I think they would be on alert regardless of the reasons the Russians give.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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I think of all the theories this is the most bizarre one.
It makes zero sense for Putin to embarrass himself and Russia like that, just to move Wagner to Belarus. Not to mention the sacrifice of expensive and important air assets.
I dont see the difference (to Ukraine's planning and observation) between "Wagner is moving to Belarus" and "Wagner is moving to Belarus due to their attempted coup/civil war".
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Ukraine already has prepared defences to the north, moving Wagner to Belarus could be a tactic to try and take some of the momentum out of a Ukrainian counter-attack due to an increased need for consideration of the possibility of having to defend the north but it doesn't need such theatrics to move Wagner to Belarus.
LOL WTF are you smoking?
Ukraine has had over a year to prepare defences and where are you getting that 35k Wagner troops are moving to Belarus? There were only 25k the other day no? + a large portion of them will be signing up with the Russian MOD or going home.
Not to mention they're hardly going to be trusted with heavy weapons no, the interior ministry would seem to be due to get some of those given they've just seen how impotent they'd otherwise be in the face of a future coup attempt that goes all the way to Moscow.
So now you're down to a few thousand Wagner troops at best, lightly armed and they're going to somehow do something, after Ukraine has had plenty of time to prepare, where the Russian Army with many tens of thousands of heavily armed troops utterly failed in February and March last year?
Doubtful it's anything of the sort, it's the result of a deal made with the Wagner boss to stop his nonsense the other day, there aren't likely any grand conspiracies here, Russia simply didn't know until right beforehand that that farce was going to happen and hastily wrote up a deal.
They're not likely to let Wagner keep much in the way of weapons and they're not going to be funded... so a chunk will move across to the MOD, a chunk will disband and some will end up in Belarus with the boss and/or carry on their activities in Africa.
If he's down to a few thousand men at most and a load of his artillery, MBTs etc.. have been taken and he's no longer being funded then he's not really in a positon to do much.
That's pretty much what the spat was about, the July deadline for PMCs to sign over to the MOD.
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Soldato
Soldato
Just encircle the city and seal it off.
Soldato
Ukraine-Russia war: Russia paid $1 billion to Wagner group in one year, says Putin
Vladimir Putin has said the Wagner militia has been entirely supported by the Russian state since it joined the war.
www.telegraph.co.uk
Soldato
When you watch the maps, day by day that appears to be what they are doing.
Ground being taken to the North and South directly, and to the NW and NE.
At this rate in a month or so its going to be either encircled or nearly so.
Caporegime
That'll be why they haven't entered it.
Man of Honour
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By far the best strategy. They’ll soon surrender or get pummelled to the death.
Might get to see CR2s in use soon given the changes on the map :s (not that it is that difficult to work out but a little leery of being more specific).
Entering Bakhmut makes little sense IMO as it would just be getting forces bogged down in street fighting and tie up a lot of assets for something which can relatively easily be put under pressure from the western edges and rendered less than useful for Russia if the fighting moves on elsewhere.
Entering Bakhmut makes little sense IMO as it would just be getting forces bogged down in street fighting and tie up a lot of assets for something which can relatively easily be put under pressure from the western edges and rendered less than useful for Russia if the fighting moves on elsewhere.
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Soldato
Guessing they're going to have to retake soledar though maybe, or circle around even more widely from the north.
Soldato
Imagine Bakhmut being retaken in a month when it took 11 months to capture for the Russians.
Man of Honour
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I mean Ukraine are being cautious and it’s encouraging that it sounds like they haven’t fully committed and yet they’re still recapturing territory that’s been lost for years. It’ll be hard for Russia to push back. Especially now western supply lines and production must be pretty solid.
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Soldato
Do people remember what they did a year ago today?
Soldato
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You think moving 35k troops to Belarus can go unnoticed? It makes no difference how or why they got there, they weren't hiding whatever the reason.
Alternatively you only need a small squad to continue training/start sabotaging things.
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