Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Tony habergham said:
I think the proposed peaceful settlement, were Russia withdraws from everywhere they occupied except Crimea, which is demilitarized, is possibly the best outcome that can be hoped for.
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No it isn’t, but nice try. The best outcome is Russia gets the **** out of Ukraine.

The best outcome for Russia is that Ukraine gives in now because Russia will look like less of a laughing stock, won’t lose tens of thousands of more men and has a slight chance of holding some of Ukraine’s territory. Russia has ****** Ukraine, so now Ukraine has the upper hand they aren’t going to roll over.
 
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Where do these apologists come from? I mean, nice essay and I appreciate the “lets be realistic” but that’s only “realistic” if Russia remained a threat, which it patently isn’t. I can see them being annoying to Ukraine but that’s about their capability. Russia should keep their ambitions on the sports field (where they systematically cheat iirc) where they have a chance.
 
"No? Are you Russian? The best is Russia leaves Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea and immediately starts paying reparations. This is the stated goal of Ukraine."

No. I'm a 59yo bloke writing from from Yorkshire. Very much a 'Chairbourne general'. My own military experience is limited to being a wargamer and re-enactor, and included camping and chatting with various miltary vererans, including Vietnam, Korea, Suez, Falklands, NI... others. Even 'camping' for a long weekend alongside a squad of Russian conscripts, still in active service, with their officers (and attached prostitutes). I have the badge [From Odessa military radio college] from that one - they were swapping anything for cigarettes and Vodka.

The best may be possible, but I doubt it. Objectives change during the war - Our own, at the start of WWII, was to protect and liberate Poland, and re-establish democracy. How did that work out? Arguably it did - but not until 1993. Certainly not when WWII was declared over.

Somebody earlier in the thread was comparing the scenes in liberated Kherson to the liberation of Belgium during 1944. I admit, from accounts I've read, that that is the only part of WWII that I'd actually LIKE to have experienced. But I'm aware what followed that - Market garden, Hürtgen Forest, Siegfried line... crossing the Rhine (which basically took 4-5 months). 200,000+ allied casualties, just in the West. This with THREE major powers fighting a single lesser one. Unlike now where there is a single nation fighting a nation of four times it's size.

I'm also aware of the 1941 invasion of Russia... how the Russians bonded together to throw out the invader of the home nation despite Stalin being feared and despised. According to accounts, on the BBC and other sources, that the Russians really do consider Crimea to be 'part of Russia', unlike the Donbas, and if invaded we might well see a proper full mobilization by them, that is supported by the population.

As for Reparations - Russian assets, including gold reserves, taken as part of sanctions would be a good start. Wont happen though.

So... how about you - are YOU Russian? Or got any reasoned arguments against what I put earlier?
 
All I can say to that (because you no doubt understand the details of wars better then I) is “the Russians are wrong”. Wrong to think the own Crimea, wrong tactics and strategy, wrong approach, wrong weapons, wrong guys in charge, wrong fight to pick etc etc
 
CapitalOne said:
Looking at the welcome the army and the press are getting in Kherson those 98% who voted in the referendum to join Russia must be sitting at home :D
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It was interesting at place like Lysychans'k which had a fair amount of Russian leaning population (most of those not pro-Russia left as Russia advanced) - after a few weeks of Russian occupation they suddenly had a change of heart. The civilians who'd been moaning at the imposition of the Ukrainian forces suddenly wanted them back.

I suspect similar is happening at Kherson.
 
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Rroff said:
It was interesting at place like Lysychans'k which had a fair amount of Russian leaning population (most of those not pro-Russia left as Russia advanced) - after a few weeks of Russian occupation they suddenly had a change of heart.The civilians who'd been moaning at the imposition of the Ukrainian forces suddenly wanted them back.

I suspect similar is happening at Kherson.
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supposedly russian leaning surely?
 
Tony habergham said:
"No? Are you Russian? The best is Russia leaves Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea and immediately starts paying reparations. This is the stated goal of Ukraine."

No. I'm a 59yo bloke writing from from Yorkshire. Very much a 'Chairbourne general'. My own military experience is limited to being a wargamer and re-enactor, and included camping and chatting with various miltary vererans, including Vietnam, Korea, Suez, Falklands, NI... others. Even 'camping' for a long weekend alongside a squad of Russian conscripts, still in active service, with their officers (and attached prostitutes). I have the badge [From Odessa military radio college] from that one - they were swapping anything for cigarettes and Vodka.

The best may be possible, but I doubt it. Objectives change during the war - Our own, at the start of WWII, was to protect and liberate Poland, and re-establish democracy. How did that work out? Arguably it did - but not until 1993. Certainly not when WWII was declared over.

Somebody earlier in the thread was comparing the scenes in liberated Kherson to the liberation of Belgium during 1944. I admit, from accounts I've read, that that is the only part of WWII that I'd actually LIKE to have experienced. But I'm aware what followed that - Market garden, Hürtgen Forest, Siegfried line... crossing the Rhine (which basically took 4-5 months). 200,000+ allied casualties, just in the West. This with THREE major powers fighting a single lesser one. Unlike now where there is a single nation fighting a nation of four times it's size.

I'm also aware of the 1941 invasion of Russia... how the Russians bonded together to throw out the invader of the home nation despite Stalin being feared and despised. According to accounts, on the BBC and other sources, that the Russians really do consider Crimea to be 'part of Russia', unlike the Donbas, and if invaded we might well see a proper full mobilization by them, that is supported by the population.

As for Reparations - Russian assets, including gold reserves, taken as part of sanctions would be a good start. Wont happen though.

So... how about you - are YOU Russian? Or got any reasoned arguments against what I put earlier?
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I see your house as part of mine. BRB, invading.
 
Tony habergham said:
I'm also aware of the 1941 invasion of Russia... how the Russians bonded together to throw out the invader of the home nation despite Stalin being feared and despised. According to accounts, on the BBC and other sources, that the Russians really do consider Crimea to be 'part of Russia', unlike the Donbas, and if invaded we might well see a proper full mobilization by them, that is supported by the population.
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We were supposed to see a full Russian mobilisation by now. Putin vowed to unleash 300,000 soldiers on Ukraine. Instead, his forces are fleeing as fast as they can, leaving equipment and weapons behind. If he wants to retain Crimea, he'll need to step up and find those 300,000 troops because right now his army is getting absolutely wrecked.

Also remember that Crimea is Ukrainian territory. They are fully familiar with it, and fighting in winter will not deter them. The Russian invaders are not fighting for their own territory, they're fighting to maintain an occupation of foreign soil. I doubt they will have anywhere near the resolve of the Ukrainians.
 
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Some people are living in cuckoo land if they think Ukraine are going to somehow get to Moscow and pull out the perpetrators and have them face trial for war crimes and pay reparations. At some point the way this war ends is with an agreement between Russia and Ukraine. If Ukraine can take Crimea and Donbas AND hold it without foreign support (because that support won't last forever) AND whether they determine that is worth the large human cost...it's a big if.
 
Sankari said:
We were supposed to see a full Russian mobilisation by now. Putin vowed to unleash 300,000 soldiers on Ukraine. Instead, his forces are fleeing as fast as they can, leaving equipment and weapons behind. If he wants to retain Crimea, he'll need to step up and find those 300,000 troops because right now his army is getting absolutely wrecked.

Also remember that Crimea is Ukrainian territory. They are fully familiar with it, and fighting in winter will not deter them.
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I'd be cautious on this one - time is not on Russia's side and throwing poorly, even untrained, personnel into battle just makes them fodder against an organised force with reasonably modern weapons and tactics. But given time Russia can still bring the man power up to some kind of standard and bring more equipment back into service. Despite all the laughing at T-62s, etc. Russia still has a lot of tanks it is possible for them to put back into service with time and likewise other equipment and nothing like as short of ammo as is banded around - for instance as with the Kharkiv offensive they are turning up Russian caches all over Kherson they've not got the logistics to take with them such as https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPHI3_wMrEg

There is a real possibility the intention right now is to pull back to defendable lines in the hope they can hold them long enough to bring more forces up to speed - this war is likely far from over.
 
Shamikebab said:
Some people are living in cuckoo land if they think Ukraine are going to somehow get to Moscow and pull out the perpetrators and have them face trial for war crimes and pay reparations. At some point the way this war ends is with an agreement between Russia and Ukraine. If Ukraine can take Crimea and Donbas AND hold it without foreign support (because that support won't last forever) AND whether they determine that is worth the large human cost...it's a big if.
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The intention is to join NATO. The Russians have forced them to, there is no other way to have stability in the region now.
 
Dis86 said:
I see your house as part of mine. BRB, invading.
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I personally have no qualms about repelling the invasion of anywhere occupied since 2014, by force. We should have given assistance since day 1, including the pre-announcement of air cover to Ukrainian forces after 72 hours unless the offensive stopped - irrespective of the prospect of war with Russia, just as 'we' should have done in Syria. But the west only engages in war with the prospect of victory, usually easy victory, with the prospect of benefits to the West (such as Iraq, which I was against). And... I'd even support if the UK declared itself an active belligerant in the conflict, as payback for Salisbury and Litvinenko... as long as we could hide behind NATO.

But you cant seriously think that 'might is right' is the only factor, and victory at all costs in a realistic objective? Doesn't usually work out well.

To be honest, I consider the prospect of Ukraine taking back the Crimea by force to be totally unrealistic, irrespective of any, disputable, right in the matter. But if support lasts long enough... I stand to be proved wrong. but it only takes one Kursk battle for the situation to look very less rosy for Ukraine.

Cant actually see Putin actually accepting just retaining a demilitarized Crimea anyway.
 
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