Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[esmozz]

You're deluding yourself if you think public support for this war (and the associated spending) won't wane significantly once Ukraine starts pushing into Crimea for example.
Your wishlist of things is never going to happen despite how much you (or indeed I) think it should.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64693691 :

Ukraine war: Russia must be defeated but not crushed, Macron says.​

So is Macron a ChinaBot or RussiaBot?

 

[Rroff]

That's nonsense, only this last week someone in here was saying we, the UK, should give Ukraine access to Trident, which sure as hell would start a proper war. There are more irrational and immature belicose people in here and in the left wing media than even I would have imagined possible. There are lots of (mainly young) people with no experience of war thrutching to start one with Russia. Their glee at death and destruction is obscene, their conception of war with Russia utterly naïve.

I know for a fact many acquaintances wouldn't have been able to point The Ukraine out on a map or offer any useful insight about the country two years ago, that are now so swept up in the media frenzy that you'd think President Putin was trying to take England.

As one looking on horrified as the UK and Europe has demographic changes and capitulation beyond even my worst nightmares the thought of strong, nationalistic and imperialistic leaders who openly state they do not want their country to become like many European ones, demographically, politically or morally, is refreshing. I think I am becoming more aligned with Bernie Ecclestone monthly...

I'm talking about the pre-war perspective of Western nations as a collective - people's attitudes individually since war has kicked off may be a bit different.

Before this all started Russia was never at actual risk from Western nations or even NATO.

 

[Mr Jack]

This war is going to end like every other war - with a negotiated settlement.

I wonder where this idea comes from, because it's obviously false. Many, many wars end with the military defeat of one party or the other, and many wars never really have a formal end. Ukraine defeating Russia and reclaiming every last square inch of the country wouldn't be some historic first.

That settlement will probably involve Russia retaining (in some sense) some of the territory it acquired in 2014 including the Crimea.

That said, I think a settlement involving a surrender of land to the Russian invaders is a fairly likely outcome but...

In return for that the Ukrainains will be given access to a full suite of modern weapons, massive reconstrucion aid and possibly membership of NATO and the EU.

Ukraine can't be given this "in return". Russia has no ability to grant or even offer this as part of a deal so how could it be part of your theorised negotiated settlement? Not to mention that it did clearly violates Russia's geopolitical position on Western "expansion".

That's part of the problem. All good outcomes for Ukraine are bad for Russia, and Putin has put too much on the line to accept that.

 

[StriderX]

The entire conflict hedged on Ukraine's desire to permanently leave Russia's economic influence-at-gunpoint by joining the EU, they do not care about NATO whatsoever as it is not a threat to them in reality where as the EU ensures Russia's collapse. If Ukraine is kept out of the EU then effectively Russia has won the war.

 

[esmozz]

I wonder where this idea comes from, because it's obviously false. Many, many wars end with the military defeat of one party or the other, and many wars never really have a formal end. Ukraine defeating Russia and reclaiming every last square inch of the country wouldn't be some historic first.



That said, I think a settlement involving a surrender of land to the Russian invaders is a fairly likely outcome but...



Ukraine can't be given this "in return". Russia has no ability to grant or even offer this as part of a deal so how could it be part of your theorised negotiated settlement? Not to mention that it did clearly violates Russia's geopolitical position on Western "expansion".

That's part of the problem. All good outcomes for Ukraine are bad for Russia, and Putin has put too much on the line to accept that.

Every war ends (when it ends) with the protagonists sitting down round a table. Altought I grant you that this sometimes results in the almost complete capitulation of one side. But even the Japanese when surrendering to the Americans in WW2 were able to make demands as part of the agreement in relation to their Emperor, for example. And without putting boots on the ground in Moscow - you will never have the complete capitulation of Russia, and you will never have boots on the ground ini Moscow.

I think, respectfully, that you missed the point of my second paragraph. Russia cannot offer those things, they will be offered to Ukraine by the West in order for Ukraine to agree to whatever is negotiated.

Also, bad for Putin and bad for Russia are two completely different things. Putin is an old man, quite possibly very ill and in a very dangerous position. Personally, I think by playing the long game, the problems posed by Putin will be solved. Who comes after him may well be a different story.

 

[esmozz]

The entire conflict hedged on Ukraine's desire to permanently leave Russia's economic influence-at-gunpoint by joining the EU, they do not care about NATO whatsoever as it is not a threat to them in reality where as the EU ensures Russia's collapse. If Ukraine is kept out of the EU then effectively Russia has won the war.

I'm not so sure. For decades the EU has happily traded with Russia, to the benefit of all concerned. There was even talk of Russia joining Nato back in the early 2000's. Personally I think this has more to do with Putin (and close associates) utterly deluded belief in Russia's (read Soviet Unions) place in the world. A strong trading relationship between the EU and Russia strenghens both parties. A possiblity which is probably now gone for at least a generation.

 

[Freddie1980]

You're deluding yourself if you think public support for this war (and the associated spending) won't wane significantly once Ukraine starts pushing into Crimea for example.
Your wishlist of things is never going to happen despite how much you (or indeed I) think it should.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64693691 :

Ukraine war: Russia must be defeated but not crushed, Macron says.​

So is Macron a ChinaBot or RussiaBot?

To me it looks like he's considering the whole geopolitical future of the region around Russia and what may happen if Russia's army is defeated to a point where it's neighbours no longer view Russia as a credible threat. The unfortunate reality is peace across central Asia comes about through having Russia playing the role of local policeman and without a semi capable Russia or a Russia that splits apart into separate republics the world could see decades of smaller regional conflicts sprouting up all over the place due to historical ethnic tensions similar to what happened in the Balkans once Josip Tito died.

The ideal situation would be Russia gets beaten and Ukraine is restored to it's pre 2014 boarders and Putin gets sent to Hague along with his cronies for war crimes or falls out of an window. After which somebody level headed takes over the country and is able to maintain the peace in the region but not strong enough to threaten anyone with invasion. The thing is I'm not even sure if losing in Ukraine would even be enough for Putin to lose is grip on power, the way he's brainwashed people over there's enough people who think he can do no wrong and if things turn bad to Russia it's the fault of all the people underneath him.

 

[CaneyJ]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64693691 :

Ukraine war: Russia must be defeated but not crushed, Macron says.​

So is Macron a ChinaBot or RussiaBot?

No he's being a typical Frenchman as in a professional surrender-monkey

 

[bris]

What options does that open up?

Storm shadow cruise missiles?

More harpoons?

Russia is poorly prepared and by all reports suffered huge loss. They will take years to rearm and resuppply. First the propaganda tells us they are failing. Now it tells us they could grow stronger!

Russia thought they were just going to go into Ukraine and all Ukraine was just going to fold and accept their new masters.

Well Putin got it wrong in every department and it's true they weren't prepared for a war., They have actually shown how inept they actually are, their super power status was a myth

if Ukraine concede any bit of land just now Putin would gladly accept it, but only to get out of his nightmare and claim victory.

Would he be done though, no no way in the world would he accept this situation as the world would call it a defeat.

This would however give him time to get stronger, in a few years they would look at what went wrong and get stronger, he would be back to finish the job, that's just who he is.

But yes the world now sees Russia for what they are, Russia as a country they will suffer for a long time.

They aren't just failing they have already failed. When this is done don't be surprised if they are pushed out of Transnistria too, then you really will have something to cry about,.

This could be the downfall of Russia, the fallout in Russia will be huge.

 

[dowie]

This war is going to end like every other war - with a negotiated settlement.

Nah, sometimes they end with a dictator blowing his brains out in a bunker.

 

[Grim5]

Kaja Kallas: For peace to exist, Russians must face up to their modern and past war crimes through a tribunal

She has a point; maybe if Russia had been put through The Hague like Germany they'd have ended up a reformed country too, instead their aggression was rewarded and their crimes forever unpunished.

Not that this will ever happen anyway it's all wishful thinking; it would require a complete collapse of Russian government

 

[bris]

This war ends, when, I have seen a few suggestions above which are unlikely.

My view of it is that this war only ends when Putin is overthrown because he has taken this to far.

Of course Putin has powerful allies in the kremlin, but will they all just sit back and watch their country be destroyed? Because it is being destroyed.

The sanctions are biting hard now, their deficit is getting bigger every month, money starts wars, it can also finish them.

 

[Chris Wilson]

This war is going to end like every other war - with a negotiated settlement. That settlement will probably involve Russia retaining (in some sense) some of the territory it acquired in 2014 including the Crimea. In return for that the Ukrainains will be given access to a full suite of modern weapons, massive reconstrucion aid and possibly membership of NATO and the EU.

The above seems obvious, at least to me. But I'm curious. Does thinking that make me a ChinaBot or RussianBot? Because that how simple this tread has become, if you think beyond 'GRRRR CRUSH ORCS' you must be one or the other.

No, not to me, I treat those so entrenched in a totally black or white opinion on the war with suspicion, with them there is no nuance, no shades of grey. Rather like with what paper you read or quote, and with the infamous "Brexit" debates.

 

[Colonel_Klinck]

They are almost certainly nothing like as "fringe" as you may think. For instance, I would not be allowed to post the above on say AV Forums, the owner pre censored any debate showing any understanding or support of Russia. That's unhealthy and fearful.

I am seeing none mainstream opinion being more and more censored across a wide spectra of subjects and media here in the UK. I think muted support for strong nationalistic leaders is more widespread than you care to admit....

Well that has never gone wrong and resulted in the death of millions before has it

I honestly despair at some of comments not just on here but on the internet in general. Its like the lessons of history are to be ignored at all costs.

 

[Colonel_Klinck]

You're deluding yourself if you think public support for this war (and the associated spending) won't wane significantly once Ukraine starts pushing into Crimea for example.
Your wishlist of things is never going to happen despite how much you (or indeed I) think it should.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64693691 :

Ukraine war: Russia must be defeated but not crushed, Macron says.​

So is Macron a ChinaBot or RussiaBot?

You chose to interpret that the way you please. That to me says Russia must be driven out of all of Ukraine and if it can no longer wage war all the better. What the West and NATO won't support is Ukraine taking the war over the borders into Russia after it has driven Russia out.

They also want to give Russia a way out, saying Russia must be defeated and crushed would give Russia no reason to stop. That statement means more than 1 thing, you have chosen your interpretation, I think you've got it wrong.

 

[esmozz]

To me it looks like he's considering the whole geopolitical future of the region around Russia and what may happen if Russia's army is defeated to a point where it's neighbours no longer view Russia as a credible threat. The unfortunate reality is peace across central Asia comes about through having Russia playing the role of local policeman and without a semi capable Russia or a Russia that splits apart into separate republics the world could see decades of smaller regional conflicts sprouting up all over the place due to historical ethnic tensions similar to what happened in the Balkans once Josip Tito died.

The ideal situation would be Russia gets beaten and Ukraine is restored to it's pre 2014 boarders and Putin gets sent to Hague along with his cronies for war crimes or falls out of an window. After which somebody level headed takes over the country and is able to maintain the peace in the region but not strong enough to threaten anyone with invasion. The thing is I'm not even sure if losing in Ukraine would even be enough for Putin to lose is grip on power, the way he's brainwashed people over there's enough people who think he can do no wrong and if things turn bad to Russia it's the fault of all the people underneath him.

Its a very good point about the hidden tensions internally in Russia across different ethnic groups, I think you're absolutely right. And I would love to see Putin in the dock at the Hague. But it strikes me that in reality we are about to have much bigger problems.

In one sense you could view the war in Ukraine as just another regional conflict of which there have been many, and there will be many more.

In other sense, I see it as a fairly seismic shift in how power is balanced around the world. I don't doubt the China were aware and at least tacitly supported it quietly, despite some of their lukewarm public announcments. And other burgeoning powers are going to start to push back increasingly hard against western hegemony.

The point of my original post that of course I support Ukraine, but we have to be realistic. And we need to send weapons to Ukraine but can't do so without limit. We also need to build up our own, woefully underprepared, forces for what comes next. To a certain degree, I believe we are being sold a lie in relation to just how superior western militaries are, especially when quantity has a quality all of its own. We are already running down our war stocks beyond what we can easily replenish. And at some point we are going to have to choose between one or the other. A negotiated settlement allows time to do that.

There is a school of thought that says Chamberlain signed the peace deal with Hitler in order to give the Allies time to start to prepare for what was coming next. I'd like to believe that was true and that there may be a lesson there.

I'm not suggesting WW3 is just around the corner, altought I think we're closer to it than we have been for a while. I do think that if we want to protect freedoms, protections and lifestyles we enjoy we need to see a bigger picture beyond Ukraine. If nothing else, a new cold war is coming.

 

[esmozz]

You chose to interpret that the way you please. That to me says Russia must be driven out of all of Ukraine and if it can no longer wage war all the better. What the West and NATO won't support is Ukraine taking the war over the borders into Russia after it has driven Russia out.

They also want to give Russia a way out, saying Russia must be defeated and crushed would give Russia no reason to stop. That statement means more than 1 thing, you have chosen your interpretation, I think you've got it wrong.

We can agree to differ - I think Freddie1980's point about internal tensions inside Russia a very good one.

I'm curious though. How, once Ukraine is fully equipped with whole range of Western weapons systems and with one of the most battle tested armies in the world, while Russia could no longer wage war, would NATO stop them from walking across the border into Russia if they wanted to do so?

 

[CaptainRAVE]

We can agree to differ - I think Freddie1980's point about internal tensions inside Russia a very good one.

I'm curious though. How, once Ukraine is fully equipped with whole range of Western weapons systems and with one of the most battle tested armies in the world, while Russia could no longer wage war, would NATO stop them from walking across the border into Russia if they wanted to do so?

They’ve shown no desire to do so. Who would stop any country doing the same with western weapons.

 

[Chris Wilson]

Well that has never gone wrong and resulted in the death of millions before has it

I honestly despair at some of comments not just on here but on the internet in general. Its like the lessons of history are to be ignored at all costs.

As long as man remains ethnically, religiously, territoriality and financially divided history can go boil its head. We gonna fight! As none of these traits and ideologies are going anywhere soon, well, you get the real picture...

 

[potatolord]

You chose to interpret that the way you please. That to me says Russia must be driven out of all of Ukraine and if it can no longer wage war all the better. What the West and NATO won't support is Ukraine taking the war over the borders into Russia after it has driven Russia out.

They also want to give Russia a way out, saying Russia must be defeated and crushed would give Russia no reason to stop. That statement means more than 1 thing, you have chosen your interpretation, I think you've got it wrong.

Agreed.

I actually respect Macron: he will take a huge hit for his approach, but Russia needs to have some way out, even if it is theoretical at this point

And I still want Ukraine to take back all their territory before someone calls me a russbot!