Soldato
- Joined
- 23 May 2006
- Posts
- 7,311
i hope you are right..... what a mess!. i will google and check out the video you suggest, thanks
Last edited:
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
- Thread starter areksnumbr1sxylady
- Start date
- Status
Soldato
Russia will never admit to anything but their the only ones in a position to take such an action. Most likely they rigged up the dam to explode while they were running away from the right bank of the river just incase the Ukrainians followed them across.
its an old video from 2022
current version is that construction failed from accumulated damage of many previous shellings
explains how the situation and timing doesn't really make sense to either side
Soldato
The most likely answer is the Russians blew this up, no missile is going to do that much damage to it from the Ukraine side, Russia must have rigged it to blow from the inside.
Soldato
- Joined
- 21 Jan 2010
- Posts
- 3,568
I think more likely it was Russia than Ukraine.
Pros
Russia holds the site, so has opportunity now
Ukraine apparently "punished" for offensive early on
Likely restricts Ukrainian mobility
No loss for Russia if they are losing that land anyway
Long-term strategic problem and cost for ukraine
Flooding causes civilian pain for Ukraine
Cons
Affects zaporizhya plant, which Russia hold
Affects water supply to Crimea
Cost to Russia if they retake that land in future
There's no guarantees as not everyone is a rational actor at all times, but the chances at the moment of a widespread nuclear exchange over this conflict are currently pretty small, hence why we are now reaching the end of our own "military supply" escalation ladder ie: there's not much more to give after the 4th Gen fighter planes.
The video is here to save you searching
This argument is way more in depth than this statement intimates. The worldwide political consequences of Russia using any form of nuclear weapon on a non nuclear power, and the precedent it sets cannot be overstated.
The consequences wouldn't just come from the West either. We have already heard that China hasn't been too keen on the nuclear sabre rattling, while the West is reported to have told Russia there would be a severe conventional response to such actions. There has to be a consequence or any nuclear power can wander into another country and do as they please.
Soldato
Not sure the total number of forces Russia had in Kherson but looking at all the open source data it looks like a few thousand at most. A lot of troops that fled Kherson have been redeployed to reinforce Lhasank, others sent in Vuldahadar, what's left is looks like a screening force to counter any Ukrainian crossings to the left bank of the Dnipro. Whatever is left I can't see it being enough to make much of a difference at a strategic level.
Okay so I might just be thick, but people are saying it will make crossing the river more difficult, but once the dam is empty, won't the flooding downstream subside? The only long lasting effect would be lower river levels upstream, which might help one side or the other on an offensive?
Soldato
Viewing through a western lens. To know Russia you have to think like a Russian.
Affects zaporizhya plant, which Russia hold
Russian Mentality: If it melts it show the West we mean business and all it cost us was a bit of contaminated land a handful of troops that we don't care about.
Affects water supply to Crimea
Russian Mentality: We can boat it in if required otherwise the people their can find their own water
Cost to Russia if they retake that land in future
Russian Mentality: The workers will pay for it out of their taxes
Soldato
Maybe everything is going to be silted up the eyeballs?
Soldato
Yes, at the moment I don't think Putin cares about anything other than his own political future - he's probably told his generals to win at any cost.
Soldato
- Joined
- 21 Jan 2010
- Posts
- 3,568
Yep, I fully accept all of that, but those cons still exist.
Funnily enough, I'm one of the posters who have consistently pointed out the Russian mentality is different.
Last edited:
Caporegime
Thanks, didn't realise that was an old video.
If the Russians were not there in the first place there would be no previous shelling..
The Germans did a similiar thing during the Itatian campaign in Northern Italy during WW2 - the subsequent waterlogging of the land significantly slowed the advance of the allied forces.
For sure the Russians did this - it's inconceivable that the Ukranians would blow up one of the few (or only - I'm not too sure) river crossings in that area prior to their anticipated counter-attack (and hopefully, significant advance)
For sure the Russians did this - it's inconceivable that the Ukranians would blow up one of the few (or only - I'm not too sure) river crossings in that area prior to their anticipated counter-attack (and hopefully, significant advance)
Soldato
Sorry my tenses probably confused here.
But the main point remains, shorter front line and its a front line thats 1) a lot closer to Russia itself, and 2) far less likely to be able to be cut off.
Soldato
Do we still operate military hovercraft? If so export a few of those to Ukraine.
Soldato
Will be similar to pre dam going up.
Unless they were adding lots of water to the reservior then once the drain completes a normal level will be flowing downstream
- Status