Things don't look very bright for Ukraine right now. Putin looks like he's in good health and his regime is probably solid. The US seems to be afraid of escalation - so not giving enough weapons for Ukraine to break the Russian defense lines. Still no decision to supply ATACMS - which in large numbers can ruin the Russian logistics. Not enough Patriots and other air defense systems to protects the big cities, like Odessa, and the front lines. Hopefully at least Germany decides to supply Ukraine with a good number of Taurus missiles.
No I don't think the US is afraid of escalation, more that they're not being frivolous with escalating. It all comes down to applying a certain amount of pressure - on Russia and China. Applying that pressure means Russia's economy drops off a cliff, which then places pressure on Russia's allies and China will want zero escalation if it will destroy their unstable trading economy and they don't get anything out of it.
Rroffs point is correct, the US is looking at the longer term picture with China, applying the pressure reduces the likelihood of a war and depowers Xi. The fact that Xi would then fail to recapture Taiwan then results in a massive loss of face, causing a power struggle in the CPP and that slows economic recovery and prolongs the Tiawan situation.
It also solves the issue of US armed forces basically getting extra funding to replenish the stockpiles and rate of production (increases army potency) helping with any support for US interests/allies. Russia is doing the same and so is China. European countries match that too. Essentially all the armed forces and arms suppliers in the world love this as they get extra cash for all the escalation rather than the de-escalation of forces since the 1980s.
I suspect Russia, given its disregard to external agreements, would also be looking to restart (a) nuclear weapon production and (b) bio/chemical warfare production. Only China (as the #1 in BRACS) is concerned and would look to prevent escalation on a global scale. The resulting stop of trade (protecting against possible contamination with mainland china) would decimate the Chinese economy.
The US knows China's goal of surpassing the US requires the use of its economy. That is Russia's Achilles Heel given it's own corruption and overestimation.
China is happy to wait the long term - let the European countries get into recession (Germany etc) and then continue to drive influencing factors - that results in a loss of external trade for the US, slowing/driving down it's economy.
So I see a larger game of economics, the war in Ukraine is simply a tactical theatre (and the loss of life inhumane, playing on the history between Russia and Ukraine). Ukraine is right to fight for its independence. It's right to support that in defence against aggression (irrespective of a military or economic offensive). In the end Russia is being used as a pawn to its master. Putin has lost Russia in that game - he's all in with all his chips - and China has both depowered Russia's influence in BRACS, increased Russia's trade dependancy on China and achieved a goal that Russia's population becomes polarised and self reinforcing to remove any chance that it can walk away from the this situation. Essentially China has managed (though "common" ideology and political single mindedness of its politics) to annex Russia. Russia initially thought it would provide a great way to reinvent itself, reduce it's population that disagrees (ie prisoners of all types) and to solidify power (trimming the corrupt ranks not loyal to Putin). Only to loose the key mechanisms that Putin needs for economic growth, but that suit's Putin's vision of the USSR..
