Caporegime
- Joined
- 9 Mar 2006
- Posts
- 58,058
- Location
- Surrey
You don't think Fergie would have got top 4? That is a brave statement.
you dont want to do a spurs and buy a whole new team! that would make things worse!
You don't think Fergie would have got top 4? That is a brave statement.
I do though think he would have kicked a lot more up the backside than Moyes has or any other manager that could have come in.
No I don't, purely because although the drop in ability of the players you have hasn't been as huge as is made out, the other teams Liverpool, Chelsea, City and Arsenal have performed much better than last year.
I don't know who from the top 4 that squad would have been good enough to displace considering the form of Sturridge and Suarez. Maybe Arsenal depending on how the rest of their season goes with Ozil on extended winter break.
What can a new manager threaten players with (admittedly this doesnt apply to much younger players, but a lot of the agro is seemingly coming from the older players)
I'm fairly certain that Fergie would have had us keeping pace with both Arsenal and Liverpool. While both have improved it's only looking so drastic because Moyes has dropped us so significantly.
We finished 16 points ahead of Arsenal and 28 points ahead of Liverpool last season...
I think you're forgetting teams beat themselves before playing United and showed too much respect when Ferguson was there.
Any team that went at them usually had a good chance of winning in recent years, as they have done under Moyes, if Ferguson was there they'd all sit back and hope not to be beat still.
You can't say that with certainty.
Edited your earlier post slightly, to make it fit your last post.
Or maybe its just the players attitudes that have changed. Of course they react different to someome with less success as them /their previous boss (and the guy who hired them in the first place).
Remember even SAF has been saying over the last few years that its very hard to treat players the same as he did Beckham /Neville/ Scholes in the early years. Its probably doubly as difficult for Moyes as a lot of the players know they are leaving and they cant really be penalised effectively (will £100k mean anything if you have £5m/£10m/£20m in the bank?)
Taking away a player's week's salery used to be felt and was a good tool to get people in line, its far less effective nowadays. If they are leaving , will they care if they dont play for the rest of the season? I doubt it
What can a new manager threaten players with (admittedly this doesnt apply to much younger players, but a lot of the agro is seemingly coming from the older players)
But fairly certain still means you think there's a good degree of certainty there, when there just isn't. You say Manyoo were x points ahead of Liverpool last year, for example, but that was when Liverpool had a bad year, whilst RVP had an amazing year. The reversal of fortunes could be attributed to Liverpool being better/SaSaS being even better this year/etc, whilst RVP isn't having another amazing year. There are all sorts of variables which you can also mention... but instead you're basically just saying it's the Fergie factor and ignoring the myriad of other variables - it's bizarre.
To paraphrase a great of our time - there are known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns... all of which have an impact on the relative performances from last year to this one... but you're just focussing on a single one variable. It's plain stupid. All those factors means you can't make a 'fairly certain' guess at how Fergie would have done. It's not a static system where the only change was Fergie/Moyes
.
Despite Donald rumsfelt it is known that Moyes is and always was the wrong man for the job.
Except, as I said, RVP had a spectacular year last season, then this year hasn't been singlehandedly winning games with a moment of genius. Whilst Liverpool have improved dramatically, relatively speaking. Plus all the other changes in relative strength of teams in the league. Etc.
The fact Fergie didn't miss out on the top four for however long relies on a historical perspective which just assumes everything will stay pretty much static, which obviously doesn't fit well with the realities of football/many sports. Again, I refer you to the drop in Manyoo's strike-force's performance and the improvement with Liverpool.
Eg. In terms of Premier League stats, compared to this time last year,
Liverpool are 17 points better off.
Manyoo have conceded the same number of goals (31), but have scored 21 fewer goals.
Stats from www.premierleague.com
RvP didn't really have a spectacular year all last year, what about the huge patch in the middle when he was on a terrible run of form? And again there's nothing to suggest that he couldn't be doing better this year under a competent manager. I doubt Fergie would have wasted the money we did on Fellaini and would probably have strengthened elsewhere.
You say I'm assuming everything will remain static. The thing is you're assuming everything will change based on nothing more than guesswork.