Soldato
Got another 4 weeks until Winter yet 
WINTER 2018/2019 - Chat thread!
- Thread starter Neil79
- Start date
Soldato
Interesting to watch the grid here:
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
Nearly 50% of the UK's power is CCGT at the moment!
Got another 4 weeks until Winter yet
Yeah models keep trying to go cold but it isn't quite happening.
Associate
The colder the better! I like it to the point your finger ends hurt! We have no idea in the UK what cold is...makes me giggle listening to everyone at work complaining about ‘how cold it is’...wear the right gear and come rain or shine the weather should not be an issue
Tight margins indeed. Just lost power here (South Devon) for a few seconds for no apparent reason!
*edit* big crack of thunder a few moments later... that was probably why ^^
Last edited:
Soldato
- Joined
- 21 Apr 2007
- Posts
- 6,590
Basically having to put heating on most of evening now.... so fun. Freezing my nuts off.
I keep some parrots too and went into their spare room today it was 8 degrees in there.... poor homies. Temperature has crashed overnight.
I keep some parrots too and went into their spare room today it was 8 degrees in there.... poor homies. Temperature has crashed overnight.
Caporegime
Rags are saying it's turning cooler next week and scaremongering about 30 odd days of snow, any truth in it at all? Even just a little bit?
Soldato
Standard news for every winter, let me guess Daily Express. Nothing will happen
Caporegime
Maybe in Canada.
Just after some advice, I’m heading to Iceland in February and looking for some guidance as to what to take in the way of coats. I have a Rab Microlight jacket that I’m planning to take however I’m aware it isn’t waterproof. Iceland weather is known as very unpredictable so I will be taking some kind of waterproof shell.
What do people recommend, buying a cheap waterproof shell that I can wear over the insulated jacket or buy a coat that is waterproof and warm? People that have been to Iceland over winter, what did you take and was it suitable?
Thanks!
What do people recommend, buying a cheap waterproof shell that I can wear over the insulated jacket or buy a coat that is waterproof and warm? People that have been to Iceland over winter, what did you take and was it suitable?
Thanks!
Met office CPF forecast
November update
December to February
Temperature summary
For December-January-February as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures, with the highest chances of impacts from cold weather later in the period. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for December-January-February will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 25%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).
Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binari...po/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf
Precipitation summary
For December-January-February as a whole, the chances of above- or below-average precipitation are approximately similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).
Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binari.../pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-djf-v2.pdf
November update
December to February
Temperature summary
For December-January-February as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures, with the highest chances of impacts from cold weather later in the period. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for December-January-February will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 25%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).
Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binari...po/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf
Precipitation summary
For December-January-February as a whole, the chances of above- or below-average precipitation are approximately similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).
Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binari.../pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-djf-v2.pdf
Conclusions
Overall, the signals for December are quite mixed, but the most likely outcome is that the month will be unsettled and mild early and late, possibly with a colder blocked spell around mid-month, and probably wetter than average overall for the British Isles.
For January there is strong support from the analogues for colder, more settled conditions and a mean westerly flow somewhat veered from normal, pointing to northerlies being more frequent than normal, although two of the closest ENSO analogues are 2005 and 2007 which had very mild Januarys with rampant westerlies.
For February there is strong support for plenty of high latitude blocking and easterly winds blowing more frequently than normal, as has historically been very common in winters with ENSO in a relatively weak El Nino state, and both the analogues and the major long range forecast models are in strong agreement on this. In particular, any sudden stratospheric warming event in January or February, especially later in the season, would be particularly likely to give us a significant cold spell given that the probabilities are already weighted towards high latitude blocking for February.
https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal
Overall, the signals for December are quite mixed, but the most likely outcome is that the month will be unsettled and mild early and late, possibly with a colder blocked spell around mid-month, and probably wetter than average overall for the British Isles.
For January there is strong support from the analogues for colder, more settled conditions and a mean westerly flow somewhat veered from normal, pointing to northerlies being more frequent than normal, although two of the closest ENSO analogues are 2005 and 2007 which had very mild Januarys with rampant westerlies.
For February there is strong support for plenty of high latitude blocking and easterly winds blowing more frequently than normal, as has historically been very common in winters with ENSO in a relatively weak El Nino state, and both the analogues and the major long range forecast models are in strong agreement on this. In particular, any sudden stratospheric warming event in January or February, especially later in the season, would be particularly likely to give us a significant cold spell given that the probabilities are already weighted towards high latitude blocking for February.
https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal
Soldato
really mild at the moment ,called at fistral for a surf late afternoon but wasnt inviting enough so just chilled
i love how its always summer down here in peoples minds. weekends always buzzing with people
i love how its always summer down here in peoples minds. weekends always buzzing with people
Was some very interesting though hopelessly optimistic graphics shared at TWO earlier showing snow moving in across the South West before blanketing the country.
It is really tantalising as the synoptics tend to show all the elements in play for a deep cold period during this winter but it doesn't quite come together.
UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 9 Jan 2019:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast