Afghanistan - 20 years on

The_One said:
So us rendered all the big machinery unusuable did they?
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Despite the claims going around doesn't seem to be a hanging - no idea if they dropped him or anything - but doesn't seem to be a punishment/execution - in the longer video can see it is a rescue harness and they are waving casually to people below.

Though there are by all accounts plenty of executions, etc. going on including hangings - especially in the further out provinces.
 
Rroff said:
Despite the claims going around doesn't seem to be a hanging - no idea if they dropped him or anything - but doesn't seem to be a punishment/execution - in the longer video can see it is a rescue harness and they are waving casually to people below.
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I said this on another forum, it definitely looks more like Abdullah and the boys having a bit of a giggle with their new toy than an execution.
 
Rroff said:
Despite the claims going around doesn't seem to be a hanging - no idea if they dropped him or anything - but doesn't seem to be a punishment/execution - in the longer video can see it is a rescue harness and they are waving casually to people below.

Though there are by all accounts plenty of executions, etc. going on including hangings - especially in the further out provinces.
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that was fake news they were trying to hang a flag from a building using the guy on the winch
 
Interesting

https://twitter.com/marcthiessen/status/1432042278558834688

Obviously as pointed out controlling a city that size under those conditions would have been a huge undertaking but none the less it would look like far more options were potentially on the table than have been acknowledged publicly. The incompetence of the Biden administration quite frankly is staggering if there is any truths to that.

Another thing which I've not seen much mention of and plays into above is that a sizeable amount of Afghan special forces/NDS units, etc. were operational under US/UK command at the airport - a contingent of them were going undercover into the city to help 2 Para to get UK civilians back into the airport amongst other things. Which gives additional manpower for a more staged withdrawal if the Taliban were mostly onboard with the idea as that suggests.
 
Anyone see the CENCOM Commander, 4 Star USMC General McKenzie admit that they left hundreds of US citizens behind and are now negotiating with “the very pragmatic” Taliban to secure their release?

Anyone remember when failing to get 70 US citizens out of Iran after the last Shah was deposed cost Jimmy Carter his presidency and led to the formation of what would become “Delta Force” to ensure that this never happened again?
 
Terminal_Boy said:
Anyone see the CENCOM Commander, 4 Star USMC General McKenzie admit that they left hundreds of US citizens behind and are now negotiating with “the very pragmatic” Taliban to secure their release?
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Sounds the same as us https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58403050

We better hope the Taliban leadership are not only feeling pragmatically cooperative but they actually have enough control of the situation on the ground to enable it. Going to be some tense times with a lot of ass covering if this "plan" goes south.
 
Terminal_Boy said:
Good luck in getting any of the tribal warlords to agree on anything now their common enemies have left.
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Does look like things could fall apart - some of the Northern parts, aside from Panjshir, are seeing the Taliban starting to carry out ethic/tribal based atrocities and the resurgence of old tribal "strongmen", etc. who don't want to just take orders from the Taliban.
 
Rroff said:
Interesting

https://twitter.com/marcthiessen/status/1432042278558834688

Obviously as pointed out controlling a city that size under those conditions would have been a huge undertaking but none the less it would look like far more options were potentially on the table than have been acknowledged publicly. The incompetence of the Biden administration quite frankly is staggering if there is any truths to that.

Another thing which I've not seen much mention of and plays into above is that a sizeable amount of Afghan special forces/NDS units, etc. were operational under US/UK command at the airport - a contingent of them were going undercover into the city to help 2 Para to get UK civilians back into the airport amongst other things. Which gives additional manpower for a more staged withdrawal if the Taliban were mostly onboard with the idea as that suggests.
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How many troops would it take to secure Kabul? And to do it safely so the troops weren't sitting ducks for ISIS IED/suicide attacks. One ISIS bomb goes off killing troops and again he's hit with political attacks. I don't believe this is a black and white issue and there were choices that didn't carry significant risks. He gambled, we'll know in 2022 if he won or lost that bet.
 
To secure a city, The ratio of troops to civilians needs to be about 1 soldier for every 50 people.

So to secure a city of 5 million people? About 100,000 troops.

As opposed to 6,000 needed to secure the airport.

I'm sure Americans would have been really happy with that..... /s
 
Colonel_Klinck said:
How many troops would it take to secure Kabul? And to do it safely so the troops weren't sitting ducks for ISIS IED/suicide attacks. One ISIS bomb goes off killing troops and again he's hit with political attacks. I don't believe this is a black and white issue and there were choices that didn't carry significant risks. He gambled, we'll know in 2022 if he won or lost that bet.
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Not so much about the feasibility of securing a city but the approach the Biden administration was taking, essentially wanting to be able to wash their hands of the whole situation as quickly as possible, with as little getting involved as possible, no matter the consequences. With the result it is only testament to pretty much everyone else involved including US, UK and other militaries from around the world, many many organisations and people who stepped up many of whom will likely see little recognition, and perversely even the Taliban that it didn't go catastrophically side ways.

For instance those from NDS 01 unit who supported 2 Para to get UK citizens out by going undercover into the city despite they would have been instantly executed by the Taliban if recognised.
 
Rroff said:
Interesting

https://twitter.com/marcthiessen/status/1432042278558834688

Obviously as pointed out controlling a city that size under those conditions would have been a huge undertaking but none the less it would look like far more options were potentially on the table than have been acknowledged publicly. The incompetence of the Biden administration quite frankly is staggering if there is any truths to that.

Another thing which I've not seen much mention of and plays into above is that a sizeable amount of Afghan special forces/NDS units, etc. were operational under US/UK command at the airport - a contingent of them were going undercover into the city to help 2 Para to get UK civilians back into the airport amongst other things. Which gives additional manpower for a more staged withdrawal if the Taliban were mostly onboard with the idea as that suggests.
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Agree.

The taliban said they would stay out of the city and both airports if biden wanted them to.
But biden said NO. He could have rescued everyone with out any suicide bomber.
He needs to pay for his mistakes.

Biden's speech last night was just stupid.

First he blames trump for everything. Then after repeating himself he goes on to say that he is the hero.
Even the Gold Star families hate him now.
 
VincentHanna said:
To secure a city, The ratio of troops to civilians needs to be about 1 soldier for every 50 people.

So to secure a city of 5 million people? About 100,000 troops.

As opposed to 6,000 needed to secure the airport.

I'm sure Americans would have been really happy with that..... /s
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There is only 75,000 taliban.
And yet they took control of a country.

And the taliban said they would not enter the city or let any other group in while the withdraw was going on.
 
A lot is going to depend on the disposition of the population of the city, what kind of force you might be facing off against, etc. anyhow there is no one correct answer really. They most likely in those circumstances wouldn't be trying to defend the city against an attacking force or trying to quell an uprising within the city. It isn't really the more pertinent point anyhow it is more the way the US administration seems to have been approaching the whole situation of Afghanistan.
 
Colonel_Klinck said:
How many troops would it take to secure Kabul? And to do it safely so the troops weren't sitting ducks for ISIS IED/suicide attacks. One ISIS bomb goes off killing troops and again he's hit with political attacks. I don't believe this is a black and white issue and there were choices that didn't carry significant risks. He gambled, we'll know in 2022 if he won or lost that bet.
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Nobody knows as no-one’s managed to secure Kabul before. Even the Green Zone was subject to numerous VBIED/SVIED attacks when it was rammed full of US troops and PMC units.
 
You can’t really secure a city using troops when you are not defending against an army. Insurgents who blend in with its citizens are invisible and can move freely within the population coming in and out while utilising IEDs as their weapons. It’s not viable to check everyone and those checking become targets.
 
Terminal_Boy said:
Anyone see the CENCOM Commander, 4 Star USMC General McKenzie admit that they left hundreds of US citizens behind and are now negotiating with “the very pragmatic” Taliban to secure their release?

Anyone remember when failing to get 70 US citizens out of Iran after the last Shah was deposed cost Jimmy Carter his presidency and led to the formation of what would become “Delta Force” to ensure that this never happened again?
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I think that the Taliban taking over was a far more predictable event than the Shah being deposed, so this is partly the fault of those that remained in the country for months knowing full well that the previous administration wanted out by May.

Though to be fair to those people if the Pentagon could lie for 20 years about the capabilities of the Afghan military to save their own skin... I could conceivably give them the benefit of the doubt, but the signs were still pretty obvious to me going by the criticism that was documented mid-occupation.
 
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StriderX said:
I think that the Taliban taking over was a far more predictable event than the Shah being deposed, so this is partly the fault of those that remained in the country for months knowing full well that the previous administration wanted out by May.

Though to be fair to those people if the Pentagon could lie for 20 years about the capabilities of the Afghan military to save their own skin... I could conceivably give them the benefit of the doubt, but the signs were still pretty obvious to me going by the criticism that was documented mid-occupation.
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Thing is not everyone has an interest in military or even political matters - it was increasingly apparent to anyone with an interest in that kind of stuff but many every day people will have been influenced by the statements by Biden, Blinken and Ghani that everything was fine, even the news was mixed with the Taliban making big advances on the one hand but a lot of success by the more "elite" Afghan forces against them as well (truth was in many cases as they didn't have the situation contained the Taliban could just reposition themselves in a fluid manner rather than actually retreat or be beaten).
 
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