Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Ninco!]

This is not 10-20 years ago when everything was silly cheap.

I think I paid £30 for one rib eye premium steak and that wasn't the most expensive.

Chanpagne is expensive, in supermarket/stores you might be paying £60-£100 for what you can buy in tesco for £30-40.

On the other hand a small bottle of zubrowka vodka like maybe 150ml or abit more was about £2 or so.


So basically imported stuff is expensive local ischeaper and they don't have sugar tax or unit alcohol tax as far as I can tell.

30-40 minute taxi for foreigners about £20 (Airport transfer for example)

Same as a friend, Russia isn't as cheap as many perceive. Moscow Underground Stations are a sight to behold.

I would love to one day, visit Volvograd (Stalingrad) to see the main memorial, the Mamayev Kurgan complex.

Have to say, I agree with @Enkore

 

[thenewoc]

I think the EU response would be more interesting as to whether they sit back or use all that money they've saved on their NATO subs to roll some hardware in to support Ukraine.

 

[englishpremier]

my guess:

Doubt it, Russian in Lithuania is only 4% unlike the 30% in Latvia and and 20% Estonia. Also Russia didn't want Kaliningrad, but no-one else wanted either. It would be taken quickly in any war. Russia wouldn't really have much of a chance of an offensive into Europe proper, even without the US.

 

[Rroff]

Ukrainian intelligence seems to broadly have the same kind of understanding of the situation as my opinion - simplified:

-Russian supply lines, fuel and medical facilities not anything close to invasion level.
-Despite large amounts of equipment in place or being moved - personnel levels forward staged or mobilised well below what would be necessary with only minimal changes over the last 6-9 months in overall numbers despite larger numbers moving back and forth.
-Expects to see Russia engage in disruptive activities within Ukraine potentially with the hope of being able to incapacitate leadership and take advantage of the situation.

Germany and French intelligence seem to be seeing an even more optimistic version of that picture - personally think it more serious than they are portraying.

US meanwhile seems to see a very pessimistic version of that picture insisting Russia troop numbers are increasing significantly - they have been running significant ISR activity with a lot of drones, etc. so may have a better intelligence picture but events like that drone attack in Afghanistan don't necessarily inspire confidence in their interpretation. They've also put 8500 troops on heightened readiness.

 

[XeNoN89]

Same as a friend, Russia isn't as cheap as many perceive. Moscow Underground Stations are a sight to behold.

I would love to one day, visit Volvograd (Stalingrad) to see the main memorial, the Mamayev Kurgan complex.

Have to say, I agree with @Enkore

Belarus is still really cheap for most stuff

 

[Rroff]

Also Russia didn't want Kaliningrad

LOL just randomly looking at Kaliningrad on Google maps:

https://goo.gl/maps/dxXUNDDeRRy8mcLL7

 

[NickK]

Well I guess if Russia invades Ukraine we should just launch all of our nukes against them and hope they don't return fire. I mean what else are we going to do realistically? Declare war on Russia and then what?

If you're not happy with cutting all ties with Russia in terms of sanctions as strong enough - next step is nuclear war. So lets just launch our strike first asap so at least maybe they won't have time to return fire.

All of you who are bleating that sanctions are not enough, what are you looking for I'm just curious. Declare war on Russia? Well then lets do it, just don't be surprised if you see mushroom clouds forming outside your window.

I mean the brain on some of these people. Clearly the wise decision would be to sanction them and hope for a collapse of their system like in 91. Who on earth declares war on largest Nuclear stockpile nation with an active nuclear triad over Ukraine?? Are you people insane or what.

Sanctions may work - in the end the European nation needs to reduce it's dependancy on Russian gas. Same as Chinese imports..

I suspect as Russia invades, so China will on the same day.

 

[Malevolence]

I suspect as Russia invades, so China will on the same day.

Invade where, Taiwan? Not a chance. There's a hell of as big difference between Russia steamrolling across the Ukrainian steppe and China carrying out an opposed amphibious landing. And besides, such a massive build up of assets by China would've been noticed by now.

 

[XeNoN89]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485721627115626501

America sending the good stuff now

 

[NickK]

Invade where, Taiwan? Not a chance. There's a hell of as big difference between Russia steamrolling across the Ukrainian steppe and China carrying out an opposed amphibious landing. And besides, such a massive build up of assets by China would've been noticed by now.

True, however I don't think Russia will invade if they don't soon - the additional time simply gives more time to strengthen the immediate response. Russia's invasion would be a last desperate act by Putin to kick start his USSR.

China I need to look at again. They don't need to invade but cut off trade. However annexing sea area todo this is likely to get a international response.

 

[dowie]

Bill Browder has the right idea and it might be the only thing that would stop Putin.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485349239781789698

I think the repercussions could go a lot further than that if they go for a significant invasion, cutting them off from SWIFT network, massive sanctions etc.. but yeah Putin's cronies could for sure be targeted further.

The other aspect of course is that there isn't all that much popular support for invading Ukraine in Russia itself, Putin could end up facing an insurgency if he wants to try and hold any territory or they're bold enough to enter any Ukranian cities. Those UK-supplied MLAWs and US-supplied stingers etc.. won't be fun for the Russians to deal with, now any random group of Ukrainian infantry or potential future insurgents could be tank/BMP killers. Those UK flights we saw, in the event of a full-on invasion inc cities, could end up costing Putin a few hundred tanks/APCs.

The whole thing could become a drawn out poison pill for him if Russian forces seek to occupy too much and cause unrest back home, or perhaps he revaluates his plans now and previous possibilities of a much more ambitious invasion/occupation get scaled back... I'm not sure Russian tank crews/armoured infantry are going to be as happy now knowing there aren't just Ukrainian tanks out there but infantry that can pop up with legit, modern tank killer weapons which they have no protection from.

 

[dowie]

US taking it very seriously now acting as if it is imminent and inevitable with a wider scope than just Ukraine. Kind of worrying in a way even though I don't really see the grounds for the reaction - though I believe in being prepared.

Anyone in Ukraine as a visitor also need to be aware if things do kick off they likely ain't getting out - the air will be closed to civilian traffic, the borders will be closed - Poland especially will be fully militarised, there will be little any country can do short of fully going to war to get their citizens out.

I don't think that last bit would be true tbh... there would likely be a big influx of refugees across the Polish, Romanian and Moldovian borders and various countries would certainly seek to get their citizens out, international aid agencies/NGOs etc.. would likely be operating to do similar too.

 

[ubersonic]

Not really much we can do with sanctions.

You do know it was sanctions that we used to cripple the USSR's economy over time and eventually implode the whole thing leading to it's dissolution right? They do work, very well when used aggressively.

On the flip side it was also sanctions that the USA used to hamstring Japan in WW2 leaving them with the option of either standing down their expansion ambitions or attacking the USA, so yeah they can backfire too xD

 

[arknor]

hasn't russia had sanctions since forever , weren't there economic sanctions around the 2000s? and again more after crimea
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/IF10779.pdf

 

[Rroff]

I don't think that last bit would be true tbh... there would likely be a big influx of refugees across the Polish, Romanian and Moldovian borders and various countries would certainly seek to get their citizens out, international aid agencies/NGOs etc.. would likely be operating to do similar too.

If things kick off with a full on Russian military invasion most of the bordering countries are going to militarily reinforce their borders as a precaution and crossings are likely to be closed (obviously there is going to be a degree of porousness) any one allowed through will be their own citizens primarily and it would likely be chaos. Moldovia may be a potential route out but also is within the Russian sphere of influence.

 

[dowie]

If things kick off with a full on Russian military invasion most of the bordering countries are going to militarily reinforce their borders as a precaution and crossings are likely to be closed (obviously there is going to be a degree of porousness) any one allowed through will be their own citizens primarily and it would likely be chaos. Moldovia may be a potential route out but also is within the Russian sphere of influence.

Sorry but same comment again... I don't think that would be the case at all, as if Poland is going to turn away US, UK or non-Polish EU citizens etc.. or refuse to work with NGOs and only allow Polish citizens to cross.

I mean which countries do you think they're going to be reliant on in order to deter Russia from any incursions into or overflights of their territory. They're not going to make any crossings for civilians Polish evacuees only and turn around say Germans, Americans, British etc.. Especially not when it's going to be USAF, RAF and other NATO nations patrolling their skies with surveillance aircraft, helping to keep them safe etc..

 

[413x]

You do know it was sanctions that we used to cripple the USSR's economy over time and eventually implode the whole thing leading to it's dissolution right? They do work, very well when used aggressively.

On the flip side it was also sanctions that the USA used to hamstring Japan in WW2 leaving them with the option of either standing down their expansion ambitions or attacking the USA, so yeah they can backfire too xD

I would have thought Russia could cause us just as much if not more pain than the reverse?

 

[Rroff]

Sorry but same comment again... I don't think that would be the case at all, as if Poland is going to turn away US, UK or non-Polish EU citizens etc.. or refuse to work with NGOs and only allow Polish citizens to cross.

The problem is once things kick off the borders will be chaos and the easiest way to manage that initially is just to close them - with many of the countries bordering Ukraine looking to reinforce them to deter any conflict spillover. You might get through eventually.

 

[dowie]

The problem is once things kick off the borders will be chaos and the easiest way to manage that initially is just to close them - with many of the countries bordering Ukraine looking to reinforce them to deter any conflict spillover. You might get through eventually.

I don't see any logic behind only letting Polish citizens through and not allowing say Americans though, just not going to happen.

It might well be difficult to get through in places but realistically countries and NGOs will work to get their citizens out and they're not just going to stop that from happening.

 

[Rroff]

I don't see any logic behind only letting Polish citizens through and not allowing say Americans though, just not going to happen.

It might well be difficult to get through in places but realistically countries and NGOs will work to get their citizens out and they're not just going to stop that from happening.

On a related note - a popular notion with the Polish seems to be they should fence off the E40 highway end to end and let all the refugees head down it to Germany :s