I'd agree with the in no ones interests part but not the inconceivable part - some of the biggest wars of our history were before hand considered inconceivable - its a lesson sadly that people are very quick to forget. Often due to 2 parties being backed into a position they "can't" stand down from despite the costs.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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I'd agree with the in no ones interests part but not the inconceivable part - some of the biggest wars of our history were before hand considered inconceivable - its a lesson sadly that people are very quick to forget. Often due to 2 parties being backed into a position they "can't" stand down from despite the costs.
Soldato
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Ukraine mobilising its military just seems like a bit of political manoeuvring rather than them seriously contemplating armed conflict with Russia.
Do something before it kicks off, look it's about to kick off....
Do something before it kicks off, look it's about to kick off....
Simpletom you seem stuck on the same note of deflecting legitimate discussion points with poor and often insulting attempts at humour. Could you try to fix the broken record or atleast leave this discussion to adults who can accept people having differing points of view without resorting to sarcastic insults?
It seems like you're arguing whether Russian involvement is justified, I am not arguing about that, I am pointing out that some of the protesters were in fact nationalistic and that government to some degree is being influenced by nationalistic parties.
The Defence Minister Ihor Tenyukh is a member of Svoboda
Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Sych is a member of Svoboda
Unless it suits a weird agenda.
Soldato
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Indeed, the best thing Kiev can do is sit tight and not respond to provocation and try and claim the moral high ground and support, even if only moral support, from abroad. Launching an assualt on russian troops would be playing right into Putin's hands its the perfect excuse he needs to "defend" russian speaking peoples, and interests. And Kiev will lose, lose troops, dignity and territory, big time. They must know that surely.
However I doubt the government in Kiev is that cool headed enough. I hope so, but I doubt it.
I can't imagine Ukraine's armed forces are in much of a state to mobilize against a small neighbour (though that might atleast bring a certain degree of unity) let alone russia. Which in some ways is slightly worry as that could potentially (though not an overly likely outcome) either drag other countries in to support ukraine or alternatively despite ukraine giving up their nuclear weapons and equipment they have a ready supply of uranium and relatively easy ability to reassemble nuclear capabilities compared to many countries.
Maybe I am not too enthused with the idea of 'we' need to do something. 'We' includes 'me' and I don't want to do something. It is between Ukraine and Russia. If those who are eager for something to be done actually do something, then it may legitimise their viewpoint.
If people are hurt with sarcastic remarks, then they really should be cautious about what they wish on other countries and the poeple who live in them. Interference from the west may have dire consequences which will hurt a little more than sarcasm.
Man of Honour
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I don't know. I have a bad feeling about this. World Wars have started over much less and Ukraine's independence is guaranteed by the western powers. It's like another Poland 1939. Russia wants to annex Ukraine, so what would happen should they invade? Will the western powers idly sit by and watch.
Personally, I hope it is resolved diplomatically. I really hope! But a big part of me is genuinely worried.
European powers will do nothing because we need Russian Gas...
Europe EU is better off without another junk country joining it yet.
Russia/Putin wont let go. Maybe try again when he is gone.
Crimea will get trounced for a while whilst we sit here saying how bad it is.
Europe EU is better off without another junk country joining it yet.
Russia/Putin wont let go. Maybe try again when he is gone.
Crimea will get trounced for a while whilst we sit here saying how bad it is.
Equally non-interference can lead to dire consequences which will also hurt. Let's hope Russia sees sense soon but the pessimist in me would tend to suggest they won't.
one thing i've seen no one talk about why russia might want to keep ukraine, and why even a local conflict could have dire effects for us
WHEAT
ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, and just with what has happened this last week, i've saw a £10 per tonne raise in price (up till then it had been falling slowly but steady ). if a war break out wheat might well go pass the £200 per tonne, that makes it very dear for 3rd world countries to buy, when it happened a few years ago a number of countries had to borrow big time to buy food. For us it might me a £2+ per loaf of bread.
Now given the odd weather we been having in euro, usa,canada and australia all major wheat growing areas it not unfair to assume one or more of them might have a lower yield harvest. Add to that a every increasing demand for wheat from richer countries (china and india) we could see very real shortages of a major food group. and to me that means trouble for a lot of governments
WHEAT
ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, and just with what has happened this last week, i've saw a £10 per tonne raise in price (up till then it had been falling slowly but steady ). if a war break out wheat might well go pass the £200 per tonne, that makes it very dear for 3rd world countries to buy, when it happened a few years ago a number of countries had to borrow big time to buy food. For us it might me a £2+ per loaf of bread.
Now given the odd weather we been having in euro, usa,canada and australia all major wheat growing areas it not unfair to assume one or more of them might have a lower yield harvest. Add to that a every increasing demand for wheat from richer countries (china and india) we could see very real shortages of a major food group. and to me that means trouble for a lot of governments
To expland on this:
Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Ihor Shvaika is a member of Svoboda
Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources of Ukraine Andriy Mokhnyk is a member of Svoboda
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yatsenyuk_Government
I hold similar opinion, if it does get worse, Kiev and western provinces are not going to be invaded, if ruskies will go for lang grab it will be with support from local public.
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I can't see this becoming full civil war, I just can't.
1. There will be an armed uprising of the far right in Ukraine (pretty much what we can see now.) They'll gather together lots of hyped up young nutters and some remnants of the military hell bent on violence.
2. They'll eventually dare to fire rounds at the Ruskies who will then crush them like ants without any restraint.
3. The UN/west will call Russia, possibly place some kind of useless sanction against them and media will go into a full-fledged anti-Russian orgasm.
4. The Ukraine meanwhile will simply fracture and fall apart.
5. Then for the next couple of months hidden forces from both Russia and the west will try and form a government that suites them behind the scenes.
6. In the end Russia will come out on top and get what it wants and everything will calm down with time.
The end
1. There will be an armed uprising of the far right in Ukraine (pretty much what we can see now.) They'll gather together lots of hyped up young nutters and some remnants of the military hell bent on violence.
2. They'll eventually dare to fire rounds at the Ruskies who will then crush them like ants without any restraint.
3. The UN/west will call Russia, possibly place some kind of useless sanction against them and media will go into a full-fledged anti-Russian orgasm.
4. The Ukraine meanwhile will simply fracture and fall apart.
5. Then for the next couple of months hidden forces from both Russia and the west will try and form a government that suites them behind the scenes.
6. In the end Russia will come out on top and get what it wants and everything will calm down with time.
The end
Soldato
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What's it got to do with Russia?
They should just drive in. It's their country.
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So if Crimea asks Russia for help because they believe they are under imminent threat from the Ukraine (which the Ukraine have all but confirmed by attempting to denounce Crimea's sovereignty and rights to self determination) then Russia shouldn't be allowed to help them.
But if the Ukraine asks for help because Russia is stopping it from attempting to conquer Crimea then the Ukraine should get help?
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