Caporegime
- Joined
- 18 Oct 2002
- Posts
- 33,188
Never before has a team needed more than 79 points to get 4th, that was once, never before have two teams finished above 90 points before, the average points required for 4th is somewhere around the 71-72 point mark, and you suggested that Utd needed 94 points to get 4th even though the record for a prem league title is 95 points and most often when the title breaks the 90 point barrier there is a big gap down to second.
You seem to be forgetting, that if the top two are better, then the next two down are more likely to lose more points against those sides.
Chelsea managed to pansy out and drop points to Arsenal, Utd, Liverpool maybe, away from home as they went for the draw. Where Chelsea could get more points would be against those teams, but if they did so, it would mean those teams have less points.
If City/Chelsea do better this coming season, it would most likely mean Liverpool/Arsenal drop a few more points against them bringing the points needed for 4th lower, not higher. The teams don't exist in a vacuum, for City to do better it means the rest of the league will have to do on average worse because those extra points has to mean less points for someone else.
79 points for fourth was an outlier, a severe outlier, the next highest was 76 I think, then normally the 68-73point bracket to get 4th. It's incredibly unlikely to be 79 points for 4th again, and 79, or 15points more than Utd had, is a ridiculously long way from the 94 points you're suggesting with 30 more points required. 94 points would almost certainly win the title.
You seem to be forgetting, that if the top two are better, then the next two down are more likely to lose more points against those sides.
Chelsea managed to pansy out and drop points to Arsenal, Utd, Liverpool maybe, away from home as they went for the draw. Where Chelsea could get more points would be against those teams, but if they did so, it would mean those teams have less points.
If City/Chelsea do better this coming season, it would most likely mean Liverpool/Arsenal drop a few more points against them bringing the points needed for 4th lower, not higher. The teams don't exist in a vacuum, for City to do better it means the rest of the league will have to do on average worse because those extra points has to mean less points for someone else.
79 points for fourth was an outlier, a severe outlier, the next highest was 76 I think, then normally the 68-73point bracket to get 4th. It's incredibly unlikely to be 79 points for 4th again, and 79, or 15points more than Utd had, is a ridiculously long way from the 94 points you're suggesting with 30 more points required. 94 points would almost certainly win the title.