The Tesla Thread

[adolf hamster]

Ouch, $710 million loss and Musk dodging questions. I wonder how much money he has behind him, because he needs to double production at the moment to even break even. Sounds like it is going down the pan. Shame.

I do wonder if the car company was nothing more than a glorified tech demo and his real plan is to use the success of the tesla battery system to set himself up as a supplier to the automotive old guard.

Or he could not be as savvy as his reputation makes out.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Sounds like it is going down the pan. Shame.

Not wanting to sound like a Tesla Fanboy or anything but people have been saying this for years and they are still here. The media hype around Tesla is just insane, its higher than the government is getting over windrush and has been sustained for years. No other car companies get media scrutiny at such an intensity. Not even VW after dieselgate. The news of VW testing diesel emissions on humans and monkeys (which is frankly barbaric) was dropped after a day.

There were over 40,000 road deaths in the USA last year and one of those was in a Tesla, how many of the others were in the international news for over a fortnight and is still bought up to this day. That's right, zero.

I will admit the church of Elon really don't help themselves though.

They are loosing so much money because of how much investment they are making. The company is not being run like a car company that has been around for over 100 years, if they ran the company like that they would have never been able to launch the Model S let alone anything else. Its being run like a silicon valley start up which run on the mantra of grow or die, Tesla isn't going to make a profit for a long time to come.

Sure the Model 3 isn't profitable yet but the Model S and X is very profitable.

I would be more worried about companies like Ford and PSA who frankly appear to have their finger in their own rear when it comes to the electrification of cars. EV mandates are growing around the world and getting stricter and more ambitious as we go (just look at China for instance) and those companies have barley even noticed. Once the tipping point has been reached with demand the desirability for ICE is just going to fall off a cliff and those that are not making the right moves now will die.

 

[Glaucus]

Ouch, $710 million loss and Musk dodging questions. I wonder how much money he has behind him, because he needs to double production at the moment to even break even. Sounds like it is going down the pan. Shame.

Lots of money, and a loss was expected, and no they aren't going down the pan. Unless you want to put weight being paid for articles.

Simply they can borrow huge amounts of money untill they do become profitable and there's no signs of that money pipeline coming to an end.

Expect them to make a profit by the end of the year before going negative again next year with the ramp up of the truck and model y.
As well as the ramp of model s this year which will get the car itself into profit like the X and s. Elon is now personally signing anything of that on its own or collectively over a year becomes more than a million. Purley to show they can be positive if they don't reinvest and then some into building the company.so only expect Taht to last till end of year.

 

[sesevans]

.....
Simply they can borrow huge amounts of money untill they do become profitable and there's no signs of that money pipeline coming to an end.
.....
.

On balance I agree that they will at some point become profitable but last night's call was a real kick in the .... to the representatives of its investors.

Fact: Tesla is a highly levered company that is extremely cash hungry (negative working capital) and depends on its investors to raise the money needed to reach profitability. It is not a vote of confidence when your bonds maturing in 2025 are trading at 89 (11 points below par). It suggests that future funding will need to be done at considerably higher pricing.

Personally I am at least as interested in SpaceX as I am in Tesla, perhaps more so. I believe the potential for collaboration between these two sister companies is considerable.

 

[Mr Jack]

Tesla is one of the most ridiculously over-valued companies in the world today. It's a dropped a bit, but it was - at one time - capitalised at a higher value than Ford. Ford! Great job by Elon to make it so, and the Roadster and S really blazed a trail but now? The iPace is a better car than the Model X. Better built, faster, better equipped, nicer looker, etc., etc. and it's only the start. Big, capable, manufacturers are going to stomp all over Tesla's turf.

Which I think Elon is okay with. AFAICT, he made Tesla to make electric cars mainstream and, well, it looks like he's going to succeed.

 

[Glaucus]

Tesla is one of the most ridiculously over-valued companies in the world today. It's a dropped a bit, but it was - at one time - capitalised at a higher value than Ford. Ford! Great job by Elon to make it so, and the Roadster and S really blazed a trail but now? The iPace is a better car than the Model X. Better built, faster, better equipped, nicer looker, etc., etc. and it's only the start. Big, capable, manufacturers are going to stomp all over Tesla's turf.

Which I think Elon is okay with. AFAICT, he made Tesla to make electric cars mainstream and, well, it looks like he's going to succeed.

there's several things, Tesla is far from just a car company, hence why in the long term, plenty of investors think its going to dwarf such companies and rightly so. As its a new/growing company, it's not trading on its current value, but on what people see the longterm potential.

and no it doesn't look at all like big manufacturers are going to stomp all over tesla.
for a start even if they did build a better car, where are they going to get the batteries needed. mosthaven'tt even started building battery factories yet and those that have aren't going to be producing for several years.

the bolt is a good car, but is getting utterly smashed by model 3 sale figures. Not only that they lose around 9k per car on the bolt as they don't own the battery supply.

and that's before we talk about charging networks, Tesla already has around 400 stations and growing in Europe, while the big manufacturers are planning to roll out just 400 in the next few years and at an average of only 6 stalls per site. compared to teslas 8 and the new ones are getting even larger.

 

[Simon]

Oil companies are the ones who will own the charging stations because you need to have a retail offer whilst you wait for them to charge. Tesla are too small to do this on a global scale

 

[Glaucus]

Oil companies are the ones who will own the charging stations because you need to have a retail offer whilst you wait for them to charge. Tesla are too small to do this on a global scale

tesla already got a pretty global network(at least int he markets they sell to), and they don't need to own the shops, its very rare they aren't situated in such places with shops, restaurants, hotels etc. Although they have started in rolling some out with their own shops, no doubt making even more profit from those places.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Tesla is one of the most ridiculously over-valued companies in the world today. It's a dropped a bit, but it was - at one time - capitalised at a higher value than Ford. Ford! Great job by Elon to make it so, and the Roadster and S really blazed a trail but now? The iPace is a better car than the Model X. Better built, faster, better equipped, nicer looker, etc., etc. and it's only the start. Big, capable, manufacturers are going to stomp all over Tesla's turf.

Tesla is over valued for what it offers today but share prices don't just take that into account. Every week we see a billion dollar 'app' company get bought out, none of them are really worth that much in the traditional sense. Fords share price also reflects the fact that its European operation has been loss making for years and they don't really have an answer to the lowering emissions regulations currently. They have just announced they are stopping making cars in the USA and will only be producing SUV's and trucks, compared to Tesla who have 500k pre-orders for a car they can't build.... doesn't sound like a company that is an attractive investment currently.

The car market is vast currently and there is space for for both Tesla and the usual automakers. Just look at JLR, they only produce 600k cars a year which is relatively small compared to the likes of BMW, Merc and VW. Yet no one is worried about them disappearing anytime soon.

I also disagree with the iPace being a 'better' car, its likely to be better built granted but it doesn't mean its a better car. Does the iPace have a better interior, yes absolutely but its not all about the interior. Its efficiency is far worse as is its range, sure its 0.2 faster to 60 but that's hardly a selling point as both cars are already faster than almost every other car on the road.

As soon as you want to drive more than 100 miles in one direction the Tesla is leaps and bounds ahead because of the charging network that sits behind it. The CCS network is comparatively poor and will be for years compared to the combination of superchargers and the chademo standard Tesla can also use with a 'cheap' adaptor (compared to a £60k-£100k car whats another £500...). The iPace also doesn't have any advanced driver assist features like Auto Pilot or GM Super Cruise, even Pro Pilot in the Leaf is better.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

IPACE with HSE has adaptive cruise with queue assist and steer assist, features also on Velar now as EV isn’t a prerequisite. The Waymo ones don’t need autopilot either, they are pilot 298miles on WLTP is also a lot better than the E-tron 249 which is a bit of a suprise.

In terms of interior the row2 of a model S is pretty poor.

 

[Mr Jack]

I also disagree with the iPace being a 'better' car, its likely to be better built granted but it doesn't mean its a better car. Does the iPace have a better interior, yes absolutely but its not all about the interior. Its efficiency is far worse as is its range, sure its 0.2 faster to 60 but that's hardly a selling point as both cars are already faster than almost every other car on the road.

The iPace has better range and is more efficient than the most comparable Tesla Model X, which costs more anyway. Neither the iPace or the Tesla X are particularly efficient as electric cars go so I'm not sure how big a deal that is in their bracket.

I really like Tesla's; the S in particular is a lovely car, but Tesla have had their segment to themselves for a long time, and they'll struggle to keep pace as bigger rivals start entering their turf. I don't think there's much prospect of them going bust, but I think they'll always be minnows.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

The iPace has better range and is more efficient than the most comparable Tesla Model X, which costs more anyway. Neither the iPace or the Tesla X are particularly efficient as electric cars go so I'm not sure how big a deal that is in their bracket.

No its not, the only official direct efficiency comparison that you can make is using the American EPA cycle which is also something you can actually achieve in the real world.

Tesla 75D (75kwh) achieved 237 miles on the EPA cycle.

Jaguar iPace (90kwh) is estimated to achieve 240 miles on the EPA cycle.

Given the iPace is smaller, lighter and has 11.5 more usable KW's in its battery it's pretty poor on comparatively speaking on efficiency. If the efficiency was better the range would be much more which is far more beneficial from an ownership point of view rather than the additional charging costs.

Also the base iPace isn't comparable to the base model X as the X considerably better equipped and you can charge it for free which can be a huge added value over the life of the car.

The reality is that they are both in two very different segments, the iPace is a crossover and the X is a full sized SUV.

Anyway, back to Model 3, its still going to be a long wait....

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Tesla have a special fudge factor on their EPA data compared to the current mainstream stuff. Expect to see a 10% “correction” on their EPA numbers soon.

Ironically the IPACE is the one that homologates as an SUV in the states.

 

[Jez]

Tesla have a special fudge factor on their EPA data compared to the current mainstream stuff. Expect to see a 10% “correction” on their EPA numbers soon.

Do you have any further reading on this out of interest? Interested in anything to do with EV stuff.

 

[VincentHanna]

All the information I've ever seen from Tesla owners indicates the EPA is pretty much spot on.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

All the information I've ever seen from Tesla owners indicates the EPA is pretty much spot on.

Indeed which might mean other OEM might exceed their currents EPA rating.

 

[Mr Jack]

No its not, the only official direct efficiency comparison that you can make is using the American EPA cycle which is also something you can actually achieve in the real world.

There are independent comparisons in the links I gave. The iPace has more range and is more efficient. You're right that it is not a directly comparable car but simply the closest yet. My point is simply that Tesla no longer has the high value EV segment to itself. Bigger car makers are coming in and making very good cars that will directly compete with Tesla, and these companies have bigger budgets and vastly more car making experience and larger dealer networks. Tesla will struggle to compete.

 

[adam cool dude]

https://electrek.co/2018/04/02/tesla-model-3-production-rate-elon-musk/

Over 2000 units a week. Dividing that by 7 days is close to 300 Model 3s a day. He mention he also expects this number to grow comfortable in the next 7 days. Its expected to have an "official" confirmation via public statement this week to investors. Excellent news

I am guessing that must be like 90% automated by this point? Then increasing production will mean additional assembly lines now the nooks and crannies is figured out? Thats a complete guess though

Volvo made 52000 cars last month. Two thirds if that Tesla have made in their first quarter. It is a drop in the ocean and Volvo are a tiny company in comparison to the big boys.

 

[Glaucus]

Volvo made 52000 cars last month. Two thirds if that Tesla have made in their first quarter. It is a drop in the ocean and Volvo are a tiny company in comparison to the big boys.

But they also make cars in every market. Model s and X are already leaders and model 3 is expected to be model leader any week now.
Meanwhile Tesla has secured years worth of cobalt, well into building battery factory and have a decent and growing charging network.
Volvo and other might be able to produce cars, but atm there is no battery supply for them to ramp up and even if they do they are lieklyof to lose money from each car like the bolt as they have to pay silly prices for batteries.

It is a myth that normal car companies can just ramp up like they do for ice.

 

[adam cool dude]

But they also make cars in every market. Model s and X are already leaders and model 3 is expected to be model leader any week now.
Meanwhile Tesla has secured years worth of cobalt, well into building battery factory and have a decent and growing charging network.
Volvo and other might be able to produce cars, but atm there is no battery supply for them to ramp up and even if they do they are lieklyof to lose money from each car like the bolt as they have to pay silly prices for batteries.

It is a myth that normal car companies can just ramp up like they do for ice.

Of course not but say a company like Toyota's financial clout Tesla just cannot compare with. Infact Toyota could just buy Tesla out right now if they wanted to. Once it becomes a completely viable solution and they put all their resources into it then they will overtake quite easily.