I think you need to look at this not from an army manpower but a nation manpower. If this is 10% of 10% then 1% of a nation being lost is a rather large deal. Now I could work out the details but it's probably in the 0.1-1.0% range at the moment. That's 0.1-1% and the nation's economy is close to breaking point. The nation has a history of revolution once a threshold that the serfdom can't tolerate.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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I think you need to look at this not from an army manpower but a nation manpower. If this is 10% of 10% then 1% of a nation being lost is a rather large deal. Now I could work out the details but it's probably in the 0.1-1.0% range at the moment. That's 0.1-1% and the nation's economy is close to breaking point. The nation has a history of revolution once a threshold that the serfdom can't tolerate.
But then the ant-hill mob (capital hill get it?!
) would try and break him out of prison and we end up with a Mexican-style cartel operating.
It is still an open question really how far Russia might go or is prepared to go or how much their society will tolerate. So far they don't show many signs of pushing back against Putin.
Gotta love the concession basically being turbo Orban.Article just released, not sure on all the sources, on Russia's existing and future military situation:
Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024
Russian forces are likely to peak in late 2024, with increasing material challenges over the course of 2025.www.rusi.org
Key points:
-Kremlin projects victory needs to be/can be achieved by 2026 within their current planning for manpower mobilisation and industry output, without having to go to a full war mobilisation.
-Russian air force highly constrained by availability of trained let alone experienced pilots.
-Expect to be able to produce approx. 1500 tanks a year until 2026 via ~20% new and 80% refurbished from stored war stock.
-Has somewhat stabilised semi-conductor supplies but only by extensive investment in trying to expand on them which has failed.
-Required to manufacture ~5.6 million artillery shells over 2024 to be able to continue it aspirations in Ukraine in 2025, projected to only be able to produce about half of that with an expected lead-time of 5 years to setup new factories and material processing to accomplish that level of production. (5 years is likely not a hard limit and could be much quicker with civilian and industry mobilisation for the war effort).
-Has approx. 3 million rounds of artillery ammo left in storage, likely poor condition however, NK can provide around 2 million rounds.
-Russian prospects are declining, but it will depend on foreign support as to if Ukraine can out weather Russia to a point where the only option for both sides is to negotiate with Ukraine having the stronger hand, but that assumes Russia continues, or is limited to, the current trajectory of manpower, civil and industrial mobilisation towards the war effort.
EDIT:
The Russian aim for victory by 2026:
i.e. forcing capitulation of the entire country by establishing a geographic stranglehold and a head of state who can basically hand the rest of the country over to Russia.
Caporegime
Imagine losing ships to a nation that doesn't even have a navy.
The Russians are setting new standards for military incompetence.
The Russians are setting new standards for military incompetence.
They won't be pushing back against Putin.
The whole Tucker circus got me reading about how many journalists have been bumped off in Russia.
I really dislike comparing any situation with Nazi Germany. But it did strike a few chords with a sort of Gestapo thing.
Another one? Wow.
So I read that as:
* russia will be victorious in 2026 (first headline selling the dream)
* but only if:
* we have more aircover - without you will not get headline
* we have lots more shells and we have 1/2 capacity and without increasing this you will not get headline
* we have new technology - we got some chips from china but unreliable in the field of the special operation (requiring redesigns) and pre-built drones from Iran.. (that headline.. well don't expect new tech to solve)
* we have a need of tanks - but will use old stock as the tanks and tank crews die in them (the tank crew is harder to replace) with missiles costing 1/10th of a new tank. (this basically says tanks are useless) and don't expect old tech to solve
* therefore we need more troops to put in the firing line Zergs and build guns to support - so either war economy under military control or STFU because we're going home.
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Caporegime
Makes you think about all navies surface fleets vs what i assume was a "sea drone attack" type of thing. I doubt the UK or even USA could stop stuff like this?
or was it a missile based attack?
or was it a missile based attack?
Fixed it.. by 2026..
Soldato
This is probably true in the short-term, although not necessarily. But what about in five to ten years, after leveraging the industrial capacity, natural resources, and agriculture of the captured area? They would also forcibly mobilise all the guys from sixteen to sixty. Finally, the reason it could happen even sooner, if Lukasheko dies, Russia will take control of Belarus overtly, and that is a brand new army at their disposal.
Indeed - underwater and surface drones are a big big growth + R&D area at the moment.
Got a nuclear deterrent submarine? Well those underwater drones that loiter could be a difficult issue..
Got an aircraft carrier to project force? Well...
Got undersea cables for infrastructure and comms? Well..
Need to blockade an island you're trying to reclaim? Again..
Need to blockade a critical shipping route through middle east? Again..
Soldato
I'm no expert but surely sea drones are easier to spot than submarines and their torpedos?
That is very true, however I get the feeling they would have to process out the sympathisers making it visible.
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Yes but drones are cheap and plentiful (Navy ones will be soon enough) plus the unmanned crew have no fear...
Warfare really has changed which I find a tad worrying also. With regard with drones being cheap and available for the non rich West and available to "rogue" states, all sorts of things could be just around the corner.
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Tbh, Russia's/USSR's history is littered with assainations of dissidents, and people who oppose the regime. You can look back all the way to the Tsars in the 18th century for recorded history of these happening all the time. Irocically, I've just finished watching Litvinenko on itv. Can't believe that was 2006 - seems such a long time ago, and in the same year, a month before, Anna Politkovskaya, a Russian anti-Putin journalist was assasinated who had close ties to Litvinenko. All of these had direct links back to Putin.
Caporegime
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How many Russian black fleet ships is that now?
Soldato
Trump creating the NATO subscription model
I’m more comfortable with this than US pulling out of NATO
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