Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Scougar]

I never said active military personnel, but why are they calling in reserves if they have another 1million active military personnel sat around in Russia? Those numbers aren't real, just like they never had 12,000 tanks.

Do you even realize how big Russia is? They have a population of 146 million people. Do you really think their army numbers are only around 250k troops? (based on the numbers you provided). I mean really... This is Russia who value manpower numbers over Western idea of doing more with less.

We might have estimated high, but 75% of their troops (Or whatever you want to try and skirt around the topic with to defend your statement) is laughable.

 

[Roar87]

Do you even realize how big Russia is? They have a population of 146 million people. Do you really think their army numbers are only around 250k troops? (based on the numbers you provided). I mean really... This is Russia who value manpower numbers over Western idea of doing more with less.

We might have estimated high, but 75% of their troops (Or whatever you want to try and skirt around the topic with to defend your statement) is laughable.

So the UK Army is around 80,000 and we have a population of 65 million with a very similar defence budget. Even the US Army is less than 500,000 and their defence budget could build a large city on the Moon.

 

[Minusorange]

No, they've around 200k in Ukraine, but who believes they have 1 million men sat around trained in uniforms ready to fight a war?

They started with 200k and have been adding to it ever since, not including the 300k mobiks they've conscripted, I wouldn't be surprised if 80% of their entire military aren't in some sort of role related to Ukraine invasion which will include Navy and Air force servicemen

 

[bris]

Like I said, that's probably because he was waiting for Trump to further weaken NATO in his second term, but the useless lump of lard didn't win.



Yes, it says he felt he needed to strike now, before Biden repaired the damage Trump had done. He may have thought Biden was weak and wouldn't get involved.

Seems Putin was wrong on all counts.

Trump started the NATO withdrawal in his first term, he would almost certainly have finished it in his second.

When he lost Putin had no choice but to try and complete his goal.

 

[StriderX]

It depends what you understand about ready. There was no indication during Trump's time he was going to invade.

He did not move any troops until Biden was in power, the signal to invade came in spring 2021, A few months in to Biden term. I think that says a lot.

Probably - and I know this is difficult to accept - because they'd already invaded 8 years prior and continued to increase troop numbers whenever it looked like Ukraine regained the initiative.

Anyone with even a slightest notion of history would have figured it out that a country that made zero effort to actually develop it's learned class (because it was a threat) would eventually end up in all out war with it's neighbours.

 

[Roar87]

Trump started the NATO withdrawal in his first term, he would almost certainly have finished it in his second.

When he lost Putin had no choice but to try and complete his goal.

Trump told NATO they need to spend more and meet their commitment to 2% of GDP, and Germany needs to stop buying Russian oil because they were funding the military we are now fighting in a proxy war, he was correct.

 

[bris]

I suspect this isn't true. They now have (or had) mobilized troops and Wagner doing the fighting. They wouldn't leave 20% in defence of Russia IMO.

EDIT: Looking around at various websites on military strength etc: Russia estimated around 1 million active personnel. 8000 to to 10000 readied tanks. Stock of 12000. So unless there are 800K+ of the active personnel in Ukraine, then 80% is too large an estimate.

We all know now how inept Russia are. Their numbers are greatly exaggerated.

If they had hundreds of thousands of men waiting about they would all have been in Ukraine a long time ago.

Does anyone really think they are dragging drunks and prisoners into this war if they didn't need to?

 

[Rroff]

I suspect this isn't true. They now have (or had) mobilized troops and Wagner doing the fighting. They wouldn't leave 20% in defence of Russia IMO.

EDIT: Looking around at various websites on military strength etc: Russia estimated around 1 million active personnel. 8000 to to 10000 readied tanks. Stock of 12000. So unless there are 800K+ of the active personnel in Ukraine, then 80% is too large an estimate.

Russia has used up about 40-50% of their elite forces in this war, depleted their officer core especially is very lacking in junior officers, pulled around 30-40% of the hardware from many of their big reserve storage parks i.e. artillery system storage - analysts reckon only about half of what is left could be made useable.

They still have much of the pre-war mid-level stuff, complete with equipment and supplies - the bread and butter infantry, etc. left not committed to this war - much of this war has been fought with their elite forces, airborne/airmobile, special forces, etc. (contrary to the impression some get not deployed at army group size, etc.) and essential conscripts, mercenaries and other private military forces, national guard and even light security forces. Many of the artillery systems, helicopters, etc. used in the initial months of the war were pulled from storage between 2017 and December 2021 rather than taken from their active hardware, though they've also dipped into their active hardware. More recently they've been pulling stuff like T-90s out of storage.

The amount they've committed so far equates to somewhere in the 90% region of the manpower and capabilities of their on paper pre-war standing military forces but unlike the impression some get they've not physically committed those pre-war standing forces at that extent.

 

[nsmalley]

They started with 200k and have been adding to it ever since, not including the 300k mobiks they've conscripted, I wouldn't be surprised if 80% of their entire military aren't in some sort of role related to Ukraine invasion which will include Navy and Air force servicemen

Also, Not every soldier is on the front line charging into machine guns. A large proportion of this will be logistics, payroll, acquisitions, intelligence and admin. etc

 

[Rroff]

We all know now how inept Russia are. Their numbers are greatly exaggerated.

If they had hundreds of thousands of men waiting about they would all have been in Ukraine a long time ago.

Does anyone really think they are dragging drunks and prisoners into this war if they didn't need to?

You are ignoring Putin's paranoia as to the West's intentions for one thing. The bulk of their pre-war mid-level infantry forces have barely been touched for this war - instead trying to do it with a mixture of their more experienced/elite forces and man power that is more "expendable" not so much out of desperation, though there is an element of that.

 

[StriderX]

Russia has used up about 40-50% of their elite forces in this war, depleted their officer core especially is very lacking in junior officers, pulled around 30-40% of the hardware from many of their big reserve storage parks i.e. artillery system storage - analysts reckon only about half of what is left could be made useable.

They still have much of the pre-war mid-level stuff, complete with equipment and supplies - the bread and butter infantry, etc. left not committed to this war - much of this war has been fought with their elite forces, airborne/airmobile, special forces, etc. (contrary to the impression some get not deployed at army group size, etc.) and essential conscripts, mercenaries and other private military forces, national guard and even light security forces. Many of the artillery systems, helicopters, etc. used in the initial months of the war were pulled from storage between 2017 and December 2021 rather than taken from their active hardware, though they've also dipped into their active hardware. More recently they've been pulling stuff like T-90s out of storage.

The amount they've committed so far equates to somewhere in the 90% region of the manpower and capabilities of their on paper pre-war standing military forces but unlike the impression some get they've not physically committed those pre-war standing forces at that extent.

Wonder what the chances are that China is supplying the -stans whilst dribbling some garbage across to Russia at the same time?

 

[Stretch]

Trump told NATO they need to spend more and meet their commitment to 2% of GDP, and Germany needs to stop buying Russian oil because they were funding the military we are now fighting in a proxy war, he was correct.

A stopped clock is right twice a day

 

[Rroff]

Wonder what the chances are that China is supplying the -stans whilst dribbling some garbage across to Russia at the same time?

There is rising discontent in those regions (and also mutterings starting in Siberia) I think the bigger problem is though Russia still has nukes. If it came to light their strategic capabilities were in about as good state as this situation has brought to light with much of their hardware it would likely be a bloodbath.

 

[Mr Jack]

Trump told NATO they need to spend more and meet their commitment to 2% of GDP

It's not 2024 yet. Also, whilst it may have been better if many European NATO members had spent more on defence, Trump's typically blundering and ignorant handling of the situation did far more damage than any increase in spending would have achieved.

 

[Freakbro]

Trump told NATO they need to spend more and meet their commitment to 2% of GDP, and Germany needs to stop buying Russian oil because they were funding the military we are now fighting in a proxy war, he was correct.

Yes, but he was just reiterating US foreign policy advice they had been saying for years. There's footage of Biden saying the same thing when he was V.P.

It's not like Trump came up with that startling revelation all by himself

 

[Colonel_Klinck]

It depends what you understand about ready. There was no indication during Trump's time he was going to invade.

He did not move any troops until Biden was in power, the signal to invade came in spring 2021, A few months in to Biden term. I think that says a lot.

Well other than Russian forces in Ukraine continuing to fight as they had been since 2014 that he kept supplied. What did Trump do to get Putin out of Ukraine?

It says nothing of the sort, you are just wanting it to say that. And Putin was wrong wasn't he, he thought the West would roll over and let him take Ukraine, he like you have misread the situation, the US has a POTUS that has some balls and gives a **** about America supporting democracy, unlike the previous guy who just has a massive ego that was drawn to the dictators of this world.

 

[Freakbro]

We all know now how inept Russia are. Their numbers are greatly exaggerated.

If they had hundreds of thousands of men waiting about they would all have been in Ukraine a long time ago.

Does anyone really think they are dragging drunks and prisoners into this war if they didn't need to?

I have wondered if they are intentionally using up the dregs as an ammo soak They are inflicting large Ukranian losses as well, its not all one sided. Grind them down with the conscripts before using the rest of the better forces again. (Since the initial push with the elite forces failed miserably)

Is that a possibility?

 

[CaneyJ]

EDIT: Looking around at various websites on military strength ..... 8000 to to 10000 readied tanks. Stock of 12000. So unless there are 800K+ of the active personnel in Ukraine, then 80% is too large an estimate.

Sick of that 12,000 tank figure.

A guy counted every tank from orbital maps and their likely ability to be put back into use.

How Many Tanks Does Russia Really Have? And Where Are They?

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They have been stored outside for the best part of 30 years. Most are rusted hulks and at BEST they have half of that.

Russia have currently lost 3334 Tanks alone (+ over 6500 BMP, BMD & BTR, don't confuse them for tanks) as of today so they have lost over half their available total tanks and likely most of the good stuff with modern optics.

That leaves the old T-62, T-64 and unmodified T-80 rubbish to refurb as the T-72 (+T90) fleet has been decimated.

At best with russias buggered manufacturing capability they might be able to refurb around 15-30 tanks of the remaining stock PER MONTH back into "mobile" condition.

They are losing between 8-15 PER DAY. They are DONE as an armored fighting force for the next two decades.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Trump did the right thing, but for the wrong reasons basically.
I am kind of glad he did.

But so far Putin has done more for NATO than any leader since its creation basically.

 

[Rroff]

I have wondered if they are intentionally using up the dregs as an ammo soak They are inflicting large Ukranian losses as well, its not all one sided. Grind them down with the conscripts before using the rest of the better forces again. (Since the initial push with the elite forces failed miserably)

Is that a possibility?

Putin likes to project a certain image, despite the oppressive grip the Russian government has, it is much easier to do when the losses are more from people who won't be missed. Albeit they've also had a lot of casualties from special forces, etc. and something which a lot of people seem to have missed 2 out of band rounds of pre-war mobilisation, the first around 4000 men, the second in the 10s of thousands.

One factor as well is where these soldiers are coming from - those mobilised and deployed from the Russian far east, etc. are less likely to cause problems for Putin compared to those from more affluent western districts where they've touched the forces with a lighter hand.