Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Forbes wrote an article saying Russia is running out of t72's

They lineked to this Twitter thread where this guy uses historical paperwork and estimates to figure out how many tanks Russia had at the start of the war. When combined with Oryx numbers it looks like 50% of Russia T72s in stock have been destroyed or lost and most of the remaining 50% is in storage and requires upgrades to be fielded


 
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Grim5 said:
Forbes wrote an article saying Russia is running out of t72's

They lineked to this Twitter thread where this guy uses historical paperwork and estimates to figure out how many tanks Russia had at the start of the war. When combined with Oryx numbers it looks like 50% of Russia T72s in stock have been destroyed or lost and most of the remaining 50% is in storage and requires upgrades to be fielded


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Regardless of the actual numbers - by Russia's own numbers, and I suspect accurate in this case, they'll be putting ~800 tanks, of all types, back into service over the next 2-3 years and that likely is all they have left which are viable to pull out of storage. A significant percentage are T-62s which will be "modernised" including upgrading with 30+ year old thermal sights. A few hundred will be T-72As and Bs, probably about 100 T-90s.

That assumes they don't mobilise industry to increase output.

EDIT: I wonder if/when they'll start larger scale industry mobilisation though - their big artillery systems (MSTA, etc.) are produced at about 1 a month (apparently used up about 70% of the viable ammo for them now), they've 2 new IFVs going into production but one is ~5 a month, the other probably not even 1 a month, advanced missile production is only enough for limited strikes every 2 months and so on.
 
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Rroff said:
Regardless of the actual numbers - by Russia's own numbers, and I suspect accurate in this case, they'll be putting ~800 tanks, of all types, back into service over the next 2-3 years and that likely is all they have left which are viable to pull out of storage. A significant percentage are T-62s which will be "modernised" including upgrading with 30+ year old thermal sights. A few hundred will be T-72As and Bs, probably about 100 T-90s.

That assumes they don't mobilise industry to increase output.

EDIT: I wonder if/when they'll start larger scale industry mobilisation though - their big artillery systems (MSTA, etc.) are produced at about 1 a month (apparently used up about 70% of the viable ammo for them now), they've 2 new IFVs going into production but one is ~5 a month, the other probably not even 1 a month, advanced missile production is only enough for limited strikes every 2 months and so on.
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Can they increase it much/quickly though?
If at least just some of what has been published/shown about the Russian "essential, must be made in country" production is true they've been fudging it for years with even quite basic stuff that's needed fairly far back in the supply chain as it was profitable for the factory owners and local officials who were meant to oversee it to buy in the items from outside Russia and pretend they'd made them rather than getting their own production up to the required standards.
If they had not been making the parts to standard at pre "special operation" levels when they had access to the rest of the worlds equipment/help to do so, they're going to find it very hard to both improve production to meet those standards and the new required output. Especially if a lot of the people with the education/ability to do that sort of work have been sent to fight in Ukraine or upgrade 50 year old tanks with 30 year old parts.
 
Werewolf said:
Can they increase it much/quickly though?
If at least just some of what has been published/shown about the Russian "essential, must be made in country" production is true they've been fudging it for years with even quite basic stuff that's needed fairly far back in the supply chain as it was profitable for the factory owners and local officials who were meant to oversee it to buy in the items from outside Russia and pretend they'd made them rather than getting their own production up to the required standards.
If they had not been making the parts to standard at pre "special operation" levels when they had access to the rest of the worlds equipment/help to do so, they're going to find it very hard to both improve production to meet those standards and the new required output. Especially if a lot of the people with the education/ability to do that sort of work have been sent to fight in Ukraine or upgrade 50 year old tanks with 30 year old parts.
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In some cases more than others, but from what I've seen there has been very little attempt so far. Rostec has been increasing missile production but very little in the way of a full industry mobilisation.
 
Orangeade said:
Are there any reliable figures of actual losses, I'm only seeing fairly tale figures like 200 Ukrainians killed versus 10000 russian or something like that. I would expect a higher ratio by virtue of defending but is it really that skewed? I would have thought indiscriminate artillery use would pump up both sides?
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For Bakhmut specifically? I don't think there are any particularly reliable estimates, and there may well never be. Still, Wikipedia has a decent collection of estimates. The most reliable estimates seem to be about 20-30k Russian casualties (killed + injured) with NATO estimates putting Ukrainian loses about five times lower so 4-6k.

A 5:1 ratio in favour of the defenders doesn't seem wildly out of line with other conflicts, although higher than you'd expect. The evidence from the front seems to point to Russia (i.e. Wagner) being willing to throw bodies into the fight with unusual aggression.
 
Grim5 said:
ICC is about to start issuing arrest warrants for Russians accused of war crimes

www.reuters.com

ICC expected to launch war crimes cases against Russians over Ukraine

The International Criminal Court is expected to seek the arrest of Russian officials for forcibly deporting children from Ukraine and targeting civilian infrastructure, a source said on Monday, in what would be the first international war crimes cases arising from Moscow's invasion.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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It does not matter they withdrew from that, just means that they cant travel to countries that have signed up, and many countries will not arrest high ranking officials if they are from a powerful country.
Which country would arrest Putin. This is for those people that are not in power.
 
*Kremlin: Peaceful Resolution in Ukraine Is Not Possible Without Taking Into Account ‘New Realities’; Says Moscow’s Demands Are Well Known
*Russian Authorities Consider “Patriotic” Bonds: Interfax
*Russian Parliament Approves Law Expanding Punishments for ‘Discrediting’ Those Fighting in Ukraine
*Russia’s Shoigu Orders to Double Production of High-Precision Rockets - TASS Cites Defence Ministry
 
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Turn said:
*Kremlin: Peaceful Resolution in Ukraine Is Not Possible Without Taking Into Account ‘New Realities’; Says Moscow’s Demands Are Well Known
*Russian Authorities Consider “Patriotic” Bonds: Interfax
*Russian Parliament Approves Law Expanding Punishments for ‘Discrediting’ Those Fighting in Ukraine
*Russia’s Shoigu Orders to Double Production of High-Precision Rockets - TASS Cites Defence Ministry
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I get the impression things are getting a bit panicky in Russia.
 
Mr Jack said:
For Bakhmut specifically? I don't think there are any particularly reliable estimates, and there may well never be. Still, Wikipedia has a decent collection of estimates. The most reliable estimates seem to be about 20-30k Russian casualties (killed + injured) with NATO estimates putting Ukrainian loses about five times lower so 4-6k.

A 5:1 ratio in favour of the defenders doesn't seem wildly out of line with other conflicts, although higher than you'd expect. The evidence from the front seems to point to Russia (i.e. Wagner) being willing to throw bodies into the fight with unusual aggression.
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5:1 sounds rather pessimistic for the defenders given they have drones/ELINT watching every approach and artillery pre-registered on every square metre of those approaches.
 
Turn said:
*Kremlin: Peaceful Resolution in Ukraine Is Not Possible Without Taking Into Account ‘New Realities’; Says Moscow’s Demands Are Well Known
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So there it is. Russia confirms yet again that her terms for peace involve the surrender of the four occupied Ukrainian territories. I challenge anyone to tell me with a straight face that these terms are reasonable and should be accepted not only by Ukraine, but by the international community as a whole.
 
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