Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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delta0 said:
It will come down to how many Russia want to give to take Ukraine. The killing efficiency of the US and NATO forces will be far greater.
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If the worst were to happen, I think you might be a little surprised. The US has been pressuring the rest of NATO nations for some time now to step up as a greater fighting force against Russia without so much reliance on the US whilst they can focus on what they quite rightly deem to be a greater threat to themselves in China. It's of no surprise that the US have greatly increased their cooperation with Australia and could be considered as much/as close an ally as the UK now.

Has NATO stepped up it's game to handle a major Russian confrontation? Possibly. Is it sufficient? Unsure. Would NATOs conflict with Russia be mired down with bureaucracy, political squabbling and shirking of efforts? You bet!
 
RoboCod said:
If the worst were to happen, I think you might be a little surprised. The US has been pressuring the rest of NATO nations for some time now to step up as a greater fighting force against Russia without so much reliance on the US whilst they can focus on what they quite rightly deem to be a greater threat to themselves in China. It's of no surprise that the US have greatly increased their cooperation with Australia and could be considered as much/as close an ally as the UK now.

Has NATO stepped up it's game to handle a major Russian confrontation? Possibly. Is it sufficient? Unsure. Would NATOs conflict with Russia be mired down with bureaucracy, political squabbling and shirking of efforts? You bet!
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A big gamble in Russia’s side. Potential large loss of life, the economic impacts and then the risk of further conflicts. Some are saying that unlike the other Ukraine regions this is less Russia supporting so could become a Vietnam for Russia.
 
RoboCod said:
If the worst were to happen, I think you might be a little surprised. The US has been pressuring the rest of NATO nations for some time now to step up as a greater fighting force against Russia without so much reliance on the US whilst they can focus on what they quite rightly deem to be a greater threat to themselves in China. It's of no surprise that the US have greatly increased their cooperation with Australia and could be considered as much/as close an ally as the UK now.

Has NATO stepped up it's game to handle a major Russian confrontation? Possibly. Is it sufficient? Unsure. Would NATOs conflict with Russia be mired down with bureaucracy, political squabbling and shirking of efforts? You bet!
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Ignoring the US and nuclear options the problem for Russia with any confrontation of NATO/Europe is that they would lose the long game unless they could simultaneously head shot the manufacturing capabilities of like 5 nations in the early stages. And they simply don't have it in the bank to do that in terms of aircraft (and the pilots and munitions) and conventional long range missiles.
 
Invading ALL of the Ukraine or the Eastern separatists bit?
Taking all of it will makes no sense. Just more headaches for the future with significant unrest from a nationalistic dissident population.
Protecting the Eastern half whilst maintaining a reduced Ukraine as an independent country would cause less grief for them.
 
RoboCod said:
It's the standard paranoid US approach.

Some of the rhetoric I heard at a big exercise last year was that the situation with China is now at a "phase 1.5" out of 6, that's well beyond OPORD activation and into seizing initiative. That was alarming to hear, it's as if some staff believe they are already at war with them.

The thing is, they'll always be paranoid and one day they'll be proven correct.
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Yeah because constant Chinese cyber attacks and espionage, coupled with threats to invade Taiwan and threating every one in the region with military action if they don't back down to the Chinese demands..

One wonders why the US and literally everyone in the region is paranoid about China.
 
Custor said:
Protecting the Eastern half whilst maintaining a reduced Ukraine as an independent country would cause less grief for them.
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This is what I've expected from the start. Biden making it sound like a small incursion wouldn't be such a big deal is publicly giving Putin a way out and saving face.
 
EddScott said:
This is what I've expected from the start. Biden making it sound like a small incursion wouldn't be such a big deal is publicly giving Putin a way out and saving face.
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I get securing the whole of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and I think thats gonna be pretty much a given at this stage, it "feels" like just a matter of when.
However, Russia aint just stacked up round these areas, there are increasing movements of forces on the northern border in Belarus, this dosnt really signal "small" incursion.
 
steve45 said:
I get securing the whole of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and I think thats gonna be pretty much a given at this stage, it "feels" like just a matter of when.
However, Russia aint just stacked up round these areas, there are increasing movements of forces on the northern border in Belarus, this dosnt really signal "small" incursion.
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A full scale incursion into Ukraine will not be met with just sanctions. If that is met with a non-military response, Taiwan will be under China's control by the end of the year. Germany would be under pressure to break ties around Nord Stream 1 let alone never opening 2. If they did they'd look like aiding Russia.

Allowing an "official" incursion into the east of Ukraine, together with allowing NS2 to be opened would probably be the best scenario for both sides. Europe would have to negotiate with Ukraine some form of compensation.

If anything, officially handing over those occupied parts of Ukraine to Russia would actually improve Ukraine's position to join Nato as a condition of a country joining is that it is not currently engaged in conflict or have any of it's territory occupied.
 
I wonder how much uncertainty there is within Russia re: what they're going to do next - Putin obviously has a huge range of options now from full-on invasion of the entire country downwards.

Literally, anything could be on the table, like build up on the Eastern border but take Ukraine by surprise by invading with 10,000 troops from Belarus. Ukraine really ought to be mobilising forces north of Kiyv too. just in case.

Perhaps he's still waiting to decide, he's got several options and is assessing the payoff, likely repercussions etc.. severe sanctions and a prolonged insurgency campaign in Ukraine could lead to instability in Russia itself. Perhaps he builds up all these forces then opts to just fully annex the occupied territories as part of Russia and/or push forwards a bit further in those regions.

ubersonic said:
No Russia didn't invade and take Crimea, their troops were already there (as part of an agreement with Ukraine) when the 2014 coup in Ukraine took place and the Crimean government took the opportunity to secede from Ukraine and hold a public vote on re-joining Russia (which passed, and Russia accepted).
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Oh come on, that's just ridiculous - their navy bases were already there, the little green men were not - they did invade, quite clearly... we all knew which country the little green men had come from and they quickly took over the area.

No Russia didn't invade and take the Donbass region, if they had done they would either have held or still hold the Donbass region, it wouldn't be mostly held by Ukrainian loyalists with Russian backed/armed/supplied rebels holding small territory in the far east.
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Yes, they've supported the annexation of a part of that region both with their own forces both members of specialist units deployed directly and of course more conventional Russian "volunteers" who officially resigned or took holiday from the army and were sent there and via Russian affiliated locals. They weren't able to take all the territory they wanted to there as they didn't officially deploy conventional forces and kept up the denials, the Ukrainians were able to fight back in some areas.

Sure they didn't take all of the Donbass region, they did invade and take a part of it and caused a huge problem for Ukraine in the various areas around the parts they took.
 
Russia taking advantage of the fact that Europe is plagued by weak Politicians, who would've thought. We'll come full circle again soon.

EddScott said:
A full scale incursion into Ukraine will not be met with just sanctions. If that is met with a non-military response, Taiwan will be under China's control by the end of the year. Germany would be under pressure to break ties around Nord Stream 1 let alone never opening 2. If they did they'd look like aiding Russia.
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It will be met with a non-military response because we have no defence pact with Ukraine, they aren't part of NATO and we're under no obligation to defend them, nor is there a desire for a conflict with Russia. However the US have said they will defend Taiwan so I don't think it's the case that China will see that as a green light for them to invade.
 
Is this Biden over-reacting to divert attention from domestic matters?

They are not going to get involved militarily. There is no great desire for European nations to get involved.

All NATO has to do is stop expanding eastward and putting weapons on Russia's borders and feeding their ages old paranoia of being encircled by enemies.

Remember how America reacted when the old USSR put small nukes on Cuba.
 
do_ron_ron said:
Is this Biden over-reacting to divert attention from domestic matters?

They are not going to get involved militarily. There is no great desire for European nations to get involved.

All NATO has to do is stop expanding eastward and putting weapons on Russia's borders and feeding their ages old paranoia of being encircled by enemies.

Remember how America reacted when the old USSR put small nukes on Cuba.
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Is it NATO expanding eastwards, or is it newly independent nations seeking to join NATO so they have protection against being invaded again?
 
Hades said:
Is it NATO expanding eastwards, or is it newly independent nations seeking to join NATO so they have protection against being invaded again?
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True, its just two completely opposing views of the same situation and both sides only view their particular view to be the correct one and the "other" view to be completely insane and/or evil.
 
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