Poll: General election voting round 4

Voting intentions in the General Election?

  • Alliance Party of Northern Ireland

    Votes: 2 0.3%

  • Conservative

    Votes: 276 39.5%

  • Democratic Unionist Party

    Votes: 1 0.1%

  • Green Party

    Votes: 41 5.9%

  • Labour

    Votes: 125 17.9%

  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 50 7.2%

  • Not voting/will spoil ballot

    Votes: 33 4.7%

  • Other party (not named)

    Votes: 5 0.7%

  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 3 0.4%

  • Respect Party

    Votes: 2 0.3%

  • Scottish National Party

    Votes: 31 4.4%

  • Social Democratic and Labour Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 1 0.1%

  • UKIP

    Votes: 128 18.3%
  • Total voters
    698
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
Ok, this is what i have decided, so far we have gobbo and MrMoonX in on this. I have also changed my mind a bit. If UKIP get 0-5, i will give £100 to charity, if they get 6 or more gobbo and MrMoonX are giving £50 each.

I would like to see DP and as many other to join us on this.

What do you lot say?
 
Last edited:
Skidder said:
I'll play as long as you are paying out £100 for each person betting you. Not just once
Click to expand...

wow, you really are a bit odd aren't you? I'm not going to pay £100 each, i know you're being cute but i thought i'd correct you before you confuse others :rolleyes:

You really in on this or not?
 
D.P. said:
Britain has FPTP system now!bThe expected SNP result is due to the FPTP system.
Click to expand...

No it's because there are 50 constituencies in Scotland, it doesn't matter whether you count the votes in each them via FTPT or AV, it still means a smaller group of people can mathematically have more say than a larger group of people in the same physical area elsewhere in the UK.
 
robgmun said:
wow, you really are a bit odd aren't you? I'm not going to pay £100 each, i know you're being cute but i thought i'd correct you before you confuse others :rolleyes:

You really in on this or not?
Click to expand...

There's no point at all betting if you are not risking anything further by me or anyone else participating.
 
estebanrey said:
No it's because there are 50 constituencies in Scotland, it doesn't matter whether you count the votes in each them via FTPT or AV, it still means a smaller group of people can mathematically have more say than a larger group of people in the same physical area elsewhere in the UK.
Click to expand...

Well people voted no on AV, so clearly people love FPTP :cool:
 
Skidder said:
There's no point at all betting if you are not risking anything further by me or anyone else participating.
Click to expand...

I'm risking £100, i think that's as far as i can go, i even upped the odds against me

DP????

I see you're still online! Your little light is still on
 
Last edited:
robgmun said:
No problemo, Still waiting on DP to see if he's game, he's sooooo sure of his stats, i want to see him put money where his mouth is.

DP i'm upping it £100, if UKIP get less than 5 seats i will give £100 to Christian Aid, you only need to bet £50. What do you say??
Click to expand...

I'll come back later with some kind of charity bet, mostly likely the 50 if UKIP get over 6 seats.
 
estebanrey said:
No it's because there are 50 constituencies in Scotland, it doesn't matter whether you count the votes in each them via FTPT or AV, it still means a smaller group of people can mathematically have more say than a larger group of people in the same physical area elsewhere in the UK.
Click to expand...

The same would be true of other systems such as Av through, so that is irrelevant.
 
Skidder said:
There's no point at all betting if you are not risking anything further by me or anyone else participating.
Click to expand...

And that is why I was quiet, as it stand rob is making 1 bet while several other people are making bets against him so the expectancy is way off now.

Pleas I really don't want to make a bet on a rigid threshold but propose a range of statistical outcomes, e.g. reducing odds as the number of UKIP seats go up. When there is a statistically significant difference to my proposed distribution then i would happily pay out, but this looks too complex to set u and get people to agree to.

My point is the difference between UKIP getting 4 or 5 seats is small, the difference between 4 and 10 is very high. Nigel Farage last year said he would win 100 seats, I will be decent money he doesn't get this. recently the UKIP have said they would focus on around 20 seats and hope to win 1 dozen, even this is extremely remote. 4,5 or 6 seats? they are all possible but something in the 3 to 4 range seems the most likely.

I would guess UKIP wining 8 seats is about as likely as them winning 0 seats.
 
D.P. said:
And that is why I was quiet, as it stand rob is making 1 bet while several other people are making bets against him so the expectancy is way off now.

Pleas I really don't want to make a bet on a rigid threshold but propose a range of statistical outcomes, e.g. reducing odds as the number of UKIP seats go up. When there is a statistically significant difference to my proposed distribution then i would happily pay out, but this looks too complex to set u and get people to agree to.

My point is the difference between UKIP getting 4 or 5 seats is small, the difference between 4 and 10 is very high. Nigel Farage last year said he would win 100 seats, I will be decent money he doesn't get this. recently the UKIP have said they would focus on around 20 seats and hope to win 1 dozen, even this is extremely remote. 4,5 or 6 seats? they are all possible but something in the 3 to 4 range seems the most likely.

I would guess UKIP wining 8 seats is about as likely as them winning 0 seats.
Click to expand...

The whole bet thing is a bit of fun and good for charity. And this is a simple bet and whatever happens charity is the winner.

I'm happy you decided to put down 50.
 
I can tell you one thing and that's UKIP have at least 1 seat 99.999% guaranteed in my area. That's because of their Rep, Douglas Carswell who for someone reason everyone loves and will vote purely for him. He left the conservatives sometime last year and joined UKIP.

So odds of 0 seats = non existent

and the amount of UKIP propaganda I see in peoples windows and outside their houses is unreal. Ive never seen any party have that much propaganda anywhere.
 
Snookums said:
So odds of 0 seats = non existent
Click to expand...

The forecasts say it's 90% likely that they'll get 0-4 seats. If there were a 0% chance of getting 0 seats then they'd say 1-4, so I suppose that means there's at least a 5% chance of them getting 0 seats, and maybe higher. (Edit: not sure of the stats here actually - all we can say is it's non-zero, but could be very small probability I suppose.)
 
Last edited:
Snookums said:
I can tell you one thing and that's UKIP have at least 1 seat 99.999% guaranteed in my area. That's because of their Rep, Douglas Carswell who for someone reason everyone loves and will vote purely for him. He left the conservatives sometime last year and joined UKIP.

So odds of 0 seats = non existent

and the amount of UKIP propaganda I see in peoples windows and outside their houses is unreal. Ive never seen any party have that much propaganda anywhere.
Click to expand...


Clacton is the only seat with a reliable UKIP majority so you may be right on that.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom