Winter 2017/2018 - Thread

Amp34 · 19 Feb 2018 at 20:37

There's a much easier solution to all this. Go look at the Express weather articles.

They're anticipating it will be cold and snowy, ergo you know it will be normal/mild and rainy/dry.

XeNoN89 · 19 Feb 2018 at 21:46

The model output looks crazy this evening. Potentially serious cold and snow from the weekend

Dave · 19 Feb 2018 at 21:56

Looks like it's going to be the one week of the year where it's warmer up here than daarn saarf! (warmer in a relative, not absolute, sense)

Rroff · 19 Feb 2018 at 21:58

XeNoN89 said:
The model output looks crazy this evening. Potentially serious cold and snow from the weekend

Noticed that beyond 3 days the models seem to be downgrading confidence in the output i.e. even more uncertainty as to what is going to happen. On the various weather forums a lot of poster have swung around to talking about an Armageddon like cold snap LOL think they are getting a bit ahead of themselves.

Neil79 · 19 Feb 2018 at 23:56

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43122036

Rroff · 20 Feb 2018 at 05:50

I hope some of the outliers from this morning's runs don't happen:

Not something we've seen in this country in awhile.

Jokester · 20 Feb 2018 at 12:30

Been a long time since I’ve seen it less than -10, probably 2010 was the last time.

XeNoN89 · 20 Feb 2018 at 12:35

26Feb-2March baiscally guaranteed in the freezer now, and remains cold after that.

Hopefully we get a good dumping of snow everywhere !

Rroff · 20 Feb 2018 at 15:40

Yup things starting to firm up for much more severe cold than we've had it lately and that sudden break down is being pushed away. Snowfall remains a bit of a wildcard though as many setups show it being dry in some cases very dry while there are chances of it picking up a lot of moisture as it comes in over the sea.

UTmaniac · 20 Feb 2018 at 16:27

Going to be gutting to see a "hard winter" return after a few days of sun recently and double digit temps here in Southampton, I was out in shorts and sleeveless jacket earlier.

Rroff · 20 Feb 2018 at 16:38

Yeah the sun is pretty warm today though there is a background chill - shame I don't have an excuse to go out and some stuff I need to do inside

though I might go outside in a bit to paint a 3D model I've been working on.

EDIT: Hope the GEM is wrong - latest update is bringing in increasing patches where temperatures in various parts of the country, predominationly the South East but some parts of the West and North West would drop to around -14C and some odd cases of as low as -17C.

Rroff · 20 Feb 2018 at 18:40

Continuing with the cold theme and pushing away the return to milder.

And a little teaser - way out of the range of any confidence - but those temperatures...

TonyTurbo78 · 20 Feb 2018 at 18:47

And probably zero snow in the south still Roff

Rroff · 20 Feb 2018 at 18:50

Yeah looking generally dry at the moment - still a lot of uncertainty as the exact path in though some of which could bring significant moisture with it.

XeNoN89 · 20 Feb 2018 at 21:04

There will definitely be snow. The air is so cold that there will be convection when it crosses the much milder sea. Computer models won't pick this up until really late

Neil79 · 20 Feb 2018 at 23:43

https://weathertrending.com/2018/02/20/bitter-quickchat-next-weeks-extreme-cold/

Wow

TonyTurbo78 · 21 Feb 2018 at 11:58

Neil79 said:
https://weathertrending.com/2018/02/20/bitter-quickchat-next-weeks-extreme-cold/

Wow

We'll see. This country over exagerates everything when it comes to weather. Would love for it to happen as I like extremes in weather change but I've heard it all before many times. It'll probably be all around us again.

bingham67 · 21 Feb 2018 at 13:55

Cant remember when it snowed in March or potential to snow in March BBC weather saying snow for the 5th and 6th of March where I live I hope not I got to drive to work early morning on the 6th.

Still many day lefts so the potential for the forcecast to change is very possible going by what happened so far and in the past.

XeNoN89 · 21 Feb 2018 at 15:36

bingham67 said:
Cant remember when it snowed in March or potential to snow in March BBC weather saying snow for the 5th and 6th of March where I live I hope not I got to drive to work early morning on the 6th.

Still many day lefts so the potential for the forcecast to change is very possible going by what happened so far and in the past.

2013 we had very heavy snow in March. I nearly got stuck on the M25 on my way to work In Leatherhead

LabR@t · 21 Feb 2018 at 17:16

bingham67 said:
Cant remember when it snowed in March or potential to snow in March BBC weather saying snow for the 5th and 6th of March where I live I hope not I got to drive to work early morning on the 6th.

Still many day lefts so the potential for the forcecast to change is very possible going by what happened so far and in the past.

feb/march have the highest chance of snow I think.