Things don't look very bright for Ukraine right now. Putin looks like he's in good health and his regime is probably solid. The US seems to be afraid of escalation - so not giving enough weapons for Ukraine to break the Russian defense lines. Still no decision to supply ATACMS - which in large numbers can ruin the Russian logistics. Not enough Patriots and other air defense systems to protects the big cities, like Odessa, and the front lines. Hopefully at least Germany decides to supply Ukraine with a good number of Taurus missiles.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Soldato
On the other hand, even if the die hard western countries continue to supply arms to Ukraine and they just keep picking the Russians off it seems fairly intolerable.
Personally I'm convinced the US is doing very cynical calculations so as to keep the situation in equilibrium - any time it is looking bad for Ukraine they step up, any time Ukraine gains momentum they drag things out.
US has an invested reason from seeing Russia slowly bleed out over a long time period but to be fair they also do need to keep a weather eye on China and other developing threats and not exploitable due to being significantly over-committed in other parts of the world - which I suspect is a significant factor behind the shambles of a drawdown from Afghanistan.
Ultimately though I think Europe needs to get its act together - I don't believe for a moment Putin had any serious intentions of an invasion of Europe, though maybe fantasised about it, but it would be extremely ignorant of the mindset of those who make up the Russian regime to think that if they'd have had an easy time of Ukraine they wouldn't have pushed on to see how far they'd get until stopped. While some like Putin might not openly display their true thoughts on the West you can see from the stuff coming out of their state sanctioned media mouthpieces their true sneering attitude. Make no mistake Putin would have no compunctions about wiping out every single person in Europe to get his own way if it was necessary to do so and if he could get away with it. While Ukraine massively put down that threat I think it will grow again in the longer run as Russia has less and less to lose from staying on a war footing - something we should be mindful of.
While we shouldn't be paranoid or cowering from it I think we should be mindful that this situation does have implications for our futures and Europe should be doing much more to make sure the likes of Putin understand they can't threaten that.
US has an invested reason from seeing Russia slowly bleed out over a long time period but to be fair they also do need to keep a weather eye on China and other developing threats and not exploitable due to being significantly over-committed in other parts of the world - which I suspect is a significant factor behind the shambles of a drawdown from Afghanistan.
Ultimately though I think Europe needs to get its act together - I don't believe for a moment Putin had any serious intentions of an invasion of Europe, though maybe fantasised about it, but it would be extremely ignorant of the mindset of those who make up the Russian regime to think that if they'd have had an easy time of Ukraine they wouldn't have pushed on to see how far they'd get until stopped. While some like Putin might not openly display their true thoughts on the West you can see from the stuff coming out of their state sanctioned media mouthpieces their true sneering attitude. Make no mistake Putin would have no compunctions about wiping out every single person in Europe to get his own way if it was necessary to do so and if he could get away with it. While Ukraine massively put down that threat I think it will grow again in the longer run as Russia has less and less to lose from staying on a war footing - something we should be mindful of.
While we shouldn't be paranoid or cowering from it I think we should be mindful that this situation does have implications for our futures and Europe should be doing much more to make sure the likes of Putin understand they can't threaten that.
No I don't think the US is afraid of escalation, more that they're not being frivolous with escalating. It all comes down to applying a certain amount of pressure - on Russia and China. Applying that pressure means Russia's economy drops off a cliff, which then places pressure on Russia's allies and China will want zero escalation if it will destroy their unstable trading economy and they don't get anything out of it.
Rroffs point is correct, the US is looking at the longer term picture with China, applying the pressure reduces the likelihood of a war and depowers Xi. The fact that Xi would then fail to recapture Taiwan then results in a massive loss of face, causing a power struggle in the CPP and that slows economic recovery and prolongs the Tiawan situation.
It also solves the issue of US armed forces basically getting extra funding to replenish the stockpiles and rate of production (increases army potency) helping with any support for US interests/allies. Russia is doing the same and so is China. European countries match that too. Essentially all the armed forces and arms suppliers in the world love this as they get extra cash for all the escalation rather than the de-escalation of forces since the 1980s.
I suspect Russia, given its disregard to external agreements, would also be looking to restart (a) nuclear weapon production and (b) bio/chemical warfare production. Only China (as the #1 in BRACS) is concerned and would look to prevent escalation on a global scale. The resulting stop of trade (protecting against possible contamination with mainland china) would decimate the Chinese economy.
The US knows China's goal of surpassing the US requires the use of its economy. That is Russia's Achilles Heel given it's own corruption and overestimation.
China is happy to wait the long term - let the European countries get into recession (Germany etc) and then continue to drive influencing factors - that results in a loss of external trade for the US, slowing/driving down it's economy.
So I see a larger game of economics, the war in Ukraine is simply a tactical theatre (and the loss of life inhumane, playing on the history between Russia and Ukraine). Ukraine is right to fight for its independence. It's right to support that in defence against aggression (irrespective of a military or economic offensive). In the end Russia is being used as a pawn to its master. Putin has lost Russia in that game - he's all in with all his chips - and China has both depowered Russia's influence in BRACS, increased Russia's trade dependancy on China and achieved a goal that Russia's population becomes polarised and self reinforcing to remove any chance that it can walk away from the this situation. Essentially China has managed (though "common" ideology and political single mindedness of its politics) to annex Russia. Russia initially thought it would provide a great way to reinvent itself, reduce it's population that disagrees (ie prisoners of all types) and to solidify power (trimming the corrupt ranks not loyal to Putin). Only to loose the key mechanisms that Putin needs for economic growth, but that suit's Putin's vision of the USSR..
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The sense i get is US would rather bleed Russia slowly than commit enough equipment, man-power etc to really move things along. Europe is weak in this regard and largely follows what the US does. I'd rather this ended quickly than some decade long war, stalemate as Russia truly has no limit to the absolute depravity of war crimes, some of the stories are just beyond shocking, and I thought the West did some bad stuff in Iraq, Afghanistan.
Soldato
burn baby burn
Soldato
Wonder what was being produced there?
Caporegime
Copium, it's why the explosion is so large.
Caporegime
NAFO is still crowdfunding vehicles for Ukraine. You love to see it!
Caporegime
Optics are known to spectacularly explode, right?
This territory was also used for pyrotechnics production and thats what went up.
No more fireworks
Caporegime
The article I quoted explicitly mentions that it was storing explosive equipment.
I assume they used some flammable chemicals during the processing (possibly electric or gas go heat).. just seems a big bang for what is melted glass.
Soldato
There's pictures of what looks like tank shells nearby. So I'm guessing they were producing those as well.
Don
Optical guidance systems for AGMs? It would make sense as several of the main Russian AGMs are TV guided.
You would have thought they would have seen it coming...
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