Winter 2017/2018 - Thread

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Man of Honour
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Yeah likewise a few days is one thing - I love the novelty of it and the few days break from routine - if I wanted to deal with it for weeks on end I'd move to Canada, Norway or something - though I'm kind of tempted to do at least one winter somewhere like that proper in my life time.

I'm also fairly prepared (which is kind of LOL in this country especially of late) - good proper winter coat, proper winter boots, etc. seems a lot aren't and just moan instead heh also the inability of so many to adapt to driving conditions, etc. when we do get it makes me want to facepalm.
 
Caporegime
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Well the arctic cold broke in my part of Canada last night.

-27 on my walk into work yesterday, +5 this morning, and back down to -10 tomorrow. The temperature swings here can be ridiculous. :D
 
Man of Honour
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It's 2.4 degrees here with a windchill down to -15 degrees. The wind is hovering around 30mph with gusts up to 42.7mph so far and is still strengthening. There is also supposed to be a heavy band of snow coming our way later. I hope it doesn't though because with this wind any snow is going to be a nightmare.
 
Man of Honour
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This morning's model output looking interesting for the 25th-27th on a knife edge for a potential snow event but such a spread of results it could easily be an early spring like event as well :(
 
Man of Honour
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Met seems to be going for the cold (they've often been right) - others aren't so sure - its all over the place at the moment :s
 
Caporegime
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From Thursday onwards the weather looks set to get progressively colder. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly this happens but we expect colder easterly winds to gradually start making their presence felt with night frost and snow flurries possible on the east coast by the end of the week.Next weekend and into the following will see a "Big Freeze" affecting much northern Europe. There's currently a growing risk of this very cold air and heavy snow hitting the UK and bringing a disruptive end to Winter 2017/18 - Watch this space.
 
Man of Honour
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Yeah a lot of uncertainty how its going to play out - the models seem to want to try and put a lot of colder runs in the closest end of it but persistently trying to put milder runs in the end of it:

SzBW64b.png

Compared to the other 850hPa level I posted above there aren't runs hitting the 10s on the milder side now though and more agreement towards initial cold at least - largely though its looking dry right now so not sure many places will see snow unless that changes.
 
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Caporegime
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UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:
The weekend will be mostly dry, with frost and freezing fog patches clearing to give cold days with sunny spells. Snow flurries may develop across eastern and southern areas where a brisk easterly wind will make it feel bitterly cold. It may be less cold in the far northwest with some rain possible. Into next week it is likely to turn colder with brisk easterly winds, giving a significant wind chill, especially in the south and east. T
his will give the risk of further snow flurries, which may become heavier and more widespread. There is also the risk of more significant snow pushing northeastwards across southern and some central areas. The north and west will be brighter, and it may be less cold across the far northwest at times
 
Man of Honour
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It is far from "nailed on" and while a crude visualisation of it this is a relatively easy to interpret in a generic way of looking at it:

N55TPoW.png

Some debate about how quickly it bounces back and not just bounces back but tends towards almost spring like - a block substantial enough that causes that level of cold shouldn't break down that quickly.

Going down below -15 at 850hPa I don't think has been really seen this winter so far so probably will get at least 1-2 days of reasonable cold at ground level but its largely looking dry so possibly not much in the way of snow.
 
Caporegime
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It is far from "nailed on" and while a crude visualisation of it this is a relatively easy to interpret in a generic way of looking at it:

N55TPoW.png

Some debate about how quickly it bounces back and not just bounces back but tends towards almost spring like - a block substantial enough that causes that level of cold shouldn't break down that quickly.

Going down below -15 at 850hPa I don't think has been really seen this winter so far so probably will get at least 1-2 days of reasonable cold at ground level but its largely looking dry so possibly not much in the way of snow.

Depends where you live, IF the cold like this happens, places more towards the east coast and more especially south east would cop the snowfall. But as is always the way, far too early to say
 
Man of Honour
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Yeah you are right - 10 day accumulation does tend to place east coast and some parts of the south/south east and some parts of Wales less dry:

IcUMjrQ.png

Norwich area looking a little more substantial for precipitation than the country in general:

SmzyLKo.png

Still hanging on a knife edge though :(
 
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