Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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IMO the only advantage of Belarus as a staging post, WAS, how close it is to Kyiv.
That advantage is pretty much gone now.

Ukraine have fortififed that border which is actually a reasonable natural defence anyway. They now also have limited Western weapons that can make those highways truly deadly to pass.
Almost certainly have zerod in arty and mined to hell.

Wagner are going to be interesting to observe (as much as we can) they are Mercs, they expect to be paid. As well as the Russian state a lot of income was coming from Africa. Who precisely is going to maintain that part seems unknown.
The makeup of the Wagner forces as well, I mean the convicts for example would they sign up with the rest of the Russian forces, maybe if it was that or jail.
If they can go to Belarus to see their time out, or what all seems unknown.

I struggle to see Wagner in Belarus being more than 5-10k of troops max.

I think the Ukraine / Belarus border is going to end up as a militarised one. Just the same as Poland have done / are doing.
 
Terminal_Boy said:
The Ukrainians must have every road, path and goat track on their side of their Belarusian border mined and pre-registered for artillery and under 24/7 surveillance by satellite, ELINT airframes and drones.
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Sounds like perfect place for Putin to send all the mercs he apparently pardoned for their part in mutiny/ coup/ uprising/ whatever you want to call it.
 
Bug One said:
What would be the the beneifit of Wagner going all the way to Belarus to launch attack. The border between Russia and Ukraine is massive - I don't really understand why all the fighting is happening in just the east - and the rest of the border seems to be mostly uncontested.
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Because Ukraine already kicked Russia out of the rest of it. And because the East seems to be the region Russia actually wants, perhaps in order to secure a landbridge to Crimea.
 
bingham67 said:
Imagine Bakhmut being retaken in a month when it took 11 months to capture for the Russians.
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Bakhmut is a meat grinder, the last thing they want is to be caught up in it again, causalities on both sides were huge.

They should just pound it from a distance to trap the Russians inside, any direct hits are a bonus.

Keep their heads down and away from the battles elsewhere.

I know it has some strategic value but the cost is just too high.

Himars and some snipers can keep them locked up in there.
 
potatolord said:
A strange take.

They're already in a war with Ukraine, and they are Russian.
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Not sure if we are talking about the same thing.

The Russians hit a Ukrainian Pizza restaurant with a missile. The missile was apparently accurate enough that the Russians knew what they were targetting. Hence, my comment that surely the Russians should know that deliberately targetting civilians (is a war crime and) has a negative impact on their cause.
 
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SpellowHouse said:
Not sure if we are talking about the same thing.

The Russians hit a Ukrainian Pizza restaurant with a missile. The missile was apparently accurate enough that the Russians knew what they were targetting. Hence, my comment that surely the Russians should know that deliberately targetting civilians (is a war crime and) has a negative impact on their cause.
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Yeah, I did understand your point.

From the Russian perspective:
It's Russia- they don't care
The Ukrainians already hate them
Everyone else hates them
What do they have to lose, apart from the cost of a missile?

I know it's a cynical view, but it's good to remember that they don't view things like we do.
 
potatolord said:
What do they have to lose, apart from the cost of a missile?
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They lose using that missile to actually achieve a military aim. The Russian approach seems to have been to try and brutalise Ukraine so much that they give up. An approach that worked in Chechnya. But it has failed, and will continue to fail. They simply don't have the ability to bombard Ukraine into surrender, so all they're doing by trying is wasting energy and munitions that could actually help them if targetted elsewhere.
 
Also the missile may not have hit the intended target, a waste all around.
Russia uses cruise missiles for offensive action against other foes in other conflicts too. So it increases their demand and impacts hose offensives too.

Russia has learnt the days of lead and shell cost for a war are gone. You can maintain operations if all the hardware is left undefended.

Also cruise missiles are starting to get counter measures such as flare and chaff packs, the issue is to make them effective other than simple terminal use, requires technology and that takes up payload space and reduces range.
 
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Mr Jack said:
They lose using that missile to actually achieve a military aim. The Russian approach seems to have been to try and brutalise Ukraine so much that they give up. An approach that worked in Chechnya. But it has failed, and will continue to fail. They simply don't have the ability to bombard Ukraine into surrender, so all they're doing by trying is wasting energy and munitions that could actually help them if targetted elsewhere.
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I agree, and pointed out the cost of a missile in my response.

Russia's mindset is to just blow stuff up, and hope for the best.

I'm not saying it's rational, or even effective, it is just the way they do things.
 
Jono8 said:
His brain must be scrambled right now and his blood boiled.

I hope he doesn't crack under the pressure of it all.

Was he poached by Prigozhin for the mutiny?

Don't think this will be over easy for him.
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lets be honest Putin needs heads to roll, he doesn't care who they are.

He will convict whoever fits the bill and say they mutineer's were dealt with

Prigozhin will get away with it because they have other projects in Africa etc but he will also be dealt with when timing is right.
Colonel_Klinck said:
bullets to the back of the head, no loss to the world. Plenty more in Russia deserving a similar fate.
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