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None of those games are next gen though. Next gen means PS5 games made and designed and released after 2020 so Q1 2021 we will start to see new games designed for PC and next gen console. What are the actual numbers for these games you mention? Is under 10gb 9gb?
And what if someone wants a locked 8k 30fps experience? If the console can do 4k 30fps modes a few niche users will want 8k 30fps. Some might want 4k 60fps on low and others will want max textures with RT off in next gen. 10gb does not inspire me with confidence to last 24months. And saying COD at max only runs at 20fps and never uses over 10gb totally skews the arguement. Who runs max 20fps? The settings are there so a user can pick and choose.
Next gen someone will decide what they want, Effects, Textures, Raytracing in order for 10gb to be workable we need to see proof of a very good looking game with the highest textures and see how much ram is being used. Hardly any of these games exist yet nearly all the games have been in development before the new consoles arrived. Cyberpunk will be the first probable next gen game and i have yet to see any vram numbers.
I'm loathed to get into a semantics debate about what constitutes "next gen". I would rather ask; what would a console game on the PS5 made in 2021 have that CoD Cold War does not? Cold war uses all the latest technology including Ray Tracing and high resolution texture pack out the box. It's sufficiently demanding on the next gen consoles that they cannot run everything turned up, they have to have some form of compromise, so 120fps mode limits resolution to 1440p and turns off ray tracing. In RT mode you get RT effects on but 60FPS target. Both modes use dynamic resolution which renders as low as 1080p and upscales to a 4k output. The GPUs in the next gen console are significantly weaker than something like the 3080, they're much closer to a 2060.
No one plays games at 20fps, and that's precisely my point. When you turn up visual settings you increase demand on vRAM. If you take the latest games and you attempt to force them over 10GB of vRAM usage by setting all of your visual settings to max, you end up with unplayable frame rates, but you do not exceed 10GB of vRAM usage. What that demonstrates is that the bottleneck for these games is not with the vRAM, it's with the GPU. In any other configurations if you lower visual settings in order to get higher frame rates then you necessarily lower the demand on vRAM.
People keep speculating about the next gen killer console games but these consoles have essentially an RTX 2060 in them, they're slower than the current gen video cards on the PC by a decent margin. CoD Cold War has ray tracing already and it comes with base game size of 80GB with high res texture pack of 45GB and that's not exceeding vRAM.