29 million Bulgarians and Romanians will gain the right to live and work unrestricted in our country

[Hatter The Mad]

They aren't really conclusive facts though are they? No more so than the examples which have been explained earlier in this thread

You're so right; that's why it is healthy to look at multiple studies (using varieties of approaches) and sources before increasing your '% certainty'. It's quit easy to do a quick, layman's meta analysis of what's out there even without formal meta analyses being performed.

They are an analysis of statistics, which I might add don't tally up with what I see going on around me

This can be often the case. For example, everyone knows people who refer to X old people 'smoked [replace with drink/eat/defeated a bunch of cancers] all her life and still going at 90!', which runs counter to reality which is clarified through studies. Anecdotes tend to run counter to reality, because anecdotes stick and spread because they're (a) rare and/or (b) conform to popular opinion.

or indeed free market economics.

You should have said: "[My very simplistic and ammeter understanding of] free market economics.", which is to say, not an understanding which you can validly nod to in order to back up your arguments.

 

[estebanrey]

Can you point to the main studies in this area and identify where that was the actual approach?

Can you point me to the data you are referring to. Sorry but I'm not going to sit there and read two reports which are both hundreds of pages long (but I think you knew that when you posted them).

As I've said before, read and see what is available (and backed by whom) before jumping to conclusions. It is really amazing how many people are just jumping to assumptions when after about 10 min of research they'd see it is patently not the case that the research is this narrow.

And as I've said, I've done reports for local government and I know they pressure you to give them what they want to see.

But then seeing as you don't believe in anecdotal evidence it nicely mean you don't have to believe what I'm saying either.

 

[Meridian]

So all the anecdotal evidence from the length and breadth of the country is all wrong?

No. Just meaningless, like all individual anecdotal evidence. The plural of anecdote is data, but only when you've gathered large amounts of it, filtered it carefully for bias etc. And this thread is all about bias.

 

[troops]

Studies, surveys, oppinion polls we all know they are pointless, if you think wages have not been affected you really need to get out and about more and i dont mean the local wine bar.

 

[Hatter The Mad]

Can you point me to the data you are referring to. Sorry but I'm not going to sit there and read two reports which are both hundreds of pages long (but I think you knew that when you posted them).

They pretty much all have exec summaries.

And as I've said, I've done reports for local government and I know they pressure you to give them what they want to see.

And as I said before - I know that, which is why it is healthy for one to read widely, rather than from a narrow backer/funder/hypothesis/approach.

But then seeing as you don't believe in anecdotal evidence it nicely mean you don't have to believe what I'm saying either.

That's quite a presumption - I never said anything about not believing in anecdotal evidence. However, it is preposterous that people are preferring to rely on anecdotal accounts (literally 'mates' and worse stories from 'mates') without even bothering to open any wider studies in the area.

 

[Hatter The Mad]

Studies, surveys, oppinion polls we all know they are pointless, if you think wages have not been affected you really need to get out and about more and i dont mean the local wine bar.

I agree. But no one is saying that wages haven't been affected.

It's just that most studies have shown that they have been negligibly affected at the low-pay end (except for skilled work, where we've seen tangible wage inflation... a good thing... due to immigration). This is hard to swallow for the following reasons:

• It is counterintuitive to those with a slight grasp of an overly simplistic, narrowed model of some market economics principles (i.e. most people)
• It runs against popular sentiment
• In runs against popular sentiment especially in the demographic which *thinks* has been very negatively hit by immigration; the low-paid demographic - these people in turn make the most noise about it (and the loudest, most widely read newspapers target this demographic, and will want to gradually confirm their biases... but I won't get too Noam Chomsky on you)

However, many things are counterintuitive. The Earth being round is counterintuitive (compared to a typical, day to day observation of it).

 

[HaX]

You should have said: "[My very simplistic and ammeter understanding of] free market economics.", which is to say, not an understanding which you can validly nod to in order to back up your arguments.

I'm not prepared to resort to composing condescending or rude posts in response to you.

I am happy to admit I'm wrong if you can explain how diluting an already underutilised workforce can result in anything other than increased unemployment and decreased wages, in particular for lower level, entry level jobs.

The stage is yours and I'm interested to read your views....

 

[Hatter The Mad]

I'm not prepared to resort to composing condescending or rude posts in response to you.

I wasn't trying to be belittling. I also have an ameteur grasp and understanding of only some basic facets of it. So do most people... nothing to be ashamed of. (I take it all back if it turns out you have a Masters in Economics, or something ).

Your attitude and posting style only serves further to invalidate your argument.

I don't think it does, they're quite distinct. Also, I'm not really making arguments here - I'm not an expert. I'm just pretty discerning, skeptical, and have read. I recommend you do too..

 

[troops]

Something needs to be done, what that is i`m not quite sure but politicians get paid thousands to come up with something.
They think one answer is the bedroom tax and that will hit mainly low income families that are affected by lower wages.

At the end of the day this country is bursting at the seems and cant carry on like we have for the last 15yrs or so.

 

[anything I don't mind]

Doesn't it work both ways though? doesn't that mean i can go to romania or greece or germany and get a free house and free healthcare and free education for my children ?

 

[Jason2]

Doesn't it work both ways though? doesn't that mean i can go to romania or greece or germany and get a free house and free healthcare and free education for my children ?

Would you heck! Them countries have some balls.

 

[troops]

Try it an see how far you get, dont fancy your chances tho.

 

[regulus]

The idea that immigration has decimated wages is pure rubbish. The overall effect on wages has been near zero, with a small drop in low-end wages and a small rise in higher-end wages. Effects on prior waves of immigrants has been larger.

Here: have a read of a few papers

I KNOW it hasn't dropped in the construction industry. Or at the very least, not in my 8 years experience working in it. I know what we pay brickies, skilled and unskilled staff and that increased since 2004, never decreased.

 

[v0n]

Doesn't that mean i can go to romania or greece or germany and get a free house and free healthcare and free education for my children ?

Free health care, yes. Free basic education in all three, University courses in Romania are subject to tuition fees (same for Romanians as for EU members), grants/reduced fees for EU/EEA member state students based on the successful completion of a compulsory entrance exam available. Standard tuition fees in German Unis (~500 EUR per semester). Don't know about free house, but then again I'm permanent resident in UK since 1994 and at no point in the last 19 years I was eligible for anything free, let alone house, so I'm not sure such scheme even exists for EU members.

 

[estebanrey]

WT

 

[casaubond]

look how Romanians are responding to the government negative do not come to UK campaign
http://www.gandul.info/news/why-don...britanica-nu-veniti-in-anglia-update-10528548

 

[deuse]

Why?

To stop the EU people(and others) that have not payed a penny in to our tax system.

As others have said anyone coming here should be here paying tax for 10 years before they get anything including health.

 

[Blackjack Davy]

Free health care, yes. Free basic education in all three, University courses in Romania are subject to tuition fees (same for Romanians as for EU members), grants/reduced fees for EU/EEA member state students based on the successful completion of a compulsory entrance exam available. Standard tuition fees in German Unis (~500 EUR per semester). Don't know about free house, but then again I'm permanent resident in UK since 1994 and at no point in the last 19 years I was eligible for anything free, let alone house, so I'm not sure such scheme even exists for EU members.

Free housing, i.e. housing benefits etc, is entirely up to the discretion of the local council, ours are very generous apparently. Nothing to do with the EU.

It doesn't matter how much people argue this as long as we're part of the EU we can't limit EU immigration.

 

[Fubsy]

You do know that most people that come from within EU work hard and pay their taxes just as everyone else.

They also send a fair whack of their money out of the country too, which won't come back. I do this on a daily basis doing Moneygrams for Eastern Europeans.

 

[HaX]

I wasn't trying to be belittling. I also have an ameteur grasp and understanding of only some basic facets of it. So do most people... nothing to be ashamed of. (I take it all back if it turns out you have a Masters in Economics, or something ).

I don't think it does, they're quite distinct. Also, I'm not really making arguments here - I'm not an expert. I'm just pretty discerning, skeptical, and have read. I recommend you do too..

That maybe the case,

However, you haven't answered my question, which to repeat? ;

How will immigration result in anything other than increased unemployment and wage suppression in what is already a slackly utilised workforce?

While traditionally middle class professions may well be unaffected by Eastern European immigration. It is the lower end of the jobs market (eg unskilled jobs, traditionally performed by working class people) which will be, as these types of job are accessible with few or no qualifications.

Semi/unskilled workers have suffered greatly at the hands of off shoring and mechanisation, which has resulted in the major decline of UK based manufacturing . Is it right that we should overwhelm their dwindling employment markets with immigrants, especially at a time when benefits etc look likely to be cut?

Admittedly people in unskilled jobs could up-skill, however some people do not have the means or are not innately intelligent or capable of developing the skills required to progress to a better role.