Winter 2024/25 - Cold or Mild? Rain or Snow?

It's been cold here for around 10 days now, single figures during the day and quite a few overnight frosts. The thing that get's me though is that it is so still, we haven't had any wind at all for almost a couple of weeks now and no rain apart from the odd day of misty muck. The River Spey is really low, like hot summer low levels. All of this is highly unusual for this time of year as we have normally had a gale or two by now, loads of rain and the Spey is normally a raging torrent. Big change coming from Friday with much colder temperatures so we may see our first snow of the year.
 
The BBC forecast I watched last night did warn of possible snow in Scotland next week. So there's the possibility it could also reach northern England too.
 
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“Frequent wintry showers are expected, mainly in the north and along eastern and western coasts were exposed to the strong north to northwesterly flow. Snow is likely to fall to low levels, especially in the north. Many inland areas may be largely dry with lengthy sunny spells, especially where sheltered from the flow. However, there is a risk of some more organised areas of rain and hill snow running east across more southern parts. The chance of any widespread or disruptive snowfall affecting more populated areas at this stage remains low though. Cold everywhere with overnight frost, and the strong winds will result in significant wind chill. There is a hint that it may become less cold later in the period, with more of a westerly flow becoming established.”
 
Neil79 said:
“Frequent wintry showers are expected, mainly in the north and along eastern and western coasts were exposed to the strong north to northwesterly flow. Snow is likely to fall to low levels, especially in the north. Many inland areas may be largely dry with lengthy sunny spells, especially where sheltered from the flow. However, there is a risk of some more organised areas of rain and hill snow running east across more southern parts. The chance of any widespread or disruptive snowfall affecting more populated areas at this stage remains low though. Cold everywhere with overnight frost, and the strong winds will result in significant wind chill. There is a hint that it may become less cold later in the period, with more of a westerly flow becoming established.”
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...in the far north. Meanwhile here in the far south we might get our first frost of the season! Not holding my breath though.
 
sprite1275 said:
So we're going to get a little bit of winter. Didn't think I needed a warning For that.
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First time this side of summer I recall seeing the GFS ensembles throwing out snow rows for runs showing snow in the double digits. Unfortunately the 850hPa temps don't quite get down to -10C so unlikely surface conditions will be that significant - the BBC/Met forecast has been bringing the temperatures down slightly with sleet making an appearance.

They've updated the forecast with a possible frost here tomorrow morning though.
 
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Jet stream not really playing ball at the moment despite some displacement (in recent years regardless of any other setup if the jet isn't playing ball and robustly -10C or lower uppers winter just doesn't happen in any significant way), so any interim winter weather is probably going to be limited, but towards the end of the month long range forecasts are showing it very much not presenting a barrier to winter conditions if they pan out.
 
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Rroff said:
Jet stream not really playing ball at the moment despite some displacement (in recent years regardless of any other setup if the jet isn't playing ball and robustly -10C or lower uppers winter just doesn't happen in any significant way), so any interim winter weather is probably going to be limited, but towards the end of the month long range forecasts are showing it very much not presenting a barrier to winter conditions if they pan out.
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Jet Stream hasn't really recovered to its normal form since the big SSW late last year or was it into early this year? But anyhoo spent most of it's time going through the MED
 
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