Winter 2022/23 - It's too cold :(

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My goodness it’s gone mild. 14C in my gym at the moment, perfect. Only going down to 10C tonight. The end of winter is in sight. Considering the global position we’re in we’ve been lucky.
 
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So much for a few branches coming down in storm Otto. A rather large one has put a hole in the roof of one of my (admittedly empty) wood stores.

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Not such a small branch either, a few like this one came down.

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Time for a cull of some trees as they are becoming a bit of a liability.
 
A major Stratospheric Warming event has now taken place high above the arctic and there are now further hints of a cold snap with snow possible as we head towards late feb/March. At the moment I'd say there's a low risk, but the risk is more so since 2018! Here's what happened in 2018 after a warming event took place . As ever this does not Gaurantee Cold weather!

 
200sols said:
Long range forecasts are rubbish. It'll be warm, or maybe cold, it'll rain, or maybe not etc etc.
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They promised snow for weeks and beast from the east 2 and yet i still need to see the first one. Its been cold at times but that just winter to me but how these sensationalise things it sounds like end of world. lol
 
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Going to be quite a dramatic change into the 23rd - but the models currently are kind of backing off more severe winter scenarios.

Not seeing much in the way of the jet being pushed away from us until maybe early March and from the last few years of model watching these days any real cold almost never comes off unless you can see the jet displaced on the models.
 
I remember the beast from the east, it's the first time we've had a lovely proper winter.

Not getting my hopes up at the promise of snow just yet.
 
The media is so funny. ‘Omg, omg, it’s going to snow on the 2nd of March’ or some such on the radio. We can’t get the forecast right for the next hour, hell, the current hour has been wrong plenty of times :p
 
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CaptainRAVE said:
The media is so funny. ‘Omg, omg, it’s going to snow on the 2nd of March’ or some such on the radio. We can’t get the forecast right for the next hour, hell, the current hour has been wrong plenty of times :p
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I was laughing at the GFS ensembles last night - this is the current output:

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After the first couple of days of March basically everything on offer from almost summer to extreme winter (was a bit more distribution upwards last night - it has slightly moved towards colder this morning).
 
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CaptainRAVE said:
The media is so funny. ‘Omg, omg, it’s going to snow on the 2nd of March’ or some such on the radio. We can’t get the forecast right for the next hour, hell, the current hour has been wrong plenty of times :p
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Ha true. It's also like it's never happened in the history of ever either.
 
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