Man of Honour
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Sleet all morning, perhaps it’s beat it wasn’t snow, we’ve had a lot of rain. Have never seen the garden this waterlogged.
Winter 2020/2021
- Thread starter Neil79
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Soldato
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oooo I'm not far away. Hope it moves a bit further south
Soldato
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Yeah lot of rain this morning stopped this afternoon but windy and grey skies and bloody cold. Spent the afternoon digging which kept me warm I'd probably have frozen to death otherwise. This really is the worst kind of winter weather theres nothing good to say about it whatsoever.
We had quite some snow today with coin sized flakes and lots of them - but nothing settling it was just too warm.
Weather models still hunting those sub -10C uppers next weekend but it looks a mess - probably going to feel some effect from the latest lots of polar disturbances around 3-4 weeks as well though that could as easily be extra-mild as cold.
EDIT: Very interesting setup the next weekend - all the right ingredients - but whether they can produce anything or not is another matter. Atlantic being held at bay with the jet stream pushed well south while cold air spills in from the east with -10 uppers likely for much of the UK (though as it is mushrooming out over Scandinavia what happens could be highly varied - wouldn't take much for it to all go elsewhere, us take the full brunt or many options in between) and low pressure in play to bring moisture into the mix though not in an ideal position.
Weather models still hunting those sub -10C uppers next weekend but it looks a mess - probably going to feel some effect from the latest lots of polar disturbances around 3-4 weeks as well though that could as easily be extra-mild as cold.
EDIT: Very interesting setup the next weekend - all the right ingredients - but whether they can produce anything or not is another matter. Atlantic being held at bay with the jet stream pushed well south while cold air spills in from the east with -10 uppers likely for much of the UK (though as it is mushrooming out over Scandinavia what happens could be highly varied - wouldn't take much for it to all go elsewhere, us take the full brunt or many options in between) and low pressure in play to bring moisture into the mix though not in an ideal position.
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Man of Honour
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Seems to be a lot of snow forecast early next week. Rain it is then 
Models are still struggling with next weekends setup which is fine as we are still at 144 hours out, we will get a blast from the east but whether it's a full blown beast from the east is a different matter.
The low may change track or warmer air might penetrate from the med, its too early to say but nevertheless interesting model watching currently as we move into the last month of winter.
The low may change track or warmer air might penetrate from the med, its too early to say but nevertheless interesting model watching currently as we move into the last month of winter.
The Daily Express says temperatures are going to hit -12C.
Which means it'll be a mild 10 degrees with some visible solar flares.
Yeah - seems to be a split between some thinking the air is going to come in more from the north and/or north east and others that it will spill out over the Barents Sea and then mushroom east and west over Scandinavia - which is often a tricky one to model as small changes could make the difference between much of the cold going one way or the other or just sinking into the continent.
Looks like with the jet pushed way south it will hold off low pressure from the Atlantic at least for awhile, while the low pressure south of us seems at least on the current runs to be moving into a more ideal position.
Most of the models are coming around to -10 uppers pushing in from the north and/or east, etc. so most of the ingredients look like being in play but whether they are in the right place at the right time, etc. is another matter.
Looks like with the jet pushed way south it will hold off low pressure from the Atlantic at least for awhile, while the low pressure south of us seems at least on the current runs to be moving into a more ideal position.
Most of the models are coming around to -10 uppers pushing in from the north and/or east, etc. so most of the ingredients look like being in play but whether they are in the right place at the right time, etc. is another matter.
Soldato
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Bloody warm on this morning's run. Very much over dressed!
Man of Honour
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Downgrades on this morning's runsmeh though I don't think the models are really nailing the outcome yet.
Yup, seems to have all changed again
Pretty mild out there today.
The one thing this thread shows is that nothing has changed since I commented in last years thread.
Forecasting more than a day or two in advance is practically impossible. It doesn’t matter how many models or forecasts you look at, nothing is going to be accurate.
They might get lucky sometimes but long term forecasts are just a waste of time.
Yesterday, XCWeather was showing a foot of snow here at the weekend with continual snow most of Saturday and Sunday. Now it’s changed to 6°C and rain.
Forecasting more than a day or two in advance is practically impossible. It doesn’t matter how many models or forecasts you look at, nothing is going to be accurate.
They might get lucky sometimes but long term forecasts are just a waste of time.
Yesterday, XCWeather was showing a foot of snow here at the weekend with continual snow most of Saturday and Sunday. Now it’s changed to 6°C and rain.
Yup, seems to have all changed again
Pretty mild out there today.
Almost all the models are still showing cold air incursions from the 7th for a few days with the jet pushed well south of us - I think that will still come off in some form - what seems to be causing problems is a couple of areas of low pressure which they seem to have trouble with - a lot of the runs this morning seem to be biasing on the side of that allowing milder air up from south of us spoiling the fun.
There is actually a rather murky story behind that :s involving the GFS model and its weighting on forecasting despite not having a great track record for accuracy. I really need to stop using it as a reference myself but it is one of the most readily available in easy to interpret format and I kind of offset for that but at the same time it is easy to get carried away.
What is somewhat concerning and where it gets a bit murky - the model comes from the same people whose modelling is used as a reference for climate change studies/modelling - if that has about as good accuracy as the GFS then we really have very poor understanding of where things are going climate change wise good or bad.
EDIT: On a related note massive consternation on some of the weather forums - at least one of the models has ballsed things up badly it remains to be seen what has actually happened.
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