making them now) but pushing them back to Crimea would be huge and basically open the way to freeing up the whole south east and probably beyond. I can't see them doing anything other than contain Crimea for now though. Sooner this cluster **** is over the better.
 
Washout said:
I can't see Ukraine staying on their side of the river for long if Kherson falls. They'd want to, at the very least, ensure the city is outside the range of regular artillery. Don't know if the Russians have extensive defensive lines on the south (if they didn't they'll be making them now) but pushing them back to Crimea would be huge and basically open the way to freeing up the whole south east and probably beyond. I can't see them doing anything other than contain Crimea for now though. Sooner this cluster **** is over the better.
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If Russia is really retreating from Kherson I think they will struggle to do that and abduct citizens at the same time, it will be chaos at the river crossing, people will die making the attempt.

If Ukraine secure their side of the river, it may not be easy to bridge across it to the other side, depends what kind of preparations Russia has been making.
 
Washout said:
Don't know if the Russians have extensive defensive lines on the south (if they didn't they'll be making them now)
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Annoyingly there are [understandable] restrictions on high resolution satellite imagery of the area - the latest from the 16/10 in so-so resolution doesn't show much in the way of prepared defences compared to what I'd have expected.
 
They've been preparing mobilisation of non-combat roles as well apparently - in the last couple of days those who could fulfil things like medical and engineering roles are being asked to confirm their details/status.
 
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