The Trumpets can’t help shield Putin with Trump in power and Trump is all over the place. Putin thought this war would have been done and forgotten about.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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The Trumpets can’t help shield Putin with Trump in power and Trump is all over the place. Putin thought this war would have been done and forgotten about.
(NB: I originally wrote this for another forum but I figured the information was worth posting here too for educational purposes).
People keep asking what Russian air defences are doing, like they have ever done anything. Here is a verbose list of all the major successes of Russian/Soviet air defences in the past 25 years:
27 March 1999: Serbian forces hit the jackpot and the stars align for them to score a billion to one shoot down on an F-117 with an S-125
4 October 2001: Ukrainian forces accidentally shoot down an airliner with an S-200 after it misses it's target drone during an exercise then fails to self destruct
9 August 2008: Georgian forces shoot down a Russian Tu-22MR reconnaissance aircraft with a Buk
14 July 2014: Russian forces in eastern Ukraine shoot down a Ukrainian transport plane with a Buk
17 July 2014: Russian forces in eastern Ukraine accidentally shoot down an airliner with a Buk
8 January 2020: Iranian forces accidentally shoot down an airliner with a Tor
18 July 2022: Russian forces accidentally shoot down their own Su-34 with an undisclosed SAM
23 August 2023: Russian forces shoot down Wagner's airliner with an undisclosed SAM
15 Jan 2024: Ukraine shoot down an A-50 with an undisclosed SAM (potentially an S-200)
As you can see, there's only 9 of them, one of which was a fluke, one of which is still unconfirmed if it was a Russia/Soviet missile, and four of which were airliners with zero defensive measures or even a warning system to tell them to take evasive action. The only thing on the list that couldn't have been stopped by a missile from the 1950s (excluding the F-117 that was stopped by a missile from the 1950s due to a fluke) was their own Su-34!
Every single time Soviet/Russian air defence missiles have been used against anything worth defending against they have completely failed to do their job. They failed to protect Iraq from Israel, they failed to protect Iraq from the US led coalition, they failed to protect Serbia from NATO (scoring a billion to one hit on an F-117 does not make up for doing nothing against the 1000s of other bombing sorties flown), they failed to protect Iraq from another US led coalition, they failed to protect Libya from a French led coalition and they failed to protect Syria from a US led coalition. The only time they have ever actually performed above terrible was in the defence of Ukraine, because Ukraine spent eight years upgrading/modernising them to not suck.
So in answer to the previous question of what the Russia air defence is doing, the answer is sucking (as usual).
People keep asking what Russian air defences are doing, like they have ever done anything. Here is a verbose list of all the major successes of Russian/Soviet air defences in the past 25 years:
27 March 1999: Serbian forces hit the jackpot and the stars align for them to score a billion to one shoot down on an F-117 with an S-125
4 October 2001: Ukrainian forces accidentally shoot down an airliner with an S-200 after it misses it's target drone during an exercise then fails to self destruct
9 August 2008: Georgian forces shoot down a Russian Tu-22MR reconnaissance aircraft with a Buk
14 July 2014: Russian forces in eastern Ukraine shoot down a Ukrainian transport plane with a Buk
17 July 2014: Russian forces in eastern Ukraine accidentally shoot down an airliner with a Buk
8 January 2020: Iranian forces accidentally shoot down an airliner with a Tor
18 July 2022: Russian forces accidentally shoot down their own Su-34 with an undisclosed SAM
23 August 2023: Russian forces shoot down Wagner's airliner with an undisclosed SAM
15 Jan 2024: Ukraine shoot down an A-50 with an undisclosed SAM (potentially an S-200)
As you can see, there's only 9 of them, one of which was a fluke, one of which is still unconfirmed if it was a Russia/Soviet missile, and four of which were airliners with zero defensive measures or even a warning system to tell them to take evasive action. The only thing on the list that couldn't have been stopped by a missile from the 1950s (excluding the F-117 that was stopped by a missile from the 1950s due to a fluke) was their own Su-34!
Every single time Soviet/Russian air defence missiles have been used against anything worth defending against they have completely failed to do their job. They failed to protect Iraq from Israel, they failed to protect Iraq from the US led coalition, they failed to protect Serbia from NATO (scoring a billion to one hit on an F-117 does not make up for doing nothing against the 1000s of other bombing sorties flown), they failed to protect Iraq from another US led coalition, they failed to protect Libya from a French led coalition and they failed to protect Syria from a US led coalition. The only time they have ever actually performed above terrible was in the defence of Ukraine, because Ukraine spent eight years upgrading/modernising them to not suck.
So in answer to the previous question of what the Russia air defence is doing, the answer is sucking (as usual).
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Soldato
I thought it was generally accepted the F117 was basically a planning error in that because it was a billion to one shot they didn't deviate enough in regards timing, course etc
So eventually the route was basically known and it was far far easier to intercept as they were monitoring a very small airspace closely, as opposed to trying to monitor a much wider airspace
Genuine question as to if the above was an urban myth or the truth.
So eventually the route was basically known and it was far far easier to intercept as they were monitoring a very small airspace closely, as opposed to trying to monitor a much wider airspace
Genuine question as to if the above was an urban myth or the truth.
This might have something to do with why they lost 4 to 5 aircraft in the last 24 hours.
Basically, to give the short story:
The Serbians knew what time the F-117s flew and the route they would take (the US didn't bother changing this as they knew the Serbians didn't have the ability to shoot down an F-117), they also knew that no other planes would be out flying SEAD or interdictor missions, etc (the US didn't bother supporting the bombers as they knew the Serbians didn't have the ability to shoot down an F-117). This meant they basically had free reign to try and find one.
So Ivan (I don't recall his name, I'm going with Ivan, if that offends the posters from Moscow so be it) tuned his radars to what he thought would work, waited, then at the right time turned them on and nothing, he turned them off waited and on again, nothing. On any other night he would now be frantically rushing to relocate before he got obliterated but he knew no SEAD planes would be out an so rolled the dice and tried again, *ping*. The rest is history.
What isn't often mentioned though is that the F-117 has a computer controlled bomb release. The target is pre-dialled in and the pilot just flies, when it's time to bomb the computer will open the door, drop the bomb, close the door. Ivan pressed his button during the only 0.5 second window of the entire flight when the door was open and the radar signature expanded long enough for him to get a lock. Put simply the odds of winning the lottery jackpot two weeks in a row are easier than hitting that F-117 was, that's how lucky he got.
Another thing not mentioned often is that the F-117s were out again the next night (though this time with actual support), Ivan never hit another, he never dared try.
This is where they myth that Russian SAMs can defend against the F-22 and F-35 comes from, and it's a myth that has sold a lot of SAMs since 1999. They can't, even the S-500 can't detect them before they are well within range to kill it. Ivan just got crazy lucky.
Soldato
Czech can provid 800k shells sourced from 3rd countries in the next few weeks provided funding is secured:
kyivindependent.com
To late for Adidvika but hopefully it will help them hold the line elsewhere while Europe continues to ramp production.
Pavel: Czechia can deliver 800,000 shells to Ukraine if allied financing secured
"We have identified at this point half a million rounds of 155 mm caliber and another 300,000 rounds of 122 mm caliber, which we will be able to deliver within weeks if we quickly find funding for that activity," Czech President Petr Pavel said at the Munich Security Conference.
kyivindependent.com
To late for Adidvika but hopefully it will help them hold the line elsewhere while Europe continues to ramp production.
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Danish. But yes.
Soldato
Makes sense, that short window when stealth was compromised
Soldato
Czech can provid 800k shells sourced from 3rd countries in the next few weeks provided funding is secured:
Pavel: Czechia can deliver 800,000 shells to Ukraine if allied financing secured
"We have identified at this point half a million rounds of 155 mm caliber and another 300,000 rounds of 122 mm caliber, which we will be able to deliver within weeks if we quickly find funding for that activity," Czech President Petr Pavel said at the Munich Security Conference.
To late for Adidvika but hopefully it will help them hold the line elsewhere while Europe continues to ramp production.
This needs the EU to stop acting like US Republicans though. Those available supplies weren't manufactured in the EU (South Korea and South African I believe) .... so the funding is apparently "difficult" to find.
Czechs are subtlety calling out the French and Germans to stop being muppets insisting on only benefiting their owns arms industries when spending the dosh.
Soldato
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Soldato
That was pilot error.Not true
February 2018 Israel–Syria incident - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
If you spam dozens of different SAMs at a few targets and one of the air crew fails to respond that isn't really a glowing result. It's better to judge that incident by the ones that missed or couldn't find their target than by the lone one that got lucky.
However you're right it should probably have been included for accuracy.
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Soldato
Interesting watch on some European history and why Russia owns Kaliningrad in 15 minutes.
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Soldato
What is going on with the F16s?
Soldato
Soldato
Good job American leaders in 1940 didn't listen or we'd all be speaking German. Shame todays leaders don't have the same morals or backbone.
I'm not trying to say the US (and Europe) can't secure a Ukrainian victory if they provide the support we should be (IMO we can), but Lindbergh was correct.
Without the USA joining the war themselves we could never have hoped to liberate France never mind push into Germany just based of the aid we were receiving. There is of course the question of if the USSR would still have been able to push the Germans back to Berlin with just US aid (or if the Germans could have held against them without having a western front splitting forces).
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Soldato
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I mean they did listen, it wasn't until 1941 when Japan attacked Pearl Harbour that forced the US into the war and they still may not have come to the aid of Europe had Germany and Japan not agreed an alliance
Czech can provid 800k shells sourced from 3rd countries in the next few weeks provided funding is secured:
Pavel: Czechia can deliver 800,000 shells to Ukraine if allied financing secured
"We have identified at this point half a million rounds of 155 mm caliber and another 300,000 rounds of 122 mm caliber, which we will be able to deliver within weeks if we quickly find funding for that activity," Czech President Petr Pavel said at the Munich Security Conference.
To late for Adidvika but hopefully it will help them hold the line elsewhere while Europe continues to ramp production.
Just make sure it’s not cast offs from North Korea.
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