Associate
imo we are seeing the very early stages of ww3. A slow start simply because of the threat of nuclear weapons. If these didn't exist we would now be in all out war
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Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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It is not about losing nerve, but having little appetite, and it is a gamble.
Putin is not certainly not stupid, but is this clever? No, he has limited options, and is effectively railroaded by the circumstances he has found himself in. Had Putin foreseen a multi year campaign of this scale he would have prepared better.
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Associate
He undoubtedly miscalculated. But he is playing the long game. He can afford to as he knows we won't like our way of life affected. And western governments won't like the effect it is and will have on prices of oil/gas food ect ect. So the west don't have the stomach for the long game as he does
The long game requires pruning dissonance from the command chain.
So far corruption has delayed, but next issue is effectiveness of the “shell into oblivion” if your artillery is quickly destroyed. Also artillery shows it’s weakness if the quality of barrels limits it’s lifetime before it blows up.
Before Putin can continue he needs effective weapons that will not lose him support in BRICS (nuclear and chemical/biological).
Also the corruption in China has made the replacement equipment he can use to replace worn/lost kit, unreliable due to material quality.
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Associate
The problems Russia are having with their militaries effectiveness stems from the problem of having to constantly appease the dictator. And the undoubted corruptness of the generals. I worry this preliminary invasion is just for learning what needs to be changed or improved upon. Why have they not gone all in yet? Why are they keeping their "best weapons" back? Maybe so the west expend much of what they have stockpiled. All part of
Putins plan? Or did Putin NOT have the weapons he has been boasting of?
Putins plan? Or did Putin NOT have the weapons he has been boasting of?
Soldato
I dunno personally if Putin can afford the long game at the rate hes losing tanks etc. Assuming the long game means carry on as they are now.
For sure Russia has some production, and they can buy some in from "friends", but they are being wrecked on the battlefield.
Some commentary recently putting troop loses in the 12:1 region, and that in the vast majority of the areas Russia are pushing they are losing lots of tanks and APCs
They are seemingly unable to really break through, they are just paying for ground with blood, the Ukrainians giving ground whilst extracting a heavy price.
Just like Bakmut. The towns etc Russia is capturing now are just wrecks, nothing there. They hold little strategic value but Russia it seems must have them.
That makes me think more and more they want to sue for peace and to try to hang on to every scrap of land they currently control.
For sure Russia has some production, and they can buy some in from "friends", but they are being wrecked on the battlefield.
Some commentary recently putting troop loses in the 12:1 region, and that in the vast majority of the areas Russia are pushing they are losing lots of tanks and APCs
They are seemingly unable to really break through, they are just paying for ground with blood, the Ukrainians giving ground whilst extracting a heavy price.
Just like Bakmut. The towns etc Russia is capturing now are just wrecks, nothing there. They hold little strategic value but Russia it seems must have them.
That makes me think more and more they want to sue for peace and to try to hang on to every scrap of land they currently control.
Soldato
What best weapons? The Su57 and T14 he has a handful at most of both. Hes used his best missiles.
His best MBT is not the one with the highest number and plenty of them are now either in Ukraines hands having been abandoned and captured, or wrecks on the battlefield.
Putin was told numbers that, when you look at the equipment in storage aren’t serviceable and often not worth recovering parts from in the long term game due to corruption causing a loss of competitive development.
Are they effective.. perhaps but manpads/AT/drones have changed the economics of the battlefield. Russia had not moved forward and this is playing a high risk game when scale of front would have been their key to advancing.
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Soldato
The money and the arms haven’t run out. They are just stuck in the west.
This is either a war we win in Ukraine or we have to fight closer to home.
The idea that the west has the option just to become tired and that’s the end of it is false.
If we give up the Russian army is still there just over the boarder. And we have just told Putin that we can’t be bothered to fight.
What happens next?
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More Russian nukes being sent to the boarder of Poland. The Russian nation being groomed for a war economy. Long range ballistic missile testing. Invasion of a peaceful nation under false pretences. All on the command of 4’2” tyrannical lunatic. It’s probably time to up defence spending and start quietly developing offensive capabilities for the medium-long term. Just in case Vladolf muster some support and Forrest Gumps his way to victory.
This. It is stupid to give up support now. Means every penny spent so far was mostly wasted (apart from whittling down the Russian army a bit). Probably would have been better of letting Puting take the bits of Ukraine he wanted from the start and saved all the bloodshed.
The entire west should be in this for the long haul, and give Ukraine enough resources to grind Russia down until their goals become pointless.
I mean, you can deny it. It is clear that he never expected to get bogged down in a slow and costly war of attrition that has cost the Russian army immense losses.
He likely hoped that the west would not interfere as much as they have and that he would easily just take the bits of Ukraine in the east he wanted, just like he did with Crimea.
We (the civilised world) would be in a special 3 day military operation.
The issue Putin has is he’s separated himself from reality and built his nation on spineless and unscrupulous yes men. A few determined European nations and Russia will be free from Putin.
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No. I think it’s going to become the russian tax of increased defence spending that’s actively consumed. I don't think it’s a short pay blip that has been wasted.
Who against who?
Wonder how that morale is holding up?
It's a bad thing that international support is wavering somewhat for Ukraine.
Obviously they can't keep fighting if there's not the sufficent will within their own populace.
But there are immense strategic benefits, to the Wests long term stability, by showing a strong united front to show that such aggression will be resisted and the will be considerable down sides for such belligerence.
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They don’t specify if it was to boost Russian or Ukrainian morale.
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