WINTER 2018/2019 - Chat thread!

OCUK territory will see the LP system pushing East early afternoon with the front edge bringing rain around lunchtime for a short period, giving way to snow at around 14:00 hours. Central and Southern area's should see significant snowfall in places on Thursday judging by the ECM 21z, as it gives the LP elongation stretching out that snow line for some time.

Medium range has been touted as a return to milder conditions, 53% / 47% split in the ensemble members though for colder / mild weather.

Pretty awful winter really as the SSW didn't down-well as much as we had liked, a very lagged response really from what potentially could have been a historic winter.
 
Gypo said:
Also ignore the GFS Para and its crazy snow accumulation charts....sheer madness!
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GFS Parallel has been pushing temperatures a good 3 degrees lower than the actual on a lot of runs I noticed from when I've quickly flicked through the output.

Gypo said:
Pretty awful winter really as the SSW didn't down-well as much as we had liked, a very lagged response really from what potentially could have been a historic winter.
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Any idea whether there is the chance of another proper event? I don't understand it well enough to really know but looks like there is tentative signs at t+384 of a reversal.
 
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I think this week is a lagged response to Decembers SSW with negative arctic oscillation and a southern tracking jetstream.

Looking into February it returns to a positive AO which would suggest a return to zonal westerly winds.

I'm not an expert on strat changes though.
 
When you consider what some places in the States are about to get hit with, we get away with things very lightly!
 
Gypo said:
I think this week is a lagged response to Decembers SSW with negative arctic oscillation and a southern tracking jetstream.

Looking into February it returns to a positive AO which would suggest a return to zonal westerly winds.

I'm not an expert on strat changes though.
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Is that generally warmer, but wet weather then?
 
Zonal weather is a westerly flow from the Atlantic, usually wet. That being said I've seen another medium / long rang forecast which shows the Azores high in place over the UK bringing dry conditions.
 
Gypo said:
Zonal weather is a westerly flow from the Atlantic, usually wet. That being said I've seen another medium / long rang forecast which shows the Azores high in place over the UK bringing dry conditions.
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Was just looking at that - looks like high pressure sitting off the UK to the west/south west which would tend to suggest against wet weather but not north enough to aid real wintery weather. EDIT: Way too far off though for anything other than speculation.

EDIT: Arpege is now showing quite a band of snow passing over from the south west spreading out across the south and moving north through Thursday though temperatures again so marginal it will probably be very varied in whether it comes down as rain, sleet or snow.
 
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Snowing hard here 3 miles inland from the coast (Mid Wales) temp dropped from 2.8 to 1.4C as the snow arrived.
 
Uther said:
When you consider what some places in the States are about to get hit with, we get away with things very lightly!
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The pictures of the White House the other day, very cool in every sense of the word. Someone on another forum said it was a foot of snow and -17c there.

Funky-Melon said:
Just raining here in Southampton :(
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Ditto and ditto for the "amber weather alert" from the Met.
 
Think the amber alert was a general cold weather alert, rather then for weather.
I believe they are designed to alert more vulnerable people and carers of cold conditions.
 
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