North Korea

dowie said:
Iraq had air defence too... didn't stop the USAF...

And anyway it isn't going to do much to prevent the use of MLRS either! I don't think they're likely to try any human wave type stuff these days, was only really in the beginning last time - and even back then US/UK artillery was a big problem for them - these days an artillery observer can take out an entire 1km grid square in one go if needed.
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I'd assume in that situation he is talking about that NK's air defences (which are somewhat ageing) would be supplemented with more upto date Chinese systems - not sure how effective they are against the US's current aircraft - I know there has been a bit of back and forth with Russia, with Russia being more advanced in aircraft and anti-air tech where China has traditionally struggled and Russia in need of upgrades for their navy especially engine stuff.

The problem with NK is that the terrain naturally helps the defender - it is much harder to use artillery or airstrikes to support a rolling offensive and easier for them to hide their AA defences away so they can't so easily be engaged from range.
 
Doesn't really matter, the US would still achieve air superiority whether the North manage to get additional equipment in time or not. Any full on conventional war against the US wouldn't last long at all.
 
With NK on the defensive it would likely last quite a long time (it is estimated their reserve stockpiles of fuel and ammo would last 4-6 months of war and are mostly buried too deep to easily destroy) and have quite a high body count for the US. NK has spent around 50 years digging in and from all accounts brainwashing their population to that end - with terrain that favours defensive and guerilla warfare more than most parts of the planet.
 
Steeps said:
My quote was about the US, not NK ;)
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God damn, my reading skills are awful :D

Rroff said:
I'd assume in that situation he is talking about that NK's air defences (which are somewhat ageing) would be supplemented with more upto date Chinese systems - not sure how effective they are against the US's current aircraft - I know there has been a bit of back and forth with Russia, with Russia being more advanced in aircraft and anti-air tech where China has traditionally struggled and Russia in need of upgrades for their navy especially engine stuff.

The problem with NK is that the terrain naturally helps the defender - it is much harder to use artillery or airstrikes to support a rolling offensive and easier for them to hide their AA defences away so they can't so easily be engaged from range.
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That and China has upgraded a lot of its fleet recently. acclaiming to be equivalent to a lot of Americans fast jets. I have no idea if this would cause poor relations with China, but if it did and they helped NK it isn't as simple as going in and wiping out. It'll be all out warfare for years.
 
North Korea is an irrelevance. It cannot even feed its own people. NK is being used by the Americans and their puppets as a proxy for America's more aggressive stance towards China.
 
Rroff said:
With NK on the defensive it would likely last quite a long time (it is estimated their reserve stockpiles of fuel and ammo would last 4-6 months of war and are mostly buried too deep to easily destroy) and have quite a high body count for the US. NK has spent around 50 years digging in and from all accounts brainwashing their population to that end - with terrain that favours defensive and guerilla warfare more than most parts of the planet.
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Where did you read that they had 4-6 months of supplies of fuel?

From all the sources I have read and I believed the common view was that they don't even have enough for a week, possible one whole month tops.

The fuel economy is so bad that I have read is that their jet pilots are barred from flying. An typical westen pilot can have up too 240+ hours per year while a North Korean pilot might only have 15 - 25 hours per year, their elite pilots are getting more but still way under 100 hours.

Ammo supplies, I agree they will have lots of and are buried but I think our bunker busters will still reach them if they can find them and if they can't, you just need to find the entrances and just destroy them so they can't reach the ammo.

That said, finding them will be the hardest part but after 50+ years I would think the country must had been mapped out by now with high detailed photos.
 
Hades said:
I can't see the US trying anything. They tried during the Korean war and got held to a stalemate by Chinese backed North Korea.

China won't invade because it's a fellow communist country and offers a buffer between US backed South Korea. The US won't invade because China would defend North Korea.
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I don't believe for a second that China would do anything military wise if North Korea was invaded. Their economy is too intertwined with the rest of the world, they own so much in the west that if war happened, it all be seized, they are currently the worlds largest exporter (a other source said they are 3rd?) so, going to war with the US and her allies, would harm them pretty badly. Not to say, the west would be badly hurt too, but we be in a better position since we be still trading with the rest of the world.

That said military wise, they would be beaten. The US carrier groups would position themselves around that nation from both sides and block all their ports with no fly zones setup.

The carrier groups at the border between China and North Korea would launch waves of air attacks that would gain air superiority and anything trying to cross that area would be turned into scrap metal.

Threats of nuclear weapons is a very big concern, but I don't think they would use them, since the US would use them in kind and that I think no land invasion of the mainland China would happen, it be a limited war.

That said, any military action would be centered around the border of North Korea and China, I think both sides would recognise that and keep it as an limited war there.

Also as someone said, China has started to get pretty upset with the NK.

But I think everyone can agree, that getting China on our side would be for the best or even get them to use their military instead, luxury post-war deals would gladly sweeten the deal I think.

Since rebuilding North Korea to a modern level like South Korea would benefit everyone, jobs would be created everywhere.

More pressure on China to change things in NK to allow military intervention, joint or solo effort would be for the best.

Making a other mess in Iraq needs to be avoided, but I think once the people are given electrically that works none stop, enough food to eat and basic every day services that you and me take for granted, freedom to move around and go where they want, they will come around and with how fast China can build things it should be good.

That said, it could all turn to **** but am a optimist. :D
 
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IronWarrior said:
Where did you read that they had 4-6 months of supplies of fuel?

From all the sources I have read and I believed the common view was that they don't even have enough for a week, possible one whole month tops.

The fuel economy is so bad that I have read is that their jet pilots are barred from flying. An typical westen pilot can have up too 240+ hours per year while a North Korean pilot might only have 15 - 25 hours per year, their elite pilots are getting more but still way under 100 hours.

Ammo supplies, I agree they will have lots of and are buried but I think our bunker busters will still reach them if they can find them and if they can't, you just need to find the entrances and just destroy them so they can't reach the ammo.

That said, finding them will be the hardest part but after 50+ years I would think the country must had been mapped out by now with high detailed photos.
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That is because 90% of their fuel supply go into reserve stock with the massive paranoia of invasion (which could raise questions about the quality of stuff long term stored but that is another story) - most of the sources on it I believe are focused on them going on the offensive? where they would struggle to supply and maintain the fuel and logistics in moving it for more than a few weeks. Hence one of the reasons (aside from getting slaughtered in open country) they are highly unlikely to go on the offensive.

From all accounts since the 70s they've spent significant time digging so that the mines, etc. they are using for storage have several entrances spread out - though I suspect by now the US indeed has pretty detailed intel and appropriate strike plans. Even so they aren't going to roll over them as quickly and easily as some suggest.
 
dowie said:
A conventional war would be a rather different situation these days, those Chinese hoards they had to deal with back then could be wiped out with the airpower and artillery resources we have now.
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That worked well in Vietnam...
 
IronWarrior said:
I don't believe for a second that China would do anything military wise if North Korea was invaded. Their economy is too intertwined with the rest of the world, they own so much in the west that if war happened, it all be seized, they are currently the worlds largest exporter (a other source said they are 3rd?) so, going to war with the US and her allies, would harm them pretty badly. Not to say, the west would be badly hurt too, but we be in a better position since we be still trading with the rest of the world.

That said military wise, they would be beaten. The US carrier groups would position themselves around that nation from both sides and block all their ports with no fly zones setup.

The carrier groups at the border between China and North Korea would launch waves of air attacks that would gain air superiority and anything trying to cross that area would be turned into scrap metal.

Threats of nuclear weapons is a very big concern, but I don't think they would use them, since the US would use them in kind and that I think no land invasion of the mainland China would happen, it be a limited war.

That said, any military action would be centered around the border of North Korea and China, I think both sides would recognise that and keep it as an limited war there.

Also as someone said, China has started to get pretty upset with the NK.

But I think everyone can agree, that getting China on our side would be for the best or even get them to use their military instead, luxury post-war deals would gladly sweeten the deal I think.

Since rebuilding North Korea to a modern level like South Korea would benefit everyone, jobs would be created everywhere.

More pressure on China to change things in NK to allow military intervention, joint or solo effort would be for the best.

Making a other mess in Iraq needs to be avoided, but I think once the people are given electrically that works none stop, enough food to eat and basic every day services that you and me take for granted, freedom to move around and go where they want, they will come around and with how fast China can build things it should be good.

That said, it could all turn to **** but am a optimist. :D
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And the war will be over by Christmas. ;)
 
IronWarrior said:
More pressure on China to change things in NK to allow military intervention, joint or solo effort would be for the best.
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China seems to be hot at the moment about having control/say of what they do in their region of the world - I think they will make a point of doing anything about NK at a time and to their convenience rather than what suits the rest of the world.
 
I think the key in settling the conflict between NK and SK lie in their more powerful backers.

I would say that NK does not look to do anything but unify Korea. The regime know that they cannot afford a war without support from China in the form of modern arms and food. China and NK relationship was born from the days of their revolution and their bonds further strengthened when they were unified against the US during the Korean war, where they suffered many losses.

What is funny is that the US and NK have not really changed as much since then politically, where as China has seen itself boom in economy and is just a shadow of the original communist days. Its relations with the west are not just better but its heavy growth is dependant on keeping a stable relationship around the globe. NK realises that their bonds with China are weakening because of this and is powerless to actively do anything about it due to their ever increasing debt to them, as well as dependence when it comes to trade, research and military presence. NK have had border disputes with China before but with no means to argue against China, disputes are nothing more than official complaints.


I think in a decade or two, China wont be so inclined to help NK, as long as the US stops throwing its weight around to look big. The US is in the region to ruffle the Chinese feathers but there is little need now compared to the days of a communist east. The relationships between the west and China could improve and it wont be long until the only reason why China would want to help NK stay as NK is to avoid a huge influx of refugees when the regime crumbles.

I think that if SK and NK went to war, the best outcome would be to let SK beat the regime on their own with their modern military equipment and heavy air and sea advantage in a decade or two. Though Seoul will likely fall to ruin in the beginning of the conflict, without external involvement, NK has little chance of winning. In a few decades the relationships of China and the US would have hopefully improved and the military arsenal NK has build decades ago will continue to fall to ruin. Their lack of advancement and inability to trade will bottleneck their ability to re-arm themselves as their fighters and tanks continue to degrade.
 
China isn't going to allow itself to be dragged into a war it doesn't want because of some backwater village called NK. IF China wants a war then it might allow NK to escalate things in some sort of proxy war setup but at this point in time there isn't any reason for it so it'll quietly make its views clear to NK.

Should that day some though when China want to secure the surrounding sea's then it could all kick off with Taiwan and NK opening the show
 
jimjamuk said:
China isn't going to allow itself to be dragged into a war it doesn't want because of some backwater village called NK. IF China wants a war then it might allow NK to escalate things in some sort of proxy war setup but at this point in time there isn't any reason for it so it'll quietly make its views clear to NK.
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Precisely.

A war for China is the last thing it wants, they are enjoying the best economic power boom in history and keeping relationships with the world sweet is what will allow it to continue to do so. It is a completely different country to the China that allied itself with NK and has had its own share of friction with NK when it came down to border disputes.

Kim Jong-Un and his generals knows this better than anyone else.
 
china would not bother fighting..they would just come to some deal with the US and take over the governing of the country, replacing a thorny problem with a govt they can control
 
ubersonic said:
You do realise that Kim (like Assad) grew up in the west then inherited his country and so is a lot more rational/worldy than your average dictator.
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Yes I do, but that doesn't mean his mind hasn't been corrupted by having thousands of yes-men around him all the time agreeing with everything he says. It doesn't take long when you live in a hall of mirrors.
There was a very good psychological analysis of losing US presidential candidates (that I can't seem to find now) which detailed how they are nearly always utterly shocked when they lose, even if the polls have been against them all the way though. It's because they have a constant stream of people saying "Yes, you WILL win" around them at all times.
 
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