Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[rumple9]

NATO has a population 7 times greater and an economy 25 times greater than Russia. There is no reason other than being asleep at the wheel for why nato can't even match Russian shell production

Russia is manufacturing 100k shells a month and are trying to ramp up to 200k a month, so nato should be able to do 200k to 300k easy

Russia is operating on a full wartime economy, NATO countries aren't. In addition to which Russia is exchanging oil and gas at undervalue with Iran for arms

 

[rumple9]

I remember the days when neoliberals like Thatcher and Reagan believed Russia could be civilised by capitalism. They were convinced that as soon as Russians experienced the joys of a free market, they'd quickly embrace Western values.

The neoliberals were comically naïve, and their failure to correctly assess the sheer barbarism of the Russian psyche left the West grossly unprepared for the Putin era.

Thatcher and Reagan weren't wrong. The problem is Russia surpassed capitalism and went to the extreme of a kleptocracy under Putin (how else does a former taxi driver become the richest man in the world? Same with the likes of Abramovich, a former market stall trader, Prigozin a hot dog seller etc etc).

After the current regime falls/dies off there's no reason why Russia couldn't be a democratic capitalist state

 

[Maple Leaf]

Its very difficult to say but generally most operations rarely work 24/7.
They may work that, but the costs of labour generally means over a reasonable period the optimum is more assets not working full time.

As such, and there is evidence of this from the American 155mm supplier(s), is that its fairly simple to increase production short term by just requiring or requesting overtime to be used and move to 24/7.

Yes, I should have said to *greatly* increase production, rather than just to increase production. Clearly, you could double production by going from one 12 hour shift a day to two 12 hour shifts a day, or increase production by 50% by going from two 8 hour shifts a day to three 8 hour shifts a day (assuming you can source all the extra component parts).

The MOD placed an order in June 2023 with BAE to provide an eight-fold increase in the production of 155mm artillery shells by 2025. A production increase like that (assuming they are being manufactured inside the UK only) would need new manufacturing facilities to be brought online and more trained workers to operate them.

 

[arknor]

I bet even with the decade long war in Ukraine their roads still look less bomb scared than ours

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Yes, I should have said to *greatly* increase production, rather than just to increase production. Clearly, you could double production by going from one 12 hour shift a day to two 12 hour shifts a day, or increase production by 50% by going from two 8 hour shifts a day to three 8 hour shifts a day (assuming you can source all the extra component parts).

The MOD placed an order in June 2023 with BAE to provide an eight-fold increase in the production of 155mm artillery shells by 2025. A production increase like that (assuming they are being manufactured inside the UK only) would need new manufacturing facilities to be brought online and more trained workers to operate them.

You would be surprised how many places still work 8 hours a day 5 days week. 40 hours. Even often, only scheduling say 40 weeks a year, with time for shutdowns and plant maintenance etc
When 24/7 is basically 4x that amount!

How hard it is to scale up will depend a lot of that sort of ratio.

Much production is now so automated that 1 member of staff can supervise a lot, it just depends on how automated and of course what they need to do if something goes wrong.
Often the less specialised stuff like loading etc can be trained very quickly. Eg taking experience FLT drivers to feed the lines and remove the completed production.

 

[Sankari]

Thatcher and Reagan weren't wrong. The problem is Russia surpassed capitalism and went to the extreme of a kleptocracy under Putin (how else does a former taxi driver become the richest man in the world? Same with the likes of Abramovich, a former market stall trader, Prigozin a hot dog seller etc etc).

After the current regime falls/dies off there's no reason why Russia couldn't be a democratic capitalist state

Kleptocracy is perfectly compatible with captalism.

During the 90s, when Russian oligarchs were busy seizing control of their country's assets, neoliberal guru Thomas Friedman—who infamously promised that capitalism would make China more democratic, and held the same view of Russia—developed a thesis he humorously referred to as the 'Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention.'

This thesis stated that 'No two countries that both have a McDonald's have ever fought a war against each other.' It followed the longstanding libertarian maxim, 'the freer the market, the freer the people', to which Friedman also subscribed.

Predictably, his thesis aged worse than hot milk in the sun.

 

[arknor]

The MOD placed an order in June 2023 with BAE to provide an eight-fold increase in the production of 155mm artillery shells by 2025. A production increase like that (assuming they are being manufactured inside the UK only) would need new manufacturing facilities to be brought online and more trained workers to operate them.

have you seen hoiw they are made? you can't just ramp up production by hiring more workforce

UK factory

it'a all machines and tooling thats expensive to create more of and takes a lot of time to set up, then when it's not needed anymore it's a massive investment they no longer need.

USA factory

second video is better

The only thing humans seem to do it put the markings on and package them up, then they still need to be filled with TNT which is probably machine again
French factory

I think I saw a factory in the USA where they still made some shells by hand with manual presses etc. but I can't find the video

 

[jigger]

But you have to remove them from their habitat entirely, and spend time domesticating them. It can't be done in their natural environment, and it can't be done with capitalism alone.

The Russian people need to make a decision. A decision that so far Russian people seem incapable of making at least in part because of the tyrannical of government and insidiously creeping state policies of the Kremlin to remove freedoms. The Russian state has gone so far to publicly silence people for expressing decency and normalise torture and murder of the innocent.

I agree, I think much more than capitalism would be needed to resolve the issues of such a backward nation. History sets out what would be required to bring a nation in this condition into the fold. Building Ukraine into an undeniable example of freedom and prosperity between now and 2036 as Putin drags Russia ever closer to the likes of Iran, Syria and North Korea while China continues its expansion into Russian territory.

 

[tamzzy]

Russia, Iran and North Korea are able to produced more munitions, in a shorter order than NATO and the rest of the modern world including the US. Collectively these nations have the ability to wage war on Europeans, destabilise Africa and operate a large scale terror campaign in the Middle East and much of the Arab world.

This inability to supply small arms and artillery munitions to Ukraine is shameful. I’d argue that for every shell the Russians and Co fire at Ukraine, NATO should be able to supply Ukraine the capability to fire back three precision guided shells. Looking at the economic figures, each shell gold plated and chocolate coated no less.

NATO has a population 7 times greater and an economy 25 times greater than Russia. There is no reason other than being asleep at the wheel for why nato can't even match Russian shell production

Russia is manufacturing 100k shells a month and are trying to ramp up to 200k a month, so nato should be able to do 200k to 300k easy

The difference between the west and Russia/NK/china is the the economy/wealth/GDP of the west/NATO is paper wealth derived from services and financial exchanges. Russia/nk/china have a heavy manufacturing base that the west lacks.
The western oligarchy drives western governmental decisions whereas for Russia/NK/china, the government is the oligarch.

 

[rumple9]

Do any of you guys donate directly to Ukraine? Which organisation do you go through (particularly interested in military aid)?

Be careful !

US Ballerina faces 20 years jail for donating $51 to Ukraine

 

[Stu999]

Be careful !

US Ballerina faces 20 years jail for donating $51 to Ukraine

I don’t think there’s much danger of me going to Russia.

 

[jigger]

The difference between the west and Russia/NK/china is the the economy/wealth/GDP of the west/NATO is paper wealth derived from services and financial exchanges. Russia/nk/china have a heavy manufacturing base that the west lacks.
The western oligarchy drives western governmental decisions whereas for Russia/NK/china, the government is the oligarch.

That’s without China, although China could be back filling North Korea on the QT. The West has plenty of potential capacity to supply Ukraine, but the issue is the lack of control and production capacity within NATO and of its government members for even the most basic type of munitions. Having a chain of many in house facilities throughout NATO would be a would a sensible tactical and strategic capability to possess. Any gaps in supply could be filled with a small collective effort and a simple order.

What would be required isn’t a nation bringing massive economy changing industrial production capacity online and re shaping its workforce. It’s forging steel, casting lead and machining on a small scale.

 

[zuludawn]

Avdiivka should or could have been an opportunity for Ukraine to bleed Russia.

Sustained fighting in the area should have helped remove most of the population, then defend it hard as they have done.

Then faint a retreat owing to lack of shells, arms etc, let Russia in and wait till they re-arm and swell their numbers for more counteroffensive in the area.

Then flatten it, obviously no general here, but for the sake of a good supply of shells etc surely the West could have seen this as an opportunity to inflict maximum damage in one area.

Just my thoughts (watched Operation Barbarossa) late this morning, Stalin's denial about Germany attacking mimics Ukraine's complacency at the beginning of the War, even down to the massive build-up of troops and everyone telling them invasion was imminent.

 

[ubersonic]

Avdiivka should or could have been an opportunity for Ukraine to bleed Russia.

Sustained fighting in the area should have helped remove most of the population, then defend it hard as they have done.

The problem is, you can't set up defensive positions in a pile of rubble.

Russia's artillery advantage let them basically turn all the buildings into dangerous ruins or collapsed debris

The Russian people need to make a decision. A decision that so far Russian people seem incapable of making at least in part because of the tyrannical of government and insidiously creeping state policies of the Kremlin to remove freedoms.

In fairness, the vast majority of people in this country can't even be bothered to protest against (or in some cases even vote against) the stuff the Tories have done in the past 14 years and that's without fear of imprisonment/death. It's a bit rich for us to expect them to put their lives on the line to stop Putin.

Hell, the protests against the Iraq war were the largest in the UKs history yet it was still only 2.5% of the UK's total population involved, and that of course was without armed police ready to let rip.

The MOD placed an order in June 2023 with BAE to provide an eight-fold increase in the production of 155mm artillery shells by 2025. A production increase like that (assuming they are being manufactured inside the UK only) would need new manufacturing facilities to be brought online and more trained workers to operate them.

One problem I foresee here is that the MOD usually orders it's asbestos* from Russia, and we've sanctioned it xD

*Asbestos is still used in UK military/nuclear installations where having the best protection is of utmost importance.

 

[Minusorange]

The problem is, you can't set up defensive positions in a pile of rubble.

Depends on terrain elevation, take Monte Cassino for example where ruins made it more defensive for the Germans dug in there

 

[Freddie1980]

The problem is, you can't set up defensive positions in a pile of rubble.

Russia's artillery advantage let them basically turn all the buildings into dangerous ruins or collapsed debris



In fairness, the vast majority of people in this country can't even be bothered to protest against (or in some cases even vote against) the stuff the Tories have done in the past 14 years and that's without fear of imprisonment/death. It's a bit rich for us to expect them to put their lives on the line to stop Putin.

Hell, the protests against the Iraq war were the largest in the UKs history yet it was still only 2.5% of the UK's total population involved, and that of course was without armed police ready to let rip.



One problem I foresee here is that the MOD usually orders it's asbestos* from Russia, and we've sanctioned it xD

*Asbestos is still used in UK military/nuclear installations where having the best protection is of utmost importance.

It was just artillery though, Russian jets were dropping glide bombs on them at will towards the end. It seems that over 2023 Russia has learnt some lessons from the previous two years of fighting, although there tactical use of infantry and armour remains pretty much the same they so use more drones for reconnaissance (as well as FPV attacks), electronic interference, long range stand off munitions all of which has made it harder for Ukraine to resupply frontline units.

 

[EddScott]

Then faint a retreat owing to lack of shells, arms etc, let Russia in and wait till they re-arm and swell their numbers for more counteroffensive in the area.

Then flatten it,

I've considered this also. Could they not sacrifice somewhere, like Avdiivka, claim they've run out of shells and pull back, then hammer the hell out of them with the shells they've been hiding

 

[arknor]

Depends on terrain elevation, take Monte Cassino for example where ruins made it more defensive for the Germans dug in there

from googling it sounds like that battle wasn't over that building at all but a 10-20mile defensive German line


I see articles claiming no Germans even occupied it

Although notified that German units were not stationed in the monastery, Allied commanders were unaware, as historian John Keegan wrote, that, remarkably, the local German corps commander was a lay member of the Benedictine order and had forbidden occupation of the monastery.

 

[jigger]

The problem is, you can't set up defensive positions in a pile of rubble.

Russia's artillery advantage let them basically turn all the buildings into dangerous ruins or collapsed debris



In fairness, the vast majority of people in this country can't even be bothered to protest against (or in some cases even vote against) the stuff the Tories have done in the past 14 years and that's without fear of imprisonment/death. It's a bit rich for us to expect them to put their lives on the line to stop Putin.

Hell, the protests against the Iraq war were the largest in the UKs history yet it was still only 2.5% of the UK's total population involved, and that of course was without armed police ready to let rip.



One problem I foresee here is that the MOD usually orders it's asbestos* from Russia, and we've sanctioned it xD

*Asbestos is still used in UK military/nuclear installations where having the best protection is of utmost importance.

The difference is we have the right to protest and much less to protest. In Russia you risk everything even that of your family. I’m not seeing the similarities between the two TBH.

 

[jigger]

It was just artillery though, Russian jets were dropping glide bombs on them at will towards the end. It seems that over 2023 Russia has learnt some lessons from the previous two years of fighting, although there tactical use of infantry and armour remains pretty much the same they so use more drones for reconnaissance (as well as FPV attacks), electronic interference, long range stand off munitions all of which has made it harder for Ukraine to resupply frontline units.

Upto 100 1500kg bombs per day plus artillery. To give some perspective one of these is the equivalent of maybe 10 GLSDBs. The Ukrainians would have needed to build fortified bunkers. Its commendable the Ukrainians held as long as they did because that would have been brutal.

It is a lost opportunity where air and artillery could have shown the Ukrainians dominance.