Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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HungryHippos said:
It will end at some point unless you think it's going to keep on going on forever?

No war really has yet, at least not with active fighting going on.
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Yes, I didn't say otherwise? I think it's going to ultimately end up in some kind of political negotiation and compromise. At least I hope so.
I was curious how bingham67 thought it was going to end and it's about what I suspected.
 
EvilRob said:
How is it going to end?
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I can't see any good ways this war ends really - short of the Russian people rising up against Putin which is unlikely or Putin being disposed of in some way and someone with a different mindset taking over - but that is pretty unlikely as well - and even if he was disposed by some internal power play or died of natural causes those most likely to take over appear to be of a similar mindset so no guarantee of any change.

Russia could go "all in" with what they currently have, very unlikely though due to how paranoid Putin is and the actual state of their armed forces compared to on paper likely means it would be far from guaranteed to result in some kind of victory for Russia. (Contrary to the perception people often have with this situation Russia still has around 335,000 regular land forces and all the equipment/supplies for them which is tasked for various other duties than Ukraine, as well as other branches of the military).

Ukraine needs a vast amount of mobile artillery, tanks and mobile air-defences along with the trained personnel to use them to have a chance of any kind of decisive outcome.

Most likely we'll see an ever increasing industrial and military mobilisation in Russia, turning the country into something with parallels to North Korea, until they either win through attrition or utterly exhaust the ability to fight.

Or someone screws up and we end up escalating to a major war.
 
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Lord-Jaffa said:
I thought they run out of missiles months ago? At least that's what I read in this very thread, fairly impressive making hypersonic missiles from salvaged washing machine parts.
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Don't think they've used any of their stock of hypersonics until today, it's mostly the other missiles they've been running out of since about April last year but obviously the Western intel on Russian stockpiles of missiles isn't all that great if they're still doing almost weekly missile strikes on non critical targets just for fun
 
Lord-Jaffa said:
I thought they run out of missiles months ago? At least that's what I read in this very thread, fairly impressive making hypersonic missiles from salvaged washing machine parts.
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Did you actually read the details posted on news sites about the missile that was used? If you had you would realise your post is just pure idiotic nonsense. And so was the one you quoted.
 
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Lord-Jaffa said:
fairly impressive making hypersonic missiles from salvaged washing machine parts.
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Actually many Russian missiles use things like MEMS sensors which are the same as used in washing machines and the likes. Albeit there is a problem with just scraping something together as even small changes from the original design, even tiny tiny weight shifts by using compatible but not identical components, can impact on the missiles performance, reliability and accuracy.
 
@Rroff Agree with no good outcomes. We can't really "destroy Russia" as another posted said because the risk is too great, doesn't seem one of the likely outcomes.

I support providing more powerful arms to Ukraine but it will lead to escalation and I feel for the Ukranian people who are probably going to suffer even more because of that. I think that grind and escalation is going to continue until eventually Putin gets tired of it and figures out a way to come to a compromise and spin it without losing too much face in Russia. Or as said unless some kind of coup or other event in Russia takes place, but doesn't seem likely at the moment.
 
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Minusorange said:
Don't think they've used any of their stock of hypersonics until today, it's mostly the other missiles they've been running out of since about April last year but obviously the Western intel on Russian stockpiles of missiles isn't all that great if they're still doing almost weekly missile strikes on non critical targets just for fun
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Strikes seem to be in numbers every two weeks or so at present.

They've bolstered strike capability with Iranian drones, and are clearly able to still produce some new cruise missiles in smaller numbers.

I am not sure if using hypersonic missiles is a sign they're running out of their other missiles or just them trying to show off that they have them and they work.
 
EvilRob said:
@Rroff Agree with no good outcomes. We can't really "destroy Russia" as another posted said because the risk is too great, doesn't seem one of the likely outcomes.

I support providing more powerful arms to Ukraine but it will lead to escalation and I feel for the Ukranian people who are probably going to suffer even more because of that. I think that grind and escalation is going to continue until eventually Putin gets tired of it and figures out a way to come to a compromise and spin it without losing too much face in Russia. Or as said unless some kind of coup or other event in Russia takes place, but doesn't seem likely.
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Unfortunately not sure Putin will have a change of heart, his more recent actions/words seem intent on seeing it through to the bitter end - maybe brinkmanship in the hope that others will lose conviction before he does but that isn't the feeling I'm getting. Even from fairly early on he was scuppering any chance of peaceful negotiated outcomes which others in the Russian government attempted such as the talks in Turkey.
 
EvilRob said:
@Rroff Agree with no good outcomes. We can't really "destroy Russia" as another posted said because the risk is too great, doesn't seem one of the likely outcomes.

I support providing more powerful arms to Ukraine but it will lead to escalation and I feel for the Ukranian people who are probably going to suffer even more because of that. I think that grind and escalation is going to continue until eventually Putin gets tired of it and figures out a way to come to a compromise and spin it without losing too much face in Russia. Or as said unless some kind of coup or other event in Russia takes place, but doesn't seem likely at the moment.
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They will probably suffer more if we don't send them better tanks and equipment.

The name of the game it seems is to make this war as difficult and costly for Russia as possible, so even if they wind up gaining "something", the cost is so great that it's a pyrrhic victory.

If Russia take territory the sanctions are unlikely to go away.
 
HungryHippos said:
and are clearly able to still produce some new cruise missiles in smaller numbers.
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Can't remember numbers off the top of my head but it was like 9-14 a month or something - I'd have to look at what I posted before to check.

EDIT: Around 10 Kalibrs, up to 60 a month of all types of long range ballistic missiles.
 
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Rroff said:
Unfortunately not sure Putin will have a change of heart, his more recent actions/words seem intent on seeing it through to the bitter end - maybe brinkmanship in the hope that others will lose conviction before he does but that isn't the feeling I'm getting. Even from fairly early on he was scuppering any chance of peaceful negotiated outcomes which others in the Russian government attempted such as the talks in Turkey.
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You may well be right, but what Putin says is just a tool he uses - what he thinks and does can be very different and the spin can change at any moment.
 
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