WINTER 2018/2019 - Chat thread!

Rroff · 21 Dec 2018 at 05:45

Very low confidence in terms of outcome but tonight's model updates show massive polar disturbances through the first week of January ending with a split vortex pushed well out towards the UK - I have no idea how to interpret that however.

Yaayuh! · 21 Dec 2018 at 15:45

Winter is here!

Although it’s rather mild today.

Rroff · 22 Dec 2018 at 17:35

End of the current model output looking interesting but again too far off for confidence in an outcome - the bulk of the runs are indicating a significant temperature downturn at the end of the first week in January with some really mixed up patterns over the Arctic but again way beyond anything I have any idea how to interpret.

Minusorange · 23 Dec 2018 at 17:08

No cold in sight it seems at the moment

Rroff · 23 Dec 2018 at 22:39

Yeah now the models easing back to mild on the end of the run and the Arctic is a mess - mind you there was similar output leading upto the SSW event at the start of the year where the models didn't seem to know what to make of the input.

Conscript · 25 Dec 2018 at 08:47

I was pleased last night when it was clear and the temperature dropped....woke up to subzero temps and a heavy frost. Actually feels like Christmas now, as opposed to being just mild and wet.

Blackjack Davy · 25 Dec 2018 at 10:40

Meh its damp grey and ridiculously mild here just like every other year. Sister is in Finland and its snow, snow, snow everywhere and I really wish I was there too. Merry Xmas one and all!

Minusorange · 25 Dec 2018 at 15:03

At least the SSW has started now so we'll hopefully get a clearer picture of the fallout sooner rather than later

Huskycharllie · 30 Dec 2018 at 02:28

Interested to hear peoples thoughts?https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news...st-of-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-11593440

Rroff · 30 Dec 2018 at 02:33

There is no clear picture how the current polar disturbance is going to pan out and the effect of it - certainly some disruption but so far looks like the jet stream is in the wrong place to really let in the cold for the UK even if it did pan out like the SSW event in early 2018. Looks like some potential for colder than usual, but not especially so, weather from it over parts of Canada and to a more limited extent North America but very uncertain as to the outcome for the UK.

So far any significant impact from it has been sitting at the end of the model runs and every couple of days it has shifted on a couple more days so we are effectively not getting any closer to it LOL.

LabR@t · 30 Dec 2018 at 08:31

Looks like a decent winter is on its way at last.

robfosters · 30 Dec 2018 at 15:03

LabR@t said:
Looks like a decent winter is on its way at last.

By decent, you mean nice mild temps and no snow yeah?

LabR@t · 30 Dec 2018 at 15:09

robfosters said:
By decent, you mean nice mild temps and no snow yeah?

no, colder the better,

robfosters · 30 Dec 2018 at 15:10

LabR@t said:
no, colder the better,

Nutter

200sols · 30 Dec 2018 at 15:11

Cold, bitterly cold with some decent snowfall and crisp clear days. Perfect..

LabR@t · 30 Dec 2018 at 15:40

robfosters said:
Nutter

It is looking possible that we are going to get some decent cold on the next week or two.

Huskycharllie · 3 Jan 2019 at 08:29

Defo feeling the cold this morn brrrrrr

V_R · 3 Jan 2019 at 09:15

I need last years summer again now.

Rroff · 3 Jan 2019 at 09:23

Still not looking like we will get some notable wintery weather at the moment despite some factors would be favourable for it - though some signs at the end of current model runs at the jet stream might get pushed away late into January which might help.

Efour · 5 Jan 2019 at 07:53

Been relatively mild here up near the article circle.

It's even forecast to go up to +1 Celsius next week which as far as I'm aware is mad for this time of year. Horrible for ice too. Spring is a deathtrap for walking here.

It has snowed, but it's not been anyway as much as my previous 4 years here (so far)