Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (May Poll)

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

  • Remain a member of the European Union

    Votes: 522 41.6%
  • Leave the European Union

    Votes: 733 58.4%

  • Total voters
    1,255
  • Poll closed .
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Soldato
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Presumably those would include the same independent bodies many of which receive millions, or tens of millions, of Euros funding from the EU?

The same independent bodies, by the way, all of which use similar economic models all of which are modelling exit ramifications based on assumptions of effects, where the assumptions have absolutely no basis in historical data because a situation like an economy the size of the UK has never left a political union like the EU.

Or would it be the same independent body chaired by a former French finance minister? And would that be the same France that, if we leave, is going to find itself facing a substantial increase in contributions, or an EU having to make substantial cuts in it's spending, if it loses the UK net contributions?

And for that matter, the same former French finance minister that is and long has been part of the same establishment elite that shoved the EU on us in the first place without bothering go ask? The same elite that's so fond of sneering down their noses at rising levels of discontent, for various reasons, among a lot of EU countries and dismissing it as fascistic right wing, when in reality the only way it gets to be anything like large enough to be more than a noisy protest movement is if very large numbers of the population are prepared to vote for it, even if some of it is hard right. And some far left. Large enough, by the way, to be putting the next French Presidential election in doubt.

The same establishment elite that ignored the wishes of the people, in elections, and imposed a technocrat to run Italy, and shoved a bailout down the Greek's throats despite an anti-austerity party winning the election.

Or the same actual government that one month is telling us we can cope quite admirably, thank you very much, if we leave, which the PM will support unless he gets substantive reform, and then after getting a handful of minor amendments the legal enforceability of most of which is highly questionable at a minimum, is telling us it'll be economic catastrophe, or military Armageddon, or both, if we leave the protective arms of the EU. On which mutually exclusive occasion was our esteemed PM talking through his anatomical exhaust pipe?

Many of these supposedly authoritative experts, by the way, are the same ones that made similarly dire predictions of economic doom if the UK didn't join the Euro, and I can't think of any serious economists, or not more than a politically dogmatic indivual or two, prepared to seriously argue now that it would have been good for the UK if we had.

None of the economic bodies, politicians or individuals know what would happen post-Brexit, and that includes both sides. But few if any of those predicting economic disaster if we leave bother to tell us what their models predict if we stay in, with 26 out of 28 current EU members either in or treaty-obliged to join the Euro, when those 26 start ramming through economic measures designed to suit the 26, regardless of their effect on the UK.

They all imply, by omission at least, that the outlook is disaster if we leave, when that's nothing more than a modelling prediction based on assumptions they won't tell us, but the economic status quo if we don't, when the reality is that the EU is evolving, politically as well as economically, and the economic status quo is not an option.

Leaving has risks and, short-term at least, probably costs. But so does staying in, and those trying to bowbeat, scare and intimidate voters into staying never put any figures on the impact of EU evolution. If they're so damned prescient about the impact of one unknown and untested scenario, namely leaving, then they ought to be able to be prescient about the other, staying in an evolving EU.

Oh, and listen carefully to what these economic Cassandras say, even the likes of Carney, and it's "could" this, and "might" that. Well, the Euro "could" collapse, EU banks "could" implode, or a number of EU states "might" vote in anti-EU governments and the whole edifice shatters. Or we "could" get wiped out by a giant meteor impact, we "might" be saved from such by a benevolent, passing alien race, or the whole thing "might" be rendered academic by the 2nd Coming of Christ and a biblical "Revelation".

Amen brother.
 

Gux

Gux

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How the pro EU crowd find the time to post is unbelievable, its full on...........

hz1mAql.gif.png

You lot are afraid of something that's for sure. :D

I find it the other way around. Let's face the music, most EU polls, show that people with intelligence that have done more than just the basic secondary schools are voting to stay in.

Dumb people with only GCSE's are voting out. These same dumb people are afraid of immigration and "people taking our jobs". Clearly these dumb people do not have the skills and inteligence to compete with migrants that can barely speak english :D

If anyone is afraid of anything is competition from migrants and from the EU. Best case to leave, "so they stop taking our jobs". And that's the argument from dumb people and the leave campaign

:D
 
Soldato
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A nice little visualiser. I do wonder what the long term consequences of the Tory leadership being so out of sync with the party base will be.

We have a rather odd alignment of broad churches at the moment. Tories who hate their leadership. Labourites who love theirs, split MPs. Lib Dems unsure of where they are heading. Nationalists in Scotland not wholly supported on their key-plank policy still, who are struggling to be anything but New Labour. Interestingly, UKIP autocratically dominated by one large and smiling ego, who is also de-syncing from his only MP and party officials wishing to take the party elsewhere. Greens? All heart, one MP and without a funded plan, aiming at the protest vote.

Just need PR and a major shock, like the upcoming ref, to really set the cat among the pigeons, to borrow Kipper language. So, possibly BoJo or Cameron? Then a mild nobody from the Brexit range. And then they'll be hoping for another Dave/Osborne successor; if there's one thing Tories don't like, it's losing grip on power. :p Such power calculus has always checked their internal splits. Though if Osborne can pull off a Lazarus, he will rapidly advance on both castrating the grassroots/local parties and centralising power under Whitehall. Tactically, only the Ukip factor has stayed the sword for now, but after the referendum it will be gone from consideration either way.

Without PR, we are still heading for a major drama, particularly if Corbyn cannot deliver past 2020; with Tories in power and without a decent opposition, they will continue to frustrate themselves, oscillating between the radical and the establishment candidate, as they did before Cams. A fun time to be a betting man, though.

The establishment is denying us our Flexcit.

What's next -- Lamarckian evolution making a glorious comeback because it got funded on Kickstarter, and is rather contrarian to the Darwinian consensus?

Let’s take another ‘paid-up’ forecast and test it right now: Met Office tells me that based on their best data, the minimum historical temperature for May round these parts is 7C and the maximum is 19C, +/- 2C, with the minimum expectation of accuracy of 86.5%. So call me an optimistic soul, I take the average of the two – a total fudge – and expect the temperature outside to be 13C – whoopty doo, and so it is! Would I have made a bet outside those margins, based on what some crank told me, and expect to win? No. Would I bet in the same range for 1 years, 5 years, 10 years from now for the same day? Yes. Would I believe it to be between 0.77C- 2C higher on average in the coming century? Yes. But doesn’t economics have more art to it than quantitative predictive power, I hear you ask? To an extent, depending on the model used, data and assumptions taken. Nonetheless, if the prediction is between very bad and very very bad for Brexit, I’ll err in favour of plain bad, and I won’t be far off. But, but -- WE HAVE THE LIVERPOOL MODEL; yes, another ‘perfect’ mirage: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9394016c-0d43-11e6-b41f-0beb7e589515.html; where can I board this perfect world?

Now, even if I were to indulge your tinfoil distraction, which still fights for dear life against every select committee hearing, projection and independent advice from bodies to date, who, if anything, have a history of being overly optimistic; none of it disputes the fact that it won't be the Brexiteers setting the global conditions of our departure ("the agenda" :p if you will), perception of said departure and market reaction to it. All three are largely independent of what the British public wants, can vote for, or can exercise any reasonable control over upon Brexit.

Indeed, your buzz re Carney is fascinating, since: a) he'll still be the governor of the BoE b) BoE's monetary policy committee will be implementing their suggestions, and I trust them more than any Brexiteer on what follows after the referendum c) they are preparing for a Broken Brexit d) no amount of wailing, ranting and waving of some libertarian/far-right junk will stop them.

If you persist in your "no change really, only roses and perfect democracy" assumption, I wish you the very best of luck should you come to test this get-rich-quick scheme in practice. On the balance of probabilities, as given, my bet's on Bremain's forecast. We can argue about error margins and gaze into your super-state future all day, but Boris will have to turn into a fat lady that sings, before I can, in good faith, advise anyone to vote to make themselves poorer, less secure and less empowered in Europe and at home. And since even Brexit economists believe we can unilaterally walk away at any time anyway, your crying of “wolf!” just doesn’t impress.

What role can Brexit Britain play in the wider world is yet to be shown. But have fun speculating on YouTube, without power or data. :)
 
Soldato
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I find it the other way around. Let's face the music, most EU polls, show that people with intelligence that have done more than just the basic secondary schools are voting to stay in.

Dumb people with only GCSE's are voting out. These same dumb people are afraid of immigration and "people taking our jobs". Clearly these dumb people do not have the skills and inteligence to compete with migrants that can barely speak english :D

If anyone is afraid of anything is competition from migrants and from the EU. Best case to leave, "so they stop taking our jobs". And that's the argument from dumb people and the leave campaign

:D

So because some people including me don't have a GCSE in anything are voting out we are retards.

I have an IQ of about 130, I know stuff I don't even know how I know. But because I have not obtained an establishment certificate of education I am certified dumb.

Is that not retarded to think people who are uneducated are not aware of what is going on in the world.

Education is not fact, uneducated is also not fact. Your point is?????? :rolleyes:
 
Soldato
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Oh dear...
http://news.sky.com/story/1696188/we-believe-boris-eu-poll-blow-for-pm

ComRes asked 2,043 people who was "more likely to tell the truth about the EU" in a poll for The Independent and the Sunday Mirror.

Some 45% opted for Leave campaigner Mr Johnson, while 21% said David Cameron, who wants the UK to remain in the 28-nation bloc.

By a smaller margin, 39% to 24%, campaigners for Leave generally were considered "more likely to tell the truth" than campaigners for Remain.
:p
 
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Oh dear...
http://news.sky.com/story/1696188/we-believe-boris-eu-poll-blow-for-pm

ComRes asked 2,043 people who was "more likely to tell the truth about the EU" in a poll for The Independent and the Sunday Mirror.

Some 45% opted for Leave campaigner Mr Johnson, while 21% said David Cameron, who wants the UK to remain in the 28-nation bloc.

By a smaller margin, 39% to 24%, campaigners for Leave generally were considered "more likely to tell the truth" than campaigners for Remain.
:p

And of course all these people who like Boris and tell the truth are according to certain posters on here retards and racists.
 
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"If you don't give me what I want I'll take my ball and go home" is not the strong negotiating position you seem to imagine. Doubly so when you can't even promise you'll stay even when you get what you want.
As much as you pray and dream that it'll be a good argument one day to call it unfashionable to play the take the ball home game then why was it that it got juncker and the others to agree they'd try and compromise on several issues and do there best to get it done? You've even said yourself a few times (if I remember right, long threads) that Cameron did a poor job and sprung it on them last minute, so presuming we had an even better referendum with more alliance building then surely that was going to get quite a bit of results. Isn't that kind of the point as well, if we can't promise we'd stay then they need to offer more to make us stay but if you think it's such a bad position then please explain why it garnered results and got the EU around the discussion table?


This is actually a fairly key point: there isn't a set of British aims in the UK we're working towards, there is only the agenda of the current administration.
Exactly my point but thanks for proving it. There is no long term vision for britains needs or at least not a consistent one within the EU and that is partly why we have a go with the flow mentality quite often and doesn't seek to reform the EU enough. It's exactly why despite you're reassurances there is little you could do to actually convince anyone there is likely going to be much change as you admit yourself it'd be inconsistent as ministers change.

Acting like a spoilt child when the EU has better things to do didn't endear us to them. I doubt it helped our negotiating position at all. And, no, I don't think that other countries will "bend around our finger when we ask", I think that achieving our goals in Europe requires patient diplomacy and consensus building. Not as showy as Cameron's "renegotiation" but a lot more effective.
Is it really spoiled to listen to your people and try and get results before they choose to remain or leave the EU? If you feel that then it's because you've let your pro EU bias get ahead of any respect or acknowledgement of what the political and public opinion was within this country. If the EU thinks like this too then it'd be another damn shame that would reflect there lack of respect for the local public. Cameron didn't hold a referendum for fun despite your charicatures, he did it based on heavy public desire for reform and when the referendum was promised he needed to get changes to the EU. It's pretty 50/50 now on the vote so do you think it'd have gone nice without any reforms?

Yes, just as we've achieved far more than Cameron achieved with his stunt in the last 15 or 20 years; we'll achieve far more in the next 15 or 20 years. It won't be showy but it will be effective. More than anything we need our leaders, and our country, to engage more sensibly in Europe; it's impossible to achieve goals when you can't define those goals and you don't engage in the process needed to achieve those goals
Here is where the goal posts get a little hazy. Admittedly we did achieve some stuff during huge changes to the EU but now there isn't as much change going on, it's steadying into the shape it wants to be and given we've seen there is very little EU laws that ever get reversed there is (short of a onslaught of new laws) not going to be as much change within the next 20 years or as much we can influence. You seem awfully bitter about camerons 'stunt' yet it was the right choice given public opinion but we could have always had the vote with out it, hey ho and tell me how well you think that would go :cool: So tell me, what's the next big things we're going to achieve? After the referendum when we choose to stay in and we've already had several compromises where is the next harbour to park britains massive special status? Sorry but I don't believe the big new sovereignity restoring, immigration control devolving, welfare and public service controls, public opinion loving EU is going to prop up in the next 10 or 15 years. The boats have already set a course and it's not that direction but if you really believe we'd accomplish so much then feel free to give a few examples where we're likely to get what we want? You know, like the old brexit can never show us how the future will be economically argument. Give us some magic ideas about where the future of the EU compromises. Or don't, I don't feel it'll work out anyway and we might have to just disagree on this issue.
 
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Gux

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So because some people including me don't have a GCSE in anything are voting out we are retards.

I have an IQ of about 130, I know stuff I don't even know how I know. But because I have not obtained an establishment certificate of education I am certified dumb.

Is that not retarded to think people who are uneducated are not aware of what is going on in the world.

Education is not fact, uneducated is also not fact. Your point is?????? :rolleyes:

Yeah pretty much. If that was not the case then the split would have been around 50%, between educated people and dumb people. Instead the split is 70%+ for educated people to stay in. Pretty weird that....

UKIP split is something like 97% for leave and they got nearly 4 million votes in the last election. Have you ever seen UKIP voters on TV? Let's say, they don't exactly come off as smart educated people, with a coherent argument as to why to leave.
 
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Oh dear...
http://news.sky.com/story/1696188/we-believe-boris-eu-poll-blow-for-pm

ComRes asked 2,043 people who was "more likely to tell the truth about the EU" in a poll for The Independent and the Sunday Mirror.

Some 45% opted for Leave campaigner Mr Johnson, while 21% said David Cameron, who wants the UK to remain in the 28-nation bloc.

By a smaller margin, 39% to 24%, campaigners for Leave generally were considered "more likely to tell the truth" than campaigners for Remain.
:p
Exactly as I said, as soon as cameron started being so biased towards remain, kicking other active politicians out of using the civil service and basically not being straight or unbiased with the public then he botched the remain campaign and betrayed british people in giving them access to government fed unbiased information. People won't trust the man based on his actions and his position any more but that is quite sad, he could have still advocated remain while giving unbiased information and the remain side would have had so much more credibility. Still, wisdom can come from anywhere (even idiots like cameron) so we can't ignore everything he says but man did he lose credibility fast.
 
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Yeah pretty much. If that was not the case then the split would have been around 50%, between educated people and dumb people. Instead the split is 70%+ for educated people to stay in. Pretty weird that....

UKIP split is something like 97% for leave and they got nearly 4 million votes in the last election. Have you ever seen UKIP voters on TV? Let's say, they don't exactly come off as smart educated people, with a coherent argument as to why to leave.

Your making your self look a right tool :D

Maybe its the case people who are GCSE/A-Level educated went on to do Apprenticeships or Skill Manual Labour work and can see their jobs are under threat because of a massive influx of workers, who work for less and force ours wages down.

Maybe that's the truth
 
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Your making your self look a right tool :D

Maybe its the case people who are GCSE/A-Level educated went on to do Apprenticeships or Skill Manual Labour work and can see their jobs are under threat because of a massive influx of workers, who work for less and force ours wages down.

Maybe that's the truth

Did you think it was a good thing that you couldn't get a plumber to do a basic job for less than a hundred quid an hour not so long ago then?! Pushing up prices by restricting supply doesn't sound like it's in anyones interest but the trades themselves..
 

Gux

Gux

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Your making your self look a right tool :D

Maybe its the case people who are GCSE/A-Level educated went on to do Apprenticeships or Skill Manual Labour work and can see their jobs are under threat because of a massive influx of workers, who work for less and force ours wages down.

Maybe that's the truth

Yeah that's called capitalism. Leaving the EU won't change the capitalism system we have got in place here.

Says it all, if British home owners, rather hire EU migrants to do work than their own citizens. Maybe try and compete or offer better services....

Nah, screw that, close the borders :D

Also how does this only effect low skills workers? Surely this should effect everyone equally more or less, including high skilled workers right? Are you saying there are no high skilled workers from Poland who want to get a better wage in the UK?

How is it then that educated people seem to support the vote in by 70%? They should have similar problems with highly educated EU migrants
 
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Soldato
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Yeah pretty much. If that was not the case then the split would have been around 50%, between educated people and dumb people. Instead the split is 70%+ for educated people to stay in. Pretty weird that....

UKIP split is something like 97% for leave and they got nearly 4 million votes in the last election. Have you ever seen UKIP voters on TV? Let's say, they don't exactly come off as smart educated people, with a coherent argument as to why to leave.

Define dumb?

What is dumb? Please do enlighten me as I am very intrigued on your definition of dumb. :confused:
 
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[TW]Fox;29497359 said:
Did you think it was a good thing that you couldn't get a plumber to do a basic job for less than a hundred quid an hour not so long ago then?! Pushing up prices by restricting supply doesn't sound like it's in anyones interest but the trades themselves..

Yeh your right i should be working for minimum wage. **** costs of tools , materials and travel.
 
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I find it the other way around. Let's face the music, most EU polls, show that people with intelligence that have done more than just the basic secondary schools are voting to stay in.

Dumb people with only GCSE's are voting out. These same dumb people are afraid of immigration and "people taking our jobs". Clearly these dumb people do not have the skills and inteligence to compete with migrants that can barely speak english :D

If anyone is afraid of anything is competition from migrants and from the EU. Best case to leave, "so they stop taking our jobs". And that's the argument from dumb people and the leave campaign

:D

I don't mind who flips my burgers. Some hipster with their degree in animal psychology or a Romanian potato picker.
 
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Yeah that's called capitalism. Leaving the EU won't change the capitalism system we have got in place here.

Says it all, if British home owners, rather hire EU migrants to do work than their own citizens. Maybe try and compete or offer better services....

Nah, screw that, close the borders :D

1. I don't house bash, I'm commercial & industrial
2. Home-owners think with their wallet, but you get what you pay anyway
3. Who's actually saying close the borders? Apart from the swivel-eyed remain camp

Why is it so optimistic to have a reactive migration policy:rolleyes:
 
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